Blogging for the environment

Earlier in the day Tuesday last week, before I read about the Blog Action Day for the Environment, I posted Amazing energy savings to be made across the country. It was on the tremendous waste of energy by overly air-conditioned rooms in hotel.

If you regard this as a serious environmental problem, an economic efficiency, or just plain uncomfortable to you, on your next visit to a hotel, say something to management. Better yet, contact the chain.

You can also look at your own energy usage.

Do you heat above 68 degrees F. (20 C) or cool below 77 (25)?

Do you leave lights on all over your house even if you won't be back to a room for awhile? Why not leave on just enough light to find the light switch in the room next to the one you are in?

Do you drive when you could take the bus, bicycle or walk? Does your city discourage alternative transportation? Write your council members or mayor about your "favorite" disincentive to save energy.

See also

A Clean, Quiet Revolution

Ethanol vs. Gasoline, A Changing Marketplace

What Bush should have said about oil

Coal or solar?

Little decisions can lead to big changes

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
- Robert Frost, "The Road Not Taken"

There are several science fiction stories about space navigators who can see all the possibilities of a ship's travel and can choose the fastest and safest one. One mistake can lead to disaster.

We lesser mortals can't even predict what effect our choice of lunch may have on our future.

I or my wife had made many little decisions that have had a profound effect on our life, an effect that we could not conceive of at the time.

When I was already in college, I made a decision overnight to run for the presidency of a subdistrict of the Methodist Youth Fellowship. I had once declined to do so, but something led me to change my mind. I had a friend nominate me at the meeting the next day, and I won against the listed candidate. Probably because I was male. This was the late 50s.

Once in office, I started dating the elected secretary of the subdistrict. She had voted against me, but after almost 50 years, two children, and three grandchildren, she doesn't regret either decision.

After a couple of years at Univac, I had made an attempt to get a transfer to Norway, but my supervisor didn't follow through on whatever needed to be done. Sometime later, my wife said, "If you still want to go to Europe, don't let us stop you," meaning herself and our kids. So, I made another attempt and we wound up living in Europe for six years.

While we were in Stockholm, my wife struck up a conversation on a subway with another American. We visited each other's houses and were given a standing invitation to visit them in their cabin in Brimson, Minnesota.

When we finally moved back to Minnesota, we spent most of our vacation time in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, but that became less frequent because we never seemed to co-ordinate our vacation time. One year we decided to take up the Brimson invitation over a long weekend. The story is longer yet with other little decisions, but we wound up buying property in Brimson.

Once we had built a cabin on our property, we found that the four-hour drive was becoming tiresome. My wife's employer had an office in Duluth and had been encouraging its employees to work from home whenever possible. So, she asked for a transfer to Duluth.

As usual, there are more little decisions, but one I made was to do more writing. And so here I am, a regular columnist in a local alternative paper and a sometime blogger.

It has happened here!

"Supreme Court Refuses to Hear Torture Appeal", New York Times, Oct. 10, 2007

The case of Khaled el-Masri who claims to have been illegally detained and tortured by the United States government has been dismissed by the Supreme Court. The grounds, it would reveal state secrets. Who decided el-Masri was a terrorist suspect? The Federal government. Who decided state secrets would be revealed? The Federal government.

Whatever happened to checks and balances? This sound eerily like It can't happen here by Sinclair Lewis.

In other words, who decides who a terrorist is? George Bush. Who decides the evidence can't be revealed? George Bush. This is the guy who says he is bring freedom and democracy to the rest of the world.

See also Review of It can't happen here and What do I have to hide? Plenty!

Where has "tough on ..." gotten us?

I sent this sent this email to my Representative, Jim Oberstar.

Apropos "Democrats seem ready to extend wiretap powers", New York Times, Oct. 9, 2007

I would hope that Democrats after all these years would counterattack the Republicans charges of "soft on..." with "we want to be effective on..."

Such is the case with Bush and Company's eroding of the Constitution with their security paranoia. They may have been "tough on terrorism" but they've been singularly "ineffective on terrorism".

From my latest Reader Weekly article, Putting up with putdowns, Sept. 27, 2007

Miracle! Before I sent this column I found the “lost chord”. It is “soft on…” It is an argument that Democrats have let Republicans get by with for too long. The Republicans discussion stoppers have been “soft on crime”, “soft on Communism”, and “soft on terrorism”. This hard-nosed approach has yet to make any of these disappear. Soviet Communism self-destructed but it lives on in Putin’s petro-authoritarianism. And we still have China and Castro.

Amazing energy savings to be made across the country

Almost anytime I visit a hotel in the the warmer months, I almost get knocked off my feet as I enter the room. It is "freezing". Generally the dial on the air-conditioner is twisted way over to the cold side. At a recent stay the room had a digital setting. It was set at 65° F. (18° C.)!

Many people would not tolerate a temperature that low in the winter. Many energy experts recommend a heating temperature of 68° F (20° C.). On the other hand, they recommend a cooling temperature of 77° F (25° C.). That is the temperature of a nice balmy day in the summer.

I tried looking for something about the actual savings with Google, but most of what I found was either about guests complaining about rooms being too cold or about replacing old equipment with newer, more efficient equipment.

I did see one item about a hotel saving $21,000 per year by improved A/C.

Creative fallacies

I'm reading George Soros' The Age of Fallibility, and I recently read columns by Diane Ravitch on No Child Left Behind (1) and David Brooks on the co-opting of classical conservatism by the Republican Party (2). Or should I say, the co-opting of the Republican Party by people who are certain they hold the truth.

No Child Left Behind and the "war on terrorism" have created more problems than they have solved and diverted resources away from possibly better solutions. We have looked for the quick fixes, the Father knows best solutions, rather than engage in a sober discussion of what the real problems are. We deal with solving problems with the certainty we know the solutions rather than deal with the uncertainty that we won't have a perfect solution.

For example, peace demonstrations are not the answer to extricating our country from the Iraq war. Demonstrations are more mob rule than governance. A better strategy would be to write columns, blogs, letters to the editor, letters to representatives showing the fallacies of the current course. This strategy would have to also suggest ideas to deal with the problems. For example, what do you do for all the Iraqis that have helped the U.S. forces?

The "war on terror" like the "war on drugs" before it is a misleading choice of words. The "war on terror" has reinforced the view that a military solution will adequately deal with criminals who are certain that their view of the world will prevail. We can't bomb Hamburg because terrorists are living and plotting there.

We need to counter terrorism more with ideas than bullets. The U.S. has blown many chances to show that the bin Laden version of Muslim is contrary to many teachings of the Qu'ran. We need to show that an ideology will not bring about a heaven on earth, but that an open society will give us more opportunities to get closer to a just world. We need to counter certainty with possibilities.

(1) "Get Congress Out of the Classroom", Diane Ravitch, New York Times, Oct. 3, 2007

(2) "The Republican Collapse", David Brooks, New York Times, Oct. 5, 2007

It's a sad day in the funnies

The comic section of newspapers has come a long way from depicting the foibles of adults, kids, and animals and the feats of heros and super-heros. Nowadays we see more political satire such as "Doonesbury" and "Mallard Fillmore" and more real-life stories such as "For better or for worse" and "Funky Winkerbean". Now we get involved in the trials and tribulations of characters who seem to be part of our daily lives.

People have died before in the funnies, for example, Ellie Patterson's mother died some years ago. But today we get two signals that death has happened. Ellie's father's second wife finds him immobile and Lisa Moore's dream has a masked tuxedoed man coming to escort her elsewhere. It was hard to get up from the breakfast table without a lump in the throat or a tear in the eye.

Chaos, noise, and chance can reward the prepared

One of my coffee companions is always trying to put certain group behaviors into some large philosophical context. Some of us think that people are more independent than stereotypes. That is, our lives are governed as much by chance as by some cultural norms. It is chance that often leads to extraordinary happenings.

Today was another ordinary day that was extraordinary. It was ordinary in that I walked to a coffee shop, went to the library, and got a haircut. Well, not quite, I wouldn't ordinarily do the last two this week.

I went to the library to check for a missing book. I had returned a downtown book to the branch library, but the records showed I didn't return it. I was sure I had and couldn't find it in the house or either of our vehicles. Yesterday I double checked the downtown library. Today I checked the branch library, and, lucky me and lucky library, it was shelved in proper Dewey order in the wrong library. This is part of the chaos, a librarian was probably rushed and shelved the downtown book locally.

While looking for the missing book, I saw "The Language Police" by Diane Ravitch. It's about censorship and bowdlerization in the schools. The jacket says it's "a case of the bland leading the bland." I'll have to get this book when I finish those I am currently reading.

I normally wouldn't be getting a haircut this week and I would normally have gotten it earlier, but the barber isn't at my beck and call. Being later allowed me time to go to the library. Because I went to the barber after leaving the coffee shop and library, I returned home on the other side of the street.

I've been thinking of a photo essay on "The ugly side of Duluth", all the streets and sidewalk needing maintenance or repair, the overgrown trees and shrubs blocking the sidewalk, and so on. As I walked by a small green area of UMD, I noticed two pop cans on an otherwise neatly kept area. It was an interesting juxtaposition with all the mushrooms growing because of the recent rains.

