Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The military needs to be green, too

Many have mentioned that a sound energy policy is also a national defense issue. Thomas Friedman, "Who Will Succeed Al Gore?", New York Times, Oct. 14, 2007, gives an interesting twist on this. He wrote that U.S. Army officers are desperate for distributed solar power so they don't have to depend on diesel generators. The diesel fuel has to be trucked in, and the trucks are regular targets for insurgents. Isn't one of the jobs of the Commander-in-Chief keeping the supply lines open to the military?

One of the strategic moves of the Allies in World War II was to bomb the oil fields in Ploesti, Romania, thus depriving the German Army of much needed fuel. Not using solar power in a sunny land like Iraq seems to be another case of not learning from history.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Giant steps, not baby steps

I've often wondered how much using paper bags instead of plastic bags, increasing gas mileage by x percent, and many other individual initiatives would improve the environment. I will take these baby steps myself in many cases, but we also need a new "defense" initiative to reduce the old style energy generation and create new means of generating energy. To do so would take a massive government effort that too few politicians are considering.

The October "Wired" has an article about two environmentalists who have proposed such a project. Two Environmentalists Anger Their Brethren by Mark Horowitz. They contend that the current environmentalism is not going to produce the needed results. Micheal Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus propose a New Apollo Project.

Blogging for the environment

Earlier in the day Tuesday last week, before I read about the Blog Action Day for the Environment, I posted Amazing energy savings to be made across the country. It was on the tremendous waste of energy by overly air-conditioned rooms in hotel.

If you regard this as a serious environmental problem, an economic efficiency, or just plain uncomfortable to you, on your next visit to a hotel, say something to management. Better yet, contact the chain.

You can also look at your own energy usage.

Do you heat above 68 degrees F. (20 C) or cool below 77 (25)?

Do you leave lights on all over your house even if you won't be back to a room for awhile? Why not leave on just enough light to find the light switch in the room next to the one you are in?

Do you drive when you could take the bus, bicycle or walk? Does your city discourage alternative transportation? Write your council members or mayor about your "favorite" disincentive to save energy.

See also

A Clean, Quiet Revolution

Ethanol vs. Gasoline, A Changing Marketplace

What Bush should have said about oil

Coal or solar?

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Little decisions can lead to big changes

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
- Robert Frost, "The Road Not Taken"

There are several science fiction stories about space navigators who can see all the possibilities of a ship's travel and can choose the fastest and safest one. One mistake can lead to disaster.

We lesser mortals can't even predict what effect our choice of lunch may have on our future.

I or my wife had made many little decisions that have had a profound effect on our life, an effect that we could not conceive of at the time.

When I was already in college, I made a decision overnight to run for the presidency of a subdistrict of the Methodist Youth Fellowship. I had once declined to do so, but something led me to change my mind. I had a friend nominate me at the meeting the next day, and I won against the listed candidate. Probably because I was male. This was the late 50s.

Once in office, I started dating the elected secretary of the subdistrict. She had voted against me, but after almost 50 years, two children, and three grandchildren, she doesn't regret either decision.

After a couple of years at Univac, I had made an attempt to get a transfer to Norway, but my supervisor didn't follow through on whatever needed to be done. Sometime later, my wife said, "If you still want to go to Europe, don't let us stop you," meaning herself and our kids. So, I made another attempt and we wound up living in Europe for six years.

While we were in Stockholm, my wife struck up a conversation on a subway with another American. We visited each other's houses and were given a standing invitation to visit them in their cabin in Brimson, Minnesota.

When we finally moved back to Minnesota, we spent most of our vacation time in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, but that became less frequent because we never seemed to co-ordinate our vacation time. One year we decided to take up the Brimson invitation over a long weekend. The story is longer yet with other little decisions, but we wound up buying property in Brimson.

Once we had built a cabin on our property, we found that the four-hour drive was becoming tiresome. My wife's employer had an office in Duluth and had been encouraging its employees to work from home whenever possible. So, she asked for a transfer to Duluth.

As usual, there are more little decisions, but one I made was to do more writing. And so here I am, a regular columnist in a local alternative paper and a sometime blogger.

It has happened here!

"Supreme Court Refuses to Hear Torture Appeal", New York Times, Oct. 10, 2007

The case of Khaled el-Masri who claims to have been illegally detained and tortured by the United States government has been dismissed by the Supreme Court. The grounds, it would reveal state secrets. Who decided el-Masri was a terrorist suspect? The Federal government. Who decided state secrets would be revealed? The Federal government.

Whatever happened to checks and balances? This sound eerily like It can't happen here by Sinclair Lewis.

In other words, who decides who a terrorist is? George Bush. Who decides the evidence can't be revealed? George Bush. This is the guy who says he is bring freedom and democracy to the rest of the world.

See also Review of It can't happen here and What do I have to hide? Plenty!

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Where has "tough on ..." gotten us?

I sent this sent this email to my Representative, Jim Oberstar.

Apropos "Democrats seem ready to extend wiretap powers", New York Times, Oct. 9, 2007

I would hope that Democrats after all these years would counterattack the Republicans charges of "soft on..." with "we want to be effective on..."

Such is the case with Bush and Company's eroding of the Constitution with their security paranoia. They may have been "tough on terrorism" but they've been singularly "ineffective on terrorism".

From my latest Reader Weekly article, Putting up with putdowns, Sept. 27, 2007
Miracle! Before I sent this column I found the “lost chord”. It is “soft on…” It is an argument that Democrats have let Republicans get by with for too long. The Republicans discussion stoppers have been “soft on crime”, “soft on Communism”, and “soft on terrorism”. This hard-nosed approach has yet to make any of these disappear. Soviet Communism self-destructed but it lives on in Putin’s petro-authoritarianism. And we still have China and Castro.