Just as I put my camera back in my case, I heard a car honk. I looked up and saw a car braking for a deer running across the road. It was gone in the brush on the other side of the street before I could get my camera out.

As I continued I saw a deer peeping over a hedge in a yard. I got out my camera and managed one picture before it bounded around the house. Then I saw another deer on the other side of the yard. I kept taking pictures as fast as I could and got one very clear one with the deer trotting towards the back yard. As I was trying for a few more, I noticed that the camera would no longer zoom. I had pushed the off button instead of the shutter. More chaos.

Thatcher's law has been proved again: "The unexpected happens; you had better prepare for it."

See also my two identically titled articles, One thing leads to another (Aug. 4, 2005) and One thing leads to another (Nov. 10, 2005)

One definition of wit

As I was sorting through the scraps of paper on my desk, I discovered that I left one thought out of Putting up with putdowns. It was related to our seeming ability to rapidly counter or neutralize conversation-stoppint putdowns.

Miss Palmer, my high school English teacher defined wit as that which we have on the way home that somebody else had at the party.

MyNation wins Tiddly-Winks championship

When I saw the New York Times headline, "Germany Wins Women's World Cup Again", I thought all Germans won the World Cup? No, some German's won the Women's Soccer World Cup. Undoubtedly many supported this team, if not in money or attendance, at least in spirit. That can give a team drive, but how much real contribution did all Germans make to the team's success.

Somehow, it seems ludicrous to me that one should automatically have great loyalty to a sports team because they "represent" a geographical area, be it one high school of many in a town or be it one team selected from many from a country. When I watch a sports events, which is generally because my host has not given me much choice, I cheer for all contenders. I feel great when someone makes a great play and I feel down when someone makes a mistake, whatever side they are on.

It may be a good substitute for war or other strife, like the Iraqi team winning the Asia cup. Unfortunately, few of the Iraqi team actually lived in Iraq; it's too dangerous for men in shorts. But it did momentarily give many Iraqis a feeling of unity beyond the daily violence.

Ideally, we would work more on co-operative efforts rather than competitive efforts. We do see that in business where companies form alliances across borders to produce a product or service. Too bad these don't generate the excitement and attention that "high-level" sports events do.

Iraq war and riding in a car

The post Iraq war? on Minnesota's in the middle had a comment about not knowing why we are in Iraq and implied the President knows more than we do.

Yeah, we ask someone to drive us somewhere and that person takes a "shortcut". The car gets stuck in the mud and we all have to get out and push, except the driver. The driver keeps encouraging us saying, "I can see solid ground ahead."

Will we ever have representative government?

I was updating my The Moderate Manifesto I checked the links. When I looked at Unity08 I read a few of its pages.

In short, Unity08 thinks that the nominating process is not serving the country. As another choice "we will prepare to hold, in June 2008, the first-ever online convention where millions of Americans will nominate a Unity ticket for President and Vice President of the United States. We will work to achieve ballot access for that ticket in all 50 states. We will elect them to the White House in November 2008." - About Unity08

This sounds great, but I don't think those participating will be representative of the electorate.
According to the survey Unity08 took of its membership, it is 90% with some college or more, 50% over 50, 73% male, 53% business or professional class (slide 26), 90% have high-speed internet access (slide 27), and generally half don't watch politic pundits on TV (slide 28).

Well, I guess that's not so bad. Except for the TV viewing, it looks much like the demographics of the current major parties.

The upside is that people will be participating in the selection in a small time frame, and that the selection of candidates will be as large as the participants wish. The winnowing will not be determined by a small number of people in a few parts of the country.

It will be interesting to see how big a role money will play in this campaign. It might be more a matter of time to post sufficient comments. And there may be ways to game the system, like recruit people by whatever means to vote for a given candidate.

Do decide for yourself if this is a reasonable alternative to the system few really like.

Constitution Day

Did you know today is Constitution Day? I didn't and from what I gather most people don't either. Supposedly this situation will change because federal law now requires schools to provide educational programming on the history of the Constitution on the school day closest to September 17.

I think it's a pity that we don't elevate the honoring of the Constitution to the level of many of the other holidays that venerate "patriotism". The Constitution is more important to our freedom than any war or the flag. It gives the legal underpinning for our government and our rights. Time and time again, the greatest threats to these have been apathy, mob rule, and our own government.

Are demonstrations effective?

The beauty of demonstrating is that you do not have to compromise.

You gather the like-minded, stand around or march with signs, and some people agree with you, most ignore you, and a few attack you, verbally or physically. You feel good about making a statement and go home. But have you really changed anything?

The real way to get change is to get involved politically. To be effective politically you have to appeal to a wide range of people and interests. To appeal to a wide range of people, you have to compromise.

You can get political change by running for office, by supporting those who share many of your views, or by writing reasoned letters to the editor or to office-holders. Or you could start a new political party that addresses issues you think are not being addressed. But to be successful in getting your party's candidates elected, it has to appeal to a wide range of people and interests. See above about compromise.

So it is much easier to demonstrate and feel good.

War in Iraq may lead to relative U.S. decline

I just read Thomas Friedman's "Iraq Through China's Lens" in today's New York Times. He points out that in a major speech Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, talked about economic progress made and economic, political, and environment challenges to be faced. On the other hand, Friedman wrote, the U.S. is focused on the war in Iraq.

It's time for many to reread Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000.

Kennedy's thesis is that the great powers rise and fall relative to each other, even if a power's economy and military is growing, others may be growing faster. Considering how fast China and India are growing relative to the U.S., the U.S. is squandering much of its resources in Iraq and will "fall" further behind China and India.

See also my articles Is the Asian Century coming? and More on a Possible Asian Century.

Why I avoid message boards

I had difficulty getting a new picture into one of my standard picture of the day pages. No matter how carefully I copied the HTML code from flickr, I got the alternate message indicating the picture couldn't be found.

I plugged in the HTML for an old picture, and the page worked fine. I plugged in the HTML for the new picture, and the picture couldn't be found. I used the URLs to look at the pictures in another browser; they were displayed fine.

I went to flickr's message board and picked a couple of topics that seemed relevant. I waded through message after message reporting having difficulties with flickr. And message after message complaining about others' posts. And message after message complaining about complaining about others.

Finally, on a second topic I found a message from flickr staff that my browser's cache may have lost the picture but didn't know it. I diddled around with the browser a bit, including closing it at least once. I was very frustrated and so I just floundered around without noting what I did. However, the important point is that the picture now appears in my web page (http://www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/picture_of_the_day.html today and tomorrow or soon http://www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/picture_2007-09-07.html).

Most of the time I'm not so lucky to find a relevant answer.

An education "then" never was

I'm reading John Allen Paulos' Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences. In Chapter 4, "Whence Innumeracy", he gives an anecdote about his own public school mathematical education.

When he was 10, he calculated a pitcher's ERA as 135. He told his teacher about it, was asked to explain it to the class, did so shyly with quavering voice, and was told by the teacher he was wrong and should sit down. The teacher said an ERA could never be greater than 27.

At the end of the season, the local newspaper published all the major league ERAs. Since this particular pitcher never played again, his ERA was 135. Paulos showed the article to the teacher who gave him a dirty look and told him to sit down.

"His idea of good education apparently was to make sure everyone remained seated."

Paulos received his B.S. in Mathematics in 1967, and so this incident occurred about 1955. I wonder if 1955 is in Mallard Fillmore's "now" for "bad education".

Just as bad as Paulos' incident, when I was in fourth grade and nine (1947), a substitute teacher took a vote on the distance to the Moon. I wonder how long ago Mallard Fillmore's "then" was. I don't think Bruce Tinsley even knows when "then" was; he was born in 1958.

See more in Chapter 4 of Innumeracy about shortcomings of math education. The book was published in 1988 when Tinsley was 30.

See also my recent article "If numbers make you number, you'll lose dollars before you holler".

Why don't men sing?

A couple of years ago I wrote a column "Why Don't Men Sing" for the Reader Weekly. I gave various cultural reasons for men's lack of interest in singing. One I mentioned was our becoming more passive with respect to entertainment because of radio and TV. John Allen Paulos gave a broader look at this problem in Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences.

He wrote that the averages in a small collection and a large collection are about the same but that the extremes will be wider in larger collections. For example, in a small town there may be some good singers, but in a large city there may be some even better singers. When the small town singers performed in their home town, people appreciated them. However, as people in the small town heard the better singers available in the big city on radio and TV, they were no longer satisfied with their neighbors' singing. This is even more discouraging to beginning singers because they are judged by a cruelly higher standard.

We can see the reverse in the performances of small children. Some indulgent adults go overboard in praising any effort by small children, even if half of them can't even be heard. That is, the wonder is not how well they sing, but that they sing at all. It's a pity that encouragement of effort won't last for more of their lives.

Economic development for the sake of economic development

Duluth, Minnesota has a new parking ramp that has been controversial. From a small motel that was losing parking space for some of its RV customers to the mayor getting angry at a medical center for not following through on its supposed agreement with the city to rent some of the space.

As I walk by the First Street Ramp (the one between 3rd and 4th Aves. E.), I wonder if those that conceived it did their homework beforehand. At one o'clock on a weekday, almost none of the metered parking on the street was in use. From what I can see, there are few cars in the ramp. A friend who has used the ramp said that there were few cars in it.

When I don't take a bus or walk to the fitness center in the medical center (SMDC - St. Mary's Duluth Clinic) I park in the Second Street Ramp which is part of SMDC's Second Street Building. Only once have I found the ramp full and I generally find a spot in the first two levels. The cost is $1.25, $1.75, and $2.00 for one, two, and three hours. The city's First Street Ramp is a flat $1.00 per hour, and it is farther away.

One SMDC employee who wrote a letter to the editor of the Duluth News Tribune complained she couldn't afford the rates the city wanted for the First Street Ramp. SMDC does run a shuttle to another city-owned ramp and lot (at the DECC - Duluth Entertainment and Convention Center). SMDC provides the shuttle and the parking free to its employees. The shuttle runs every fifteen minutes at shift changes and otherwise every thirty minutes.

A new Sheraton Hotel and condos does contract for some of the space, but a hotel that occupies a quarter block shouldn't need a ramp that occupies a half block.

My guess is that more frequent bus service throughout the city could have been provided for the cost of this ramp and would have provided just as many "jobs" for a much longer time.

Maybe the Building Trades Council has more clout than the Teamsters, the union of the bus drivers. Maybe certain politicians think changed real estate will provide more tax revenue than basic services. I bet an investigative reporter could come up with all the whys and wherefores and a better cost/benefit analysis than seemingly was done for this project.

For more of my thoughts on Duluth, see "Downtown Duluth: Pizza but no pizzazz!" The sidebar of this article lists more articles on Duluth.

The real lessons from Iraq and Vietnam

President George W. Bush recently spoke of lessons to learned from Vietnam; mainly that if the U.S. leaves, chaos will follow. The true lesson is that if the U.S invades without careful thought is that chaos follows. Put more broadly, the lessons which few military thinkers have learned are:

1) Pick your wars carefully
2) Know thine enemy
3) Have sufficient resources to win
4) Change strategy and tactics as needed
5) Know when you have failed and get out

Wishful thinking passing as political thought

So-called conservatives see the world as they wish it had been and so-called liberals see the world as they wish it would be. Any compromise to work with how it really is is anathema to the hard-core base of either camp.

See "Just what are conservatives conserving?" and "The left just doesn't get it".

The truth ducks when Mallard Fillmore quacks

Bruce Tinsley's "Mallard Fillmore" can make a zinger of an observation on public figures or current fashionable ideas, but more often than not he follows a "conservative" "party line" without regard to the facts.

His August 17, 2007 cartoon on basic subjects and sex education was a "more often than not". He has a teacher "then" telling how she teaches basics and leaves sex education to the parents. He has a teacher "now" telling how she teaches sex and leaves the other stuff to the "street".

His footnote says, "Guess which era had fewer S.T.D.s and unwanted pregnancies and better educated kids?"

First, "then" didn't have AIDS, but it did have syphilis and gonorrhea. I have two great uncles who contracted syphilis, "then" being WWI era. These two diseases were mentioned in mandatory health classes where I went to school.

Unwanted pregnancies are as old as the human race, many the result of rape by otherwise "civilized" men. Given my parents were married in September and I was born in March, I'd say the pregnancy may not have been unwanted but is was probably unexpected. This was 1937-8. One of the girls in my Methodist Youth Fellowship became pregnant in the late 50's.

"Between 1945 and the early 1970s, an estimated 1.5 million unwed American girls and young women, most between ages 16 and 23, surrendered their babies for non-family adoptions." - "Unwed mothers forced to give up babies share their stories", Star Tribune, August 19, 2007

Really great teaching by the parents of "then"!

As to "better-educated kids", when I went to high school and took trigonometry there were some colleges that were offering that subject. Now, many high schools offer calculus and statistics, courses I didn't receive until college. Oh yes, many students from my city high school went on to college and many dropped out.

The Duluth News Tribune has put "Doonesbury" on the editorial page because it is "political". Maybe the Star Tribune should do the same for "Mallard Fillmore". Not!

See also the Wikipedia entry on "Mallard Fillmore".

Water in view but little on the ground

We have been having a drought in northeastern Minnesota and our house is in view of Lake Superior (see "Dandelion in drought").

We did have a fraction of an inch yesterday, and I remarked to my wife that the grass was starting to look green. She replied, "No, it's just a richer brown from the moisture."

If "they" are supposed to learn English...

shouldn't "we" learn the languages of countries we visit, work in, or invade?

I think requiring immigrants to learn English is an idea that ignores history and ignores too many Americans' cultural ignorance.

The U.S. has had many communities throughout its history where languages other than English were spoken. First, there were many Indian communities with a rich linguistic tradition. Second, there were many Spanish communities which were absorbed into the United States by various means. Finally, there were many communities founded by immigrants where they spoke their native language for a generation or more. This was especially true of German immigrants back to the Revolution and Swedish immigrants in the nineteenth century.

Americans have been tourists to many areas of the world without even knowing how to say, "Thank you." After all, "they" all speak English. Many a business deal has been lost because many of the ex-pats haven't or even refuse to learn the local language. Unless an invader has "overwhelming force", an invasion and subsequent occupation will be very difficult without a large number of the invaders knowing the local language and the local culture.

If we want immigrants to "learn English", we should do far better than treating foreign languages in school as a "frill".

Mix solar and hydrogen power?

This morning's Duluth News Tribune had an article about Algeria beginning a massive solar project in the Sahara. One of the goals is to provide a goodly amount of Europe's electricity via undersea cables.

I wondered if it would be better to manufacture hydrogen fuel and ship that. Then the fuel can be used in cars or fuel cells to provide local electricity. The fuel would not be shipped as liquid but in a hydride form. With a quick search of the web I found two companies that produce the hydrides. One has a hydride slurry that safely store and release the hydrogen; I didn't delve into its current status. The other has a sodium-boron-hydride; it was being tested in a Chrysler Town and Country. The storage was equivalent to that for gasoline, the mileage was 30mpg gasoline equivalent, and the range was 300 miles.

Off the top of my head, I'd say transporting energy by cable would be more cost-effective. However, considering the bulk of some hydrides is about the same as gasoline, it would cost only twice as much to ship the hydride. The gasoline doesn't come back, but the depleted hydride does to be re-used.

Open software: follow-up

Every so often I solve a nagging problem by a slightly different approach. I wrote in "Open Software - You get what you pay for" of my difficulties of finding a replacement for Netscape Composer 7. The file I downloaded was corrupted, and I found it difficult to wade through all the help options.

A few days later, I thought to do a search on the name of the downloaded file. Within the first ten hits was a question just like mine. The questioner received several answers, mostly variations telling her that the product in question was no longer supported and had been replaced by Sea Monkey, all-in-one internet application suite. It is available for Windows, Linux GTK2, Mac OS X, and other systems.

The annoying problem that I had a few days ago no longer exists and I can update my web site pages much faster.

Where are the resignations?

And I don't mean resignations assuming responsibility for the collapse of a bridge. Where are the high-level resignations when "something went wrong during my watch"? Once upon a time, British or Japanese ministers would resign if things fell apart during their term, regardless of how culpable they may have been.

How many high-level resignations can you remember? Nixon, of course, but he went out with a long drawn-out fight? Most resignations, other than fatigue, occur because someone disagrees with his or her boss' policies. Others are forced out when popular opinion turns against them and the President asks for the resignation; the resignee rarely offers to resign until asked. For example, John Bolton as Ambassador to the U.N. or Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense.

We won't see Minnesota Lt. Gov./Commissioner of Transportation Carol Molnau or U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales admitting that they let things get out of hand or that they didn't monitor things as thoroughly as they should have. It isn't just Republicans who won't admit responsibility for bad policies. Robert McNamara, Lyndon Johnson's Secretary of Defense, didn't see the "light at the end of the tunnel" until decades after the Viet Nam war ended.

Bridge collapse speculation

The Star Tribune posted an aerial photo taken of the I-35W bridge about three hours before the collapse. One of the tags mentions that the repairs were "using heavy equipment and stockpiled supplies". Could the stockpiled supplies have had greater density than any vehicle that might have gone over the bridge?

Clash of civilizations?

Many of described the current struggle against terrorism as "a clash of civilizations". Al Qaeda and its ilk are not a civilization. They are nihilists with a romantic yearning for a non-existent past. It is more a struggle of good and evil: those who would build and those who would destroy. Unfortunately, some of the "good" think only in destructive terms.

Although Rupert Smith, a retired British general, doesn't discuss the Iraq war in The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World, he makes many points that are instructive for this conflict. Essentially, "Smith argues that the military aims of the West are fundamentally at odds with the structure of Western military organizations, a contradiction which leads military operations into difficulty and potential failure." See "On War and Politics", Robert Farley, American Prospect, July 13, 2007.

Or as Abraham Lincoln said, "As our cause is new, so must we think anew."

Buried notes

I am making one of my rare desk clean-ups. Buried in various piles are scraps of paper with random thoughts. One I just uncovered includes these.

Blog, but writes more in head than on paper or computer.

A bird doesn't learn to fly unless it gets kicked out of the nest. Some birds die; the rest fly.

If your only tool is the military, every problem looks like a war.

Terrorists are criminals, not combatants

"Why Terrorists Aren't Soldiers", New York Times, Aug. 8, 2007, by Wesley K. Clark, former supreme commander of NATO and Kal Raustiala, law professor, is an important definition of who we're against. When Bush treats Al Qaeda members and suspected Al Qaeda members as "unlawful enemy combatants" he increases their stature. He also sees the military as the counter to such "combatants". On the other hand, if we treat them as criminals and use police forces to counter terrorist activities, we stand a much better chance of reducing their threat.

Bring freedom and democracy to who?

President George W. Bush has expressed many times his desire to bring "freedom and democracy" to other lands. His wishful thinking follows many other leaders before him.

Like other Great Powers before them, both Russia and the United States had to grapple with the hard fact that their "universalist" message would not be automatically accepted by other societies and cultures.

Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, pp. 394-395 in the chapter "Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943-1980

For several other examples of expectations of "great" leaders not being met, see

When will they ever learn...

How many lives is a tax cut worth?

Within hours of learning of the collapse of the I-35 bridge, I wondered if a backlash against the anti-tax crowd would develop. If one op-ed piece in today's Star Tribune and several letters are any indication, the backlash has started.

To have an infrastructure we need taxes. If you cut taxes, you reduce your care of your infrastructure. If you reduce care of your infrastructure, people and businesses can't thrive. In fact, some of them may die.

Grover Norquist wants to reduce government to the size he could drown in the bathtub. Well, because of his ilk, some people have drowned in a river.

e-Democracy, User provided support, and other assumptions

The Duluth News Tribune has been running "Mayoral Madness" on its editorial page. It has devised a play-off among the twelve candidates and has online voting for each pair. When today's pair had 56% (Charlie Bell) and 44% (Don Ness), I wondered if Bell got 7 votes and Ness 5. The DNT did not give vote totals.

I found out from a Don Ness campaign update that the vote had been running the other way until late when a huge number of votes were cast for Bell. Did lots of Bell supporters get a cheerleading message and rush to their computers, or did somebody deliberately cast a lot of votes?

The problem with this kind of voting is how easily it can be manipulated. The winner of the vote may get more publicity out of all proportion to the actual interest among real voters. This kind of voting Makes news instead of reporting news.

Another problem is that the electronic voters are even more self-selected than election-day voters. The electronic voters have to have an interest in participating, the tools to participate, and the time to participate. True, election-day voters need these also, but there is more cultural pressure to participate. Current electronic voting also has a heavier burden of "does it really matter."

The whole array of internet opportunites to participate in discussions or solving your own problems annoys me.

There are thousands and thousands of discussion boards on almost any subject. If you participate, you should participate. When I was a sysop on GEnie, a defunct private precursor to the web, people called those who only read "lurkers". I didn't like the term because it implied that they were spies rather than those who may not have had much to say. Those who do participate in discussion boards have to spend a lot of time reading and writing their messages. Even one message board could take an hour a day to read new messages and reply to a few. If the message board is very popular, you could get an overwhelming number of responses to your message. If it is not popular, you may never get an answer to your question.

Even if a message board is popular you may never get an answer to your question. This can be especially true of product support message boards. It could be you didn't phrase your question correctly, few are interested in your problem, or if interested, no other user has a good answer to your problem. Meanwhile, every few days you work your way through the log-in process, work your way through new messages, and go away disappointed. I much prefer direct email support, even if I sometimes get completely unsatisfactory answers.

Open Software -You get what you pay for

I've been busy updating my website with some new ideas (to me) and am getting tired of some of the pecularities of Netscape Composer 7.2. I looked for a later version but Netscape 9 is only a browser.

I found that Mozilla Suite replaces it and tried downloading it. When I try to open the downloaded package, my system tells me it has damaged files. I checked the Mozilla website but any support seems too complicated for the time I want to spend.

I guess I'll put up with Composer 7.2 for awhile longer.

Words from numbers

As I looked at a square in a SuDoKu puzzle, I said, "9 can't go here and 8 can't go here, so 6 must go here", I realized that SuDoKu is a game of can'ts.

For more fun with words, see my Homonym Homilies.

Gender-neutral language?

Many want to use language that is wholly gender-neutral but I think many attempts will be clumsy, even one many of us choose without thinking.

Chairor or chairperson instead of chairman or chair comes to mind. Of course, is a person something to sit in? Usage does make chair more acceptable than the first two choices; "the chair recognizes" is standard formal meeting usage.

Mailperson or fireperson thankfully have fallen by the wayside in favor of mail carrier or fire fighter.

The Unitarian-Universalists, who believe in the free and responsible search for truth have denied the truth of Walt Whitman's wishes. He did not want one word of his poems changed. But the UU hymnal "Singing the Living Tradition", in the name of gender-neutrality, has changed his "the men who govern you" to "those who govern you". My gosh, how can you take out a syllable from a poem?

One could use "one" as the pronoun for a person in general, but one finds that the use of "one" as a pronoun a bit outdated or clumsy.

"He or she", "him or her", "his or hers" have had some popularity for talking or writing about a person in general, but I find them clumsy also.

Popular usage has found the solution, but strict grammarians don't like it. "Someone left their wallet on the store counter" makes perfect sense to most people, but strict grammarians would complain about lack of agreement in number between the main subject and the pronoun referencing it. However, any language that follows the same rules for all time is a dead language. A living language, especially in a democracy, follows the rules made by today's speakers, not speakers of two hundred years ago.

Sure, many of us will rave and rant about usages we don't like. Like, they feel uncomfortable to our ear, you know. My teachers spoke against using "kid" for "child", but today's teachers easily use "kids" to refer to their students.

For a fun reference on language, read "The Power of Babel" by John McWorter. He gives many examples and explanations on how languages change.

Ron Paul for president?

Christopher Caldwell wrote a very interesting article about Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX) candidacy for president (“The Antiwar, Anti-Abortion, Anti-Drug-Enforcement-Administration, Anti-Medicare Candidacy of Dr. Ron Paul”, New York Times, July 22, 2007). In it he asserts that "Ron Paul will not be the next president of the United States". I sent a letter to the New York Times that this is making news rather than reporting news.

Such writing tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. People decide not to "throw their vote away" for "somebody who can't win" and throw it away anyway by voting for somebody whom they don't agree with as much.

On many issues Ron Paul is an appealing candidate to me; on many other issues I would rather not see him as president. But his great strength is he votes and speaks what he believes in, not what he thinks voters want to hear. When one votes for such a candidate, you know what you're going to get.

I didn't like Barry Goldwater's bellicosity in 1964 and voted for Lyndon Johnson. Johnson won and we got Vietnam.

See also my article “Making news or reporting news”.

Livability of cities

I sent the following email to a Duluth city councillor who is proposing an amendment to the city's tall grass and rubbish ordinance. I doubt whether the amendment will do any good considering how little money Duluth or any other city has for enforcement.

I appreciate your concern about the livability of Duluth, but as a walker, I wonder if your amendment to the rubbish and tall grass ordinance will have much effect.

Laws and ordinances have three purposes:

to provide guidance to people of good faith (yellow lines to divide streets)
to punish people of bad faith after the fact (burglary laws and so forth)
to make legislators feel good (flag burning amendments)

Given the current financial support of government by citizens, I would say the mowing ordinance comes more under purpose 3 then purpose 2.

My grounds for saying this are the effectiveness of the snow shoveling ordinance and the snow shoveling hot line. It’s not that city employees are not responding to requests in a timely fashion; they do as I recently found out about shrubbery blocking a sidewalk. The problem is that it is rare for citizens to call in about obvious problems.

For example, dozens of students walk to UMD or Woodland Middle School, but often over half of the sidewalks on 19th Ave, E. 8th St., Woodland Ave., or St. Marie St. are not shoveled in a timely fashion after a snow storm. I doubt many students bother calling the snow shoveling hot line.

I could call in dozens of properties in this same area that have shrubbery blocking half or more of the sidewalk or trees hanging over the sidewalk at eye level. Surprise, on Garden St with all of its nice yards or city trees on one of the avenues either side of Lake Ave. just north of Superior St. But, like many people, I’m reluctant to make a “nuisance of myself” or even spend the time calling in with sufficient details for action.

I’m sure that city can’t afford to have a “walkability patrol” when it can’t afford enough police to strictly enforce the speed limits on Arrowhead Road, Snively, or Woodland Ave.

I wrote an article on walkability for the Reader Weekly three years ago:

http://www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/walking_2004-10-21.htm

Many of these problems still exist.

In any case, thanks for your concern about the livability of Duluth. I wish I could feel confident that your efforts will make a difference.

Are "Patriots" Good Citizens

The Fourth of July, Independence Day, is coming and many people are feeling patriotic. They will be flying flags, saying the Pledge of Allegiance, and singing the Star-Spangled Banner. But is this really patriotism? For my thoughts, see Are "Patriots" Good Citizens, from the Reader Weekly, July 1, 2004.

Surprising Google ranking

I've noticed that one of my April Fool's articles for the Reader Weekly has been getting many hits recently, but I didn't know why. When I did a search for its URL, www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/april_fool_2000-04-01.htm, I found no references except my own. However, when I did a search for billionaire and Duluth, this page and one other of mine were the top two out of over 26,000 results. I'll let you visit the page to find out what the interest is.

Another humor article, "Major Food Groups" has been getting even more hits, even more than this blog. Again, I find no references to the URL. When I search for "Major food groups" it is not in the top 30. When I add "chocolate", it is second out of over 25,000 results.

Gosh, if I can only figure the right tags to put in all of my pages to get this kind of ranking.

Responsive Bureaucrat

I have long been bothered by those who think "responsive bureacrat" is an oxymoron. In my experience, government employees, especially in Minnesota, take the title "civil servant" seriously.

I recently got tired of shrubbery blocking the sidewalk at a particular address and called a city hotline about it. The shrubbery was cut back within a day, not the week or two I had expected.

In appreciation, I sent the follow email to the Director of Public Works with copies to the Mayor of Duluth and a couple of city councilors. Both the Director and the Mayor responded with thank you emails.

Good Afternoon,

I have long been bothered by all the properties where sidewalks aren’t shoveled in the winter and trees and shrubs are allowed to block the sidewalk all year round. I’ve been reluctant to be a “tattle-tale” but one hedge really bothered me.

Over a month ago, I asked a resident at that address to clip it back. He, who probably only drove up to the rear entrance, came around the front and was amazed at how far over the sidewalk it went. He said he would call the property management company. About two weeks later I saw a crew mowing the lawn and hoped that the hedge would be cut back. The next day it was still untouched.

Yesterday I called the Sidewalk Snow Removal Hotline and left a message about this property. I hoped the city would prompt the owner to cut the hedge back in a week or two. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the hedge was cut back this morning. It could be cut back further yet but at least fewer people will be walking in the path worn in the boulevard.

One down, hundreds to go.

Thanks to Tom Kasper and anyone else involved in this little improvement in the walkability of Duluth.

Protecting the patient or protecting the doctor?

The cost in "An unnecessary health care cost" was piddling compared to a CYA cost that will be sent to Medicare and Blue Cross on my behalf - $1576 for an echocardiogram and stress test that I saw no need for.

Every so often a doctor hears a noise in my chest that he or she doesn’t like. Years ago a family doctor prescribed an echocardiogram and nothing abnormal was found. About ten years ago I was hospitalized overnight for a "heart attack" that was really strained chest muscles from throwing small logs. Two years ago my current physician didn’t like a whooshing; last year he said I had the “heart of an athlete”; this year he prescribed the echocardiogram and stress test.

My non-running legs got tired before my heart rate got to a level the technicians wanted; additionally, they had me on the stress test longer than most people my age.

I think this was the last time I will walk from downtown to the clinic and up the 68 steps to the doctor’s office for an annual physical. Next time, I’ll sit and meditate 20 minutes before my appointment and do my best to hold my breath completely as he listens.

The original illegal immigrants

There have been many waves of illegal immigrants to this continent, but one of the most notorious arrived

Not speaking the language,
Carrying many contagious diseases,
Having few of the skills needed for the existing society, and
Quickly established a criminal record.

Who were these invaders who would not score many points as proposed in the current immigration bill? Why, the Pilgrims.

They did not speak Algonquian, the language of the Nauset whose land they occupied.
Over half of them had died from various diseases,
They knew very little about farming,
They stole grain stores from the local people, and
Eventually they murdered many of the locals.

I guess I can't complain too much about them; both my wife and son-in-law are descended from them.

We want excellence in education?

Today we had our chimney cleaned by an ex-teacher. After 15 years of teaching English, he became a chimneysweep. He has less hassle, more fun, and more pay as a chimneysweep than he did as a teacher.

This says a lot of how much value we put on education in our country. Not that we should consider chimneysweeps as unskilled or performing an unneeded service, but that without highly-valued teachers, all other work is meaningless towards a better society.

The pH factor

When I heard a couple of guys in the fitness center mention a certain celebrity this morning, my stomach became acidic over such a base discussion. Even people who think she is non-news feel compelled to mention her, for example, Mallard Fillmore or current writer.

There is a certain herd instinct in people, in and out of the media, to make news where there is none or even provide more weight to certain people or ideas and less weight to other people or ideas, regardless of their true importance.

Political campaigns highlight this problem. The media reports on front-runners in polls and voters vote for front-runners. The polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I wrote about this in "Reporting News or Making News", Reader Weekly, Nov. 9, 2006.

An unnecessary health care cost

I recently learned of a ridiculous health care cost driver - unnecessary paperwork!

I've worn contact lenses for over thirty years. I remember that the eye care people always want to be paid for the lenses before handing them to the patient; they never bill for them and insurance never pays for them. Such was the case when I picked up a new pair from an opthalmologist's office in a clinic.

I was therefore surprised when I received a notice from CMS (Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services) that the claim was denied and being sent to my Medigap insurer. I called the clinic billing office saying this claim should never have been sent because I had already paid it. The representative told me that it was being sent so they could have the denial. She didn't really want to hear that they should have already known the cost lenses were not covered.

This kind of legalism is adding costs to three entities: the clinic, Medicare, and my insurance company. Maybe if it only costs five dollars per claim per entitity, that adds fifteen dollars to the cost of the service. How many tens of thousands of these unnecessary transactions occur each week? Pretty soon we're talking real money!

A literalist went broke

A literalist went broke because he bought a new bottle of medicine everyday. He wouldn't use the previous day's medicine because the label said, "Do not use if seal is missing or broken."

Roadkill

How often have you seen a dead animal on the highway and thought how can people be so careless? Or, given the animal's position on the road, somebody must have deliberately hit it.

I've found out at least six times that sometimes these collisions are hard to avoid. In fact, sometime one's attempt at avoidance is counterproductive. I tried avoidance today in a small town at less than 35mph and left behind roadkill.

I have hit at least two birds, two squirrels, and two deer. And of course, thousands of insects.

The birds are the hardest to avoid. They swoop in front of one's car generally making it across or being carried by the airstream over the roof. Once, one bird clipped my car just above the windshield. Another time, a bird slammed into my radiator.

One deer walked across the highway right in front of my truck as if I weren't even there. It was dark and on a curve, and I didn't see her until she was in the opposite lane. One dead deer and $800 damage. Another kept changing its mind and would skid around to the opposite direction. I heard it click along the side of my truck. I could find no deer at the side of the road and could not even detect a scratch on the side of my truck.

Squirrels change direction more times than that deer did. I couldn't figure out how to avoid either of the two squirrels that I knowingly hit. In both cases I saw the squirrel bound across the street, and I slowed down. The squirrel would start back the way it came, change its mind and be between my tires, change its mind twice more, and then slam into or be hit by the passenger-side tires. As I looked behind, there was a gray corpse on the shoulder.

Interrupting the interrupters

Have you ever been telling a story to a group of people and have one or more interrupt you with a question, or worse have someone answer the question with your punch line?

I was in this situation this evening. I just stopped telling my story and didn't continue. Worse, nobody asked me for the rest of the story. Worse, others held forth for minutes on end with their stories.

My high school English teacher defined wit as what someone else had at the party that you have on the way home. How right she was.

After I got up from the table, I thought of the comeback to the interrupting question: am I telling a story or are we having a discussion.

The rights of one over the rights of the many

We are in Missouri which does not have a state-wide smoking ban. We chanced going to an Applebee's across the street from our hotel. We asked for non-smoking, but didn't see an ash tray in the place, not even at the bar.

We discussed this with our server. She said that Applebee's in general has a non-smoking policy but certain franchisees allow it, including her employer. However, she said, Monday smokers will be limited to a certain area.

My wife was enjoying a dessert when she smelled a cigarette. Shortly afterward I smelled it too. I quickly paid our bill, gulped my after-dinner drink, and we left. On our way out, we mentioned it to some staff and they were very sympathetic. They have to live with that day in and day out.

Newspapers going the way of buses?

Once upon a time, the U.S. had excellent streetcar and bus service. In many cities one rarely had to wait more than 10 minutes for a streetcar or bus. And then more people got cars. The car was more convenient and flexible. Fewer people took public transit. As few people took public transit, the service was cut back. As service was cut back, fewer people took public transit. As...

Once upon a time, the U.S. had many excellent regional and local newspapers. And then came television and the internet. The one encapsulated the news into soundbites for the lazy of mind and the other provided a treasure trove for the inquisitive of mind. Either way, fewer people subscribed to newspapers. As fewer people subscribed the newspapers cut back on services. As the newspapers cut back on services, fewer people subscribed. As...

What new Northwest Airlines?

"The New Northwest" is the headline in the business section of the Star Tribune, May 31, 2007. Is a new Northwest Airlines better? I doubt it.

My wife made a reservation for Toronto-Duluth because she would be able to stay on the same plane through Minneapolis-St. Paul. The previous time she made the trip her luggage didn't make the MSP-Duluth leg of the trip and had to be delivered the next day. So, thought she, having the same plane should solve that problem.

When she checked in at Toronto, she was told that she would have to change planes at MSP. This also meant she would have to walk to another concourse when she got there.

When she boarded the plane, the captain announced the plane would be flying through to Duluth. The crew hadn't even been told of the flight change!

When I checked for her arrival time prior to picking her up, the plane had left the gate about 25 minutes late but hadn't taken off. Just before I left the house I left the house 20 minutes later, the web site said the plane took off eight minutes after it left the gate.

When she got to Duluth I met her at baggage claim. We waited and watched for her bag to come down the chute. The baggage handlers stopped the chute and her bag wasn't there.

We are now at one hour after the original arrival time. We went to the checkin counter staffed by one person and waited our turn. The bag would probably arrive on the next flight which should arrive any minute. It was on that flight. We arrived home one hour and ten minutes after we should have.

My wife's advice for all fliers: always take a book.

Why wait for the federal government on health care?

Many people think the only solution to the "health care crisis" is a single-payer, federal system. When we think of a single solution, we often run into political roadblocks put up by others who disagree with that solution, whatever the reason.

One way around is that more and more states are coming up with their own solutions, most of them based on mandated health insurance schemes.

Let's go back to the roots of modern health care. What are the names of many hospitals? Lutheran, Methodist, Brigham and Young, St. Mary's, Our Town Community, and so on. These were local hospitals founded to provide care for people in a region, mostly the poor. The rich had care at home, with doctors sometimes on standby. As our wealth increased, more and more of us were expected to pay a larger share of our health care. By previous standards, almost all of us are wealthy. Do you think everyone had a telephone and a car and ate out at fast food restaurants one hundred years ago?

Medical technology improved dramatically over the decades. Who would have thought to give anybody with heart problems an EKG a hundred years ago? Or open heart surgery, surgery that has saved thousands of lives? Improved technology costs money.

The cost of medical care has spiraled way beyond giving the doctor a chicken for his efforts.

Maybe what we need is more structured tier service. Let's make first-line care more readily available locally. We don't need a facility with MRI and so on to treat broken bones or minor illnesses. And we don't need to rush off to Mayo because we have an easily-treated tumor.

We really need better triage care - those who can do all right with a minimum of care, those who need a high-level care, and those who are beyond care. Our first level of triage is the community clinic or hospital. We can probably make the immediate decisions at far less cost than we could at regional mega-care facilities.

We can provide this first line of medical care with local resources, be it local government, church-based, or foundation-based. These can be put in place in a small fraction of time and cost that all the squabbling over a national health care system has taken.

One model is the Green House Project, a series of senior residences for no more than 10 residents, that was started by Bill Thomas in Tulepo, Mississippi. It is more resident-centered than staff-centered. Dr. Thomas is building Green Houses in every state with the help of the Robert Wood Foundation. See "Rethinking Old Age", Atul Gawande, New York Times, May 24, 2007.

In summary, we need a lot of small, local ideas to solve our "health crisis" rather than some super-duper, bureaucratic, one-size-fits-all solution.

An apology that won't be made

Thomas Friedman wrote an excellent article today, May 2, 2007, in the New York Times about what President Bush should say to the regional conference in Egypt about stabilizing Iraq.

Not only does he suggest that Bush apologize for starting and mismanaging the war, but that Bush should call strongly on the Arab and Muslim nations to stand-up to the nihilist terrorists who bomb civilians indiscriminately. Friedman points out that they are already trying to destabilize Muslim governments with killings.

My thoughts are that the "war on terror" cannot be waged militarily but must be waged with police and propaganda. As long as some people see Al Qaeda and its ilk as glamorous for attacking the U.S., there is no hope of eliminating terrorism. The U.S. and Muslim leaders must more actively portray these nihilists as having no plan but to destroy those who try to build a civil society.

Misdirected energy development

I keep wondering about energy being provided by large companies vs. decentralized energy. I found a couple of interesting statements about this in "A fight over the future of solar", a Perspective article published in CNET News.

Herman Scheer argues that many undeveloped areas of the world will not be able to afford large distribution networks to provide power from centralized power stations. He also mentions how power distribution networks are a terrorist target. I think it was in the 80's some disgruntled people were toppling towers. Distribution networks are also vulnerable to weather and human error.

I think the oil companies and the power companies have to recast themselves more as energy companies, providing not energy but energy solutions. This may be providing self-contained systems for a factory or a residence, especially a rural residence, or providing linked systems for small areas. Whether we bring coal hundreds of miles or string hundreds of miles of power lines, we lose energy doing so.

I would hope that energy companies first look to their own energy needs and how they could become less dependent on other sources.

Mallard Fillmore

I mentioned the "Mallard Fillmore" comic strip in my latest column, "General Ization battles truth" for the Reader Weekly. I posted it today to my website; and when I do so, I add as many links as possible, one of them being to the Mallard Fillmore strip. When I find a URL I often visit the site.

I found out that the creator, Bruce Tinsley, was fired by the paper where he created the strip. The website said it was because he "wouldn't tone down its conservative bias." I agree that it has a conservative bias and is often off the wall. But firing him just plays into the hands of those who say the media is "liberal".

I think a better solution would have been to have a "truth squad" cartoon that debunked some of Tinsley's outrageous statements. For example, when Mallard bashes the post office for damaging packages, the "truth squad" could ask, and maybe answer, how many packages UPS or FedEx damage.

Are "Wars on..." successful?

First there was the "War on Crime" which had mixed results. Many Mafia leaders were caught and prosecuted, but crime is still a problem in many cities.

Then there was the "War on Drugs" which has filled many prisons. But drugs still come into the country and find buyers.

Now we have the "War on Terror". Some think it is succeeding: "We will keep the enemy on the run." (George W. Bush, October 19, 2006) Unfortunately, he thinks the enemy is in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it is global and growing larger. In fact, the war in Iraq probably helped al Quaeda grow. See "Al Qaeda Strikes Back", Bruce Reidel, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.

With the military already stretched thin, Bush is giving hints that he would like to attack Iran. Riedel writes that al Qaeda would like to see Bush attack Iran. Consider that the Iranian weapons found in Iraq may have been smuggled in by al Qaeda with the hope of proking the U.S. to attack Iran.

Would the U.S. leaving Iraq strengthen the terrorists' position or weaken it? If the U.S. leaves, Iran may come in to protect the Shia majority against the Sunni insurgents and the Sunni-based al Qaeda. A good general often lets somebody else do the fighting.

National Defense includes climate and energy

The Eisenhower Administration promoted the Interstate Highway System as necessary for national defense - to be able to move men and material quickly around the country.

Some lone voices are calling for energy and climate to be considered national defense issues. Energy is obvious because petrodollars are funding terrorists and authoritarian governments. It is ironic that the fuel needed to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan is being provided by the people who supply major funding to terrorist organizations.

Climate change as it affects food supplies will cause major instability in many countries, leading to worse governments and more stress among nations. See Terror in the Weather Forecast by Thomas Homer-Dixon, New York Times, April 24, 2007.

Whither Iraq?

In 1808, Napoleon thought he "decided" the campaign in Spain by "dispersing the formal Spanish armies," but "had inadvertently encouraged the local populace to resort to guerrilla warfare". He still didn't solve the problem in 1810-1811 sending 300,000 troops into Spain. Spain's population was over 11 million.

"Mission accomplished" was the banner in 2003, Iraq's army was vanquished. Four years later about 150,000 troops are trying to quell guerrilla warfare in a country of over 27 million.

And George W. Bush isn't as good a commander-in-chief as Napoleon was. Unfortunately, they both share the characteristic of hubris, thinking they knew better than anyone else.

For a hopeful outlook, see "How to Win in Iraq, and How to Lose", by Arthur Herman, Commentary, April 2007, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/cm/main/viewArticle.aip?id=10856&page=all
Will George W. Bush put in the necessary diplomacy to make it work? Or will his strategy be lots of high-tech bang-bang?

Astute analysis or lucky guess?

As the fiasco of the fired District Attorney unfolds and Attorney General Alberto Gonzales comes under increasing criticism from Republican Senators, I wonder if I was making a good prediction in my April Fool's column for the Reader Weekly, "Tomorrow's news you can use today" or just a lucky guess.

I started with the premise that Gonzales would resign rather than face a lot of questioning from the Senate or possible impeachment from the House. From there, the President's house of cards would collapse, leading to a surprise replacement for Bush.

I will say that the fruits of giving more allegiance to party than to the Constitution are starting to ripen.

Flawed science understanding

A letter writer in today's Star Tribune claims that the global warming predictions are based on the same science that can be "incapable of accurately predicting local conditions just hours into the future." The Strib titled his letter "Global warming, Flawed science".

I think his understanding of science is what is flawed. First, what is accuracy in weather forecasting? Does he want the exact temperature to the nearest degree and the exact amount of precipitation to the tenth of an inch? Even if he wants the temperature within five degrees and definite precipitation if predicted, it might not happen. Weather does not behave with such precision; there are just too many unknown quantities. We are dealing with chaos.

Consider dust devils. Walking down the street, one may see a small whirlwind of snow or dust, no more than a foot in diameter and three feet high, that comes and goes in an instant. What happens if the sun shines through a hole in the clouds on a large parking lot? Isn't there going to be a big temperature difference between the parking lot and a park or lake nearby? Weather is filled with these little anomalies that can affect local weather.

However, if one looks at weather prediction as giving the general trend for a given area, then I think most forecasters do a darn good job. Rarely do we have a forecast of a clear, sunny day and get a rainstorm. On the other hand, we may get a forecast of precipitation and get none, the weather having been blown in a different direction by some of the chaos that can't be measured.

In other words, weather forecasters and climatologists can make reasonable predictions about trends, but they cannot give precision for a very specific locale or time. For example, in global warming, Europe may get colder. Why? If melting Greenland glaciers dump enough fresh water into the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream could be disrupted by either the decreased salinity or the cooler water. If the Gulf Stream is disrupted, Europe will get less warm air.

Logging can be dangerous

This past weekend we went to our cabin to gather firewood, mostly for next year. We were considering taking small trees from a path we were widening, but we discovered two recently broken trees close to the cabin.

We first delimbed and cut in fireplace lengths the former top of the larger tree, about nine inches in diameter. After we had moved all that away, I started to cut the trunk at about two chain saw bar lengths from the ground. I cut about half-way through on the west side of the tree, the direction I wanted it to fall. Then I started cutting on the east side of the tree an inch or two above the other cut. The saw jammed!

I pushed the tree to the west and got the saw out, but the tree didn't fall. I cut a bit more and the tree started to fall, but to the south. I was not in the way or had gotten out of the way, and it crashed down.

Omigosh! My wife had been working about 30 feet away to the southwest of the tree. I looked in panic for her and didn't see her. She had gone inside for some reason. Whew!

Moral: always have lots of clear space when cutting down trees and keep others well away.

My accuracy is one reason we're asking a professional logger to fell some trees near things that could be damaged, like our cabin or the solar panel for the sauna.

Why don't I allow comments?

I decided not to allow comments to this blog because they can be too time consuming. If time is a problem, I could ignore them; but that is not in my nature. If someone sends me a meaningful message, then I feel I owe them a response.

As you can see by my frequency of posts here that I was probably right. My email is even worse, I have 27 "unanswered" messages and have been running about that for over a week. Each of these require some action on my part, paying a bill, visiting a web site, or responding to a friend or relative.

I think I understand the complaints of some users of the Genealogy Roundtable on GEnie when I was its sysop in the last century. They just didn't have time to check everyday if someone responded to their query nor did they have an evening to spare to participate in an online discussion. Worse yet, their monthly costs could mount up at $12 or $6 an hour, much of that "wasted" time at 1200 or 2400 bits per second.

Even though my online time is "free", I feel like my users did in the use of my own time. I, like you, am being constantly bombarded to participate in some forum or other. Companies want us to visit their forums to get answers to our problems rather than answer them specifically. Political and advocacy organizations want us to visit their sites and participate in the "discussion". Publicly traded companies want us to get annual reports online rather than as paper copies; how fast can you scan 100 pages online?

All of our creditors want us to pay online rather than by check. Let's see, two minutes to write a check and put it in an envelope, but five minutes to go to the site, log on, read the statement, enter the payment, verify the payment, submit the payment, and log off.

Let me end on a positive note. The Web provides a vast resource of reading material. I could not move from the New York Times to The Atlantic to local papers to newspapers around the world as fast, even if my library stocked all these publications. Second, if I find something I would like to save, I don't have to go to the copier with a stack of dimes for a single article. With a quick cut and paste I can save the file in a folder that fits, not in some physical overcrowder drawer, but in a tiny bit of space under my fingertips.

We've come a long way from the cards in and cards out when I started in computers 48 years ago. And we ain't seen nothing yet!

Parking is too cheap!

Many people think parking is too expensive, especially those who use meters. But if you look at the larger pictures of global warming and national defense it is far too inexpensive.

Shopping centers, even strip malls of four or five stores, offer free parking. These are located all over a city of any size. Free parking is a disincentive to taking a bus. From the perspective of global warming, buses may pollute more than cars, but we need buses for those who can't or shouldn't drive. So, each car adds to the pollution. Also, each car adds to the oil we need to import, and oil wealth is supporting unstable nations and terrorists. What will the cost to our economy be when the next terrorist attack comes?

Even paid parking is too cheap. If I take the bus to a fitness center, it costs me $1.20 round-trip in non-peak hours. I can park on the street for $1.00 for an hour, and I get to come and go on my own schedule. I can park in the ramp for $1.25 for an hour or $1.75 for two hours. If one of my bus trips is in a peak hour, then my fare will be $1.85.

If my wife and I go together, then our combined fare is $2.40 or $3.70. Since we have a car already and it costs only a few pennies in fuel for the two-mile trip, why should we take the bus.

Even downtown parking is too cheap. One lot is $3.75 all day. One person driving alone would pay $2.50 for bus fare, but two would pay $5.00. Wouldn't trudging out to the street or garage in the snow to one's car be easier than trudging to the corner through the snow and worth the extra $1.25 per day?

Even if the weather is nice, one has to plan one's schedule around an every half-hour bus. Forget something as you leave your house and you are late for work.

See also my article "Cost sharing or cost shifting"?

Tectonic shift in politics coming?

Before I started writing blog entries today, I checked my friend Harry Welty's blog, http://www.lincolndemocrat.org

He had an interesting link to Andrew Sullivan's blog entry on "Why we went to war".

I thanked Harry for posting the link and replied:

Thanks for posting the link to “Why We Went to War”. I’ve long suspected that it was more “projection of power” than real defense. However, if it had been executed properly it might have worked. But then ideologues have an unrealistic view of their own capabilities. I think about Carl Becker’s assertion that Lincoln went to war not so much to quell a rebellion or to abolish slavery but to keep the power of the whole United States against depradations on a splintered America by European powers. See, “The United States: An Experiment in Democracy”. Sorry, I don’t have a page number.

I had also emailed him a link to David Brooks' column "No U-Turns", New York Times, March 29, 2007. Brooks said that the political environment is not for the rugged individualism of Goldwater and Reagan. He called it the "Liberty vs. Power paradigm". He wrote that the new paradigm is "security leads to freedom".

I sort of agree that Goldwater and Reagan aren't the future of the GOP but its a mystery to me how the party can recover from Bush,Cheney, Rove, Dobson and company.

I replied:

I think the only hope for politics is some new, grand coalition like I suggested in my April Fool Reader article. It doesn’t have to be Olympia Snowe, but somebody of stature who works on governance rather than power and posturing. Maybe Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas or Arnold Schwarzenegger of California. The latter can’t become President under the current rules, but he could be an enabler.

I did send webforms to Snow, Sebelius, and Schwazenegger with the link to my article and the hope that they would continue their work on the common ground.

Retired? I'm too busy!

A friend is using blog software that has a bug for certain browsers. If he uses block quotes in some conditions, the text is lost against the background. He said that he has too many other things to do detect and fix such errors.

I replied:

I’m kinda with you on not maintaining your blog for all comers. I also find it amazing how we retirees can find so much to occupy our time that we can’t do all we want to do. Shouldn’t we be out fishing, golfing, or skiing, and when we’re not doing that curled up in front of the fireplace with a good book?

What does "Support our troops" really mean?

Garry Trudeau had an interesting take on "Support our troops" in today's "Doonesbury". Two soldiers are discussing whether support means providing them with ammo and armor so they can keep fighting or letting them come home to their families and friends.

Human effect on global warming

Some argue that the human effect on global warming has not been proven because some scientists don't think so and that even the scientific community does not give 100% certainty to this assertion.

Consider that Lord Kelvin, a prolific contributor thermodynamics, refused to believe that the Earth could be older than his calculations. These were based on the mass of the Earth and the heat loss into space. Even when radioactivity was shown to be a source of heat, and even when he agreed that radioactivity did produce heat, Lord Kelvin stood by his calculations. See Bill Bryson, "A Short History of Nearly Everything". Just because an eminent scientist like Lord Kelvin said the Earth was only 24 million years old didn't make other calculations uncertain or even false.

Some scientists claim that there have always been cycles of warming and cooling and that the Earth is just in another warming time. However, they and their supporters are ignoring the rate of change, which is unprecedented going back over 500 milliion years. Furthermore, the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere had never exceeded 30 parts per million by volume in a thousand years. It has increased by that rate in the last seventeen years. See "Deep ice tells long climate story", a report by BBC News.

I've posted my latest Reader Weekly article to my website; see Tomorrow’s news you can use today, an April Fool issue look at what could happen in the White House, Congress, and the world in the next two years.

Libraries in schools, frill or necessity

As I rode up the chair lift with an 8-year-old ski student, I asked her what books she's been reading. She said Judy B Jones. I asked her what the books were about. "She does things." "Does she solve problems or get in trouble?" "Gets in trouble." "Does she figure out how to fix things up?" "Generally."

I asked her if she gets Judy B Jones books at the public library or the school library. "School library". "Which do you prefer, the library or the classroom?" "The library." "Why?" "There are so many books."

There is a whole kid world out there that many adults are unaware of. First, I never heard of Judy B Jones until I talked to this girl about her interests. Second, my own expectation of what names sound like led me to assume the wrong name. The heroine of the books is Junie B Jones!

I found this out by a search of the web. Check http://www.randomhouse.com/kids/junieb/books/books.html
For another series that is exciting kids, see Captain Underpants.

Maybe we have schools organized all wrong. Instead of classrooms where children sit in rows or circles, maybe we should have libraries, labs, workshops, and other activity centers. They would be staffed with teachers who would make suggestions and answer questions. On certain days children would move from one activity center to another. On other days they would choose which they wanted to use and when.

Yes, there should be benchmark tests, but they should be written or oral presentations or they should be demonstrations of skills. The demonstrations could be musical or theatrical performances, an art work, or construction of an object.

In other words, schools should be places where kids imaginations and creativity are allowed to soar. Tests should be something that take advantage of kids' desire to show off.

There is no standardized kid; why should they take standardized tests?

Has George Bush made you safer?

We were considering a trip to visit friends and relatives in Cleveland, southeast Pennsylvania, the Washington DC area, and Arkansas, with stops at a few other places of interest in the South.

After reading Frank Rich's column on the Al Qaeda threat of a nuclear attack (New York Times, February 25, 2007), we have reconsidered our decision. We don't want to be anywhere near New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta, or New Orleans, all potential targets because commerce, government, or shipping.

We, as a nation, have gotten ourselves into this mess because we elect politicians more on personality than substance, because we fall into the trap of wanting to be "strong on defense", and because we totally ignore diplomacy. How could diplomacy stop Al Qaeda? It won't directly, but it sure would garner us more allies and their resources to find and capture criminals like Al Qaeda.

Bush completely blew the struggle against the likes of Al Qaeda with his misdirected war in Iraq which increased the size of "The Enemy" without a commensurate increase in the size of "Our Allies".

Is there anything in Bush's malfeasance that is a high crime or misdemeanor that would be grounds for impeachment? We can't replace him with Cheney either. That leaves Nancy Pelosi, but I don't have any confidence in politicians who practice partisan politics rather than governance and statecraft.

Governors shouldn't be teachers

Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota wants to give an extra two percent of support to "performing" schools. It's a good thing he's not a teacher. Teachers generally give more help to those who aren't performing well. Can you imagine the ruckus if a teacher gave more time to those students who perform well and less to those who don't?

Granted, it is difficult to give help to a disruptive student in a classroom. Special resources are needed to help these students, not less.

As a ski instructor, I have to stop to help those who fell and I have to wait for those who are slower. Should I leave those who fell or can't keep up behind? Should I spend my time giving more challenges to those who ski well? This is effectively what the reward/punishment system of "No Child Left Behind" does.

See my Reader Weekly article, "No Skier Left Behind".

Don't do as I do; do as I say

President Bush is upset that Iran is supposedly supplying arms to some factions in Iraq. Supposedly these arms are being used against U.S. troops. He seems to forget that the U.S. supplied Stinger shoulder-fired missiles to Al-Qaeda and other groups fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The Stingers were used to shoot down Soviet helicopters.

Two thoughts on cell phone usage while driving

Some people think that laws restricting cell phone use are an invasion of privacy. Crashing into someone else's car is an invasion of privacy.

An article in today's Star Tribune had a story told by a woman who had her pickup truck crashed into, sending her spare tire flying across the highway. The other driver got out of her vehicle still talking on her cell phone to her father who was telling her to be careful because the roads were slippery.

Several months ago, I watched a driver talking on his cell phone and tailgating a box truck at one car length as the truck ran a red light. The talker wouldn't have had a chance if the truck driver had chosen to stop. At a minimum, the truck driver would have had to file a report with his employer if the talker had crashed into the truck.

On the other hand, many commercial vehicles have two-way radios, either CBs or private networks. Talking to other drivers or the dispatcher can be very distracting. When I was driving buses, the dispatcher always seemed to call to confirm a charter just as I was ready to turn a corner. Curbing two-way radio use will be very difficult.

"American cheese" a metaphor for American taste

Is "American cheese" a metaphor for American taste?

According to Wikipedia, "American cheese" is a type of processed cheese made from leftover cheeses, emulsifiers, food coloring, and extra salt. Other than the extra salt, it is usually bland. About the only thing it is really good for is melting uniformly on top of a hamburger.

Even the once-juicy hamburger has become bland and salty. The bland, dryness of so many hamburgers is the result of factory-like food preparation which has led to high bacteria counts. High bacteria counts have led to food-induced illnesses. Food-induced illnesses have led to litigation or legislation. Bye-bye, tasty food.

American salads also tend to be made with iceberg lettuce, a tasteless, low-nutrition green whose only redeeming qualities are crunchiness and juiciness. Add to the salad a hard, flavorless, factory tomato. At least few restaurants call blue cheese dressing Roquefort anymore.

But things are looking up. The many ethnic restaurants are providing more variety than the chain hamburger eatery and the once-ubiquitous steak house - four kinds of oversize steaks and maybe fish, deep-fried, of course. Now if more restaurants would provide less than mammoth portions.

Thoughts on a fireplace

A watched fire never roils.

All men are created equal?

I wondered why flags around town have been at half-staff for so long. I thought that they would be at full-staff about a week or so after ex-President Gerald Ford's funeral.

Checking a couple of web sites, including Wikipedia, I found that by federal law U.S. flags are to be flown at half-staff "[for] thirty days after the death of a current or former President." The length is less and less for other federal officials down to "[on] the day of death and the following day for a Member of Congress".

Why not fly the flag at half-staff on the day of a funeral for the death in the line of duty of any military personnel, law enforcement officer, or firefighter?

Watch your language!

Recently I have seen two signs that a word prankster like me loves to give a different meaning than the posters of the signs intend.

CLEAN SHOES BEYOND THIS POINT

is by the coatrack in the men's locker room of a fitness center. Does it mean that one should clean one's shoes beyond the coatrack area? One of the housekeeping staff said it was job security for him as he swept grit up from around the lockers.

EMPLOYEES ONLY DO NOT ENTER

Does it mean that employees are the only ones who should not enter?

An analogy to evolution

Today was one of those days where walking out the door seemed to be a big chore.

Even though I was going to use my truck instead of my wife's car, I looked for the key to her car. It was not where I usually put it by the back door and it wasn't in my pocket with my truck and house keys. I gathered up my backpack and coffee mug, got the garage door key between my fingers and headed out.

Next bad thing: the key wouldn't go in the lock. It was frozen again from a recent rain. Back to the house to get hot water. Decisions: heat water on the stove in the tea kettle or a bit in a cup in the microwave. I started both and took the cup.

Pour water on door handle and set cup down. Key goes in slot and turns. Hurray! Set keys on hood of truck and put pack behind seat. Check car for my key. No luck. Take cup back to house and turn off stove. Back to truck, pick up keys off hood, open overhead door, back out, and get on my way.

Fret all morning about where key to my wife's car is. Could it be at friends' house where we went to a party yesterday afternoon? My wife got to the car first when we left, started it, and then sat on passenger side. Could I have dropped the key in the friends' drive?

We next went to a drugstore to buy a few items. Could I have set the key down on the counter? I've done that many times. My wife stayed in the car and listened to the radio. Did I drop my keys when I automatically reached for them before getting in the car with her keys already in the ignition?

After I came back from this morning's trip, I spent many odd minutes looking in various pockets and under things in the bedroom. The key could have fallen out of my pocket when I took my pants off last night or this morning as I put them on. No luck.

Mid-afternoon I decided to start a fire. After I had it going, I went out to get another load of wood. But as I did so, I carefully looked along the sidewalk to the garage. When we came home yesterday, my wife was first to the back door but hadn't got her keys out. I had reached in my pocket to get mine. Could I have dropped the key to her car when I did so? What do you know, there it was two-thirds the way to the garage, about two inches from the sidewalk and in the grass.

Think of all the things that could have gone "better" or "worse", relative to the loss of the key. If we had gone earlier to the party or not at all, other events might not have happened. Same for going to the drugstore. If my wife hadn't started the car or had come into the drugstore. If we had had more snow and the key was covered. If I had drunk or eaten more or less at the party.

Now think of the poor DNA replicating itself. All those molecules strung in that double helix. What if some necessary chemical is not present? What if some contaminant is present? What if the radiation level or temperature is higher or lower? DNA is replicated not in a "clean lab" but in an uncontrolled environment, an environment that varies widely as the carrier of the DNA goes about its business. Just think of the varying stress levels of my morning, stress causing the chemical composition of my body to change to compensate for my stress.

As these various "random" events could have a larger impact on my life, like just writing about it, so could "random" events change how DNA was replicated. Some of the changes could lead to failure of the organism, others could lead to a even better fit into the general environment of the organism.