Amazing energy savings to be made across the country

Almost anytime I visit a hotel in the the warmer months, I almost get knocked off my feet as I enter the room. It is "freezing". Generally the dial on the air-conditioner is twisted way over to the cold side. At a recent stay the room had a digital setting. It was set at 65° F. (18° C.)!

Many people would not tolerate a temperature that low in the winter. Many energy experts recommend a heating temperature of 68° F (20° C.). On the other hand, they recommend a cooling temperature of 77° F (25° C.). That is the temperature of a nice balmy day in the summer.

I tried looking for something about the actual savings with Google, but most of what I found was either about guests complaining about rooms being too cold or about replacing old equipment with newer, more efficient equipment.

I did see one item about a hotel saving $21,000 per year by improved A/C.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Creative fallacies

I'm reading George Soros' The Age of Fallibility, and I recently read columns by Diane Ravitch on No Child Left Behind (1) and David Brooks on the co-opting of classical conservatism by the Republican Party (2). Or should I say, the co-opting of the Republican Party by people who are certain they hold the truth.

No Child Left Behind and the "war on terrorism" have created more problems than they have solved and diverted resources away from possibly better solutions. We have looked for the quick fixes, the Father knows best solutions, rather than engage in a sober discussion of what the real problems are. We deal with solving problems with the certainty we know the solutions rather than deal with the uncertainty that we won't have a perfect solution.

For example, peace demonstrations are not the answer to extricating our country from the Iraq war. Demonstrations are more mob rule than governance. A better strategy would be to write columns, blogs, letters to the editor, letters to representatives showing the fallacies of the current course. This strategy would have to also suggest ideas to deal with the problems. For example, what do you do for all the Iraqis that have helped the U.S. forces?

The "war on terror" like the "war on drugs" before it is a misleading choice of words. The "war on terror" has reinforced the view that a military solution will adequately deal with criminals who are certain that their view of the world will prevail. We can't bomb Hamburg because terrorists are living and plotting there.

We need to counter terrorism more with ideas than bullets. The U.S. has blown many chances to show that the bin Laden version of Muslim is contrary to many teachings of the Qu'ran. We need to show that an ideology will not bring about a heaven on earth, but that an open society will give us more opportunities to get closer to a just world. We need to counter certainty with possibilities.

(1) "Get Congress Out of the Classroom", Diane Ravitch, New York Times, Oct. 3, 2007

(2) "The Republican Collapse", David Brooks, New York Times, Oct. 5, 2007

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

It's a sad day in the funnies

The comic section of newspapers has come a long way from depicting the foibles of adults, kids, and animals and the feats of heros and super-heros. Nowadays we see more political satire such as "Doonesbury" and "Mallard Fillmore" and more real-life stories such as "For better or for worse" and "Funky Winkerbean". Now we get involved in the trials and tribulations of characters who seem to be part of our daily lives.

People have died before in the funnies, for example, Ellie Patterson's mother died some years ago. But today we get two signals that death has happened. Ellie's father's second wife finds him immobile and Lisa Moore's dream has a masked tuxedoed man coming to escort her elsewhere. It was hard to get up from the breakfast table without a lump in the throat or a tear in the eye.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Chaos, noise, and chance can reward the prepared

One of my coffee companions is always trying to put certain group behaviors into some large philosophical context. Some of us think that people are more independent than stereotypes. That is, our lives are governed as much by chance as by some cultural norms. It is chance that often leads to extraordinary happenings.

Today was another ordinary day that was extraordinary. It was ordinary in that I walked to a coffee shop, went to the library, and got a haircut. Well, not quite, I wouldn't ordinarily do the last two this week.

I went to the library to check for a missing book. I had returned a downtown book to the branch library, but the records showed I didn't return it. I was sure I had and couldn't find it in the house or either of our vehicles. Yesterday I double checked the downtown library. Today I checked the branch library, and, lucky me and lucky library, it was shelved in proper Dewey order in the wrong library. This is part of the chaos, a librarian was probably rushed and shelved the downtown book locally.

While looking for the missing book, I saw "The Language Police" by Diane Ravitch. It's about censorship and bowdlerization in the schools. The jacket says it's "a case of the bland leading the bland." I'll have to get this book when I finish those I am currently reading.

I normally wouldn't be getting a haircut this week and I would normally have gotten it earlier, but the barber isn't at my beck and call. Being later allowed me time to go to the library. Because I went to the barber after leaving the coffee shop and library, I returned home on the other side of the street.

I've been thinking of a photo essay on "The ugly side of Duluth", all the streets and sidewalk needing maintenance or repair, the overgrown trees and shrubs blocking the sidewalk, and so on. As I walked by a small green area of UMD, I noticed two pop cans on an otherwise neatly kept area. It was an interesting juxtaposition with all the mushrooms growing because of the recent rains.

Just as I put my camera back in my case, I heard a car honk. I looked up and saw a car braking for a deer running across the road. It was gone in the brush on the other side of the street before I could get my camera out.

As I continued I saw a deer peeping over a hedge in a yard. I got out my camera and managed one picture before it bounded around the house. Then I saw another deer on the other side of the yard. I kept taking pictures as fast as I could and got one very clear one with the deer trotting towards the back yard. As I was trying for a few more, I noticed that the camera would no longer zoom. I had pushed the off button instead of the shutter. More chaos.

Thatcher's law has been proved again: "The unexpected happens; you had better prepare for it."

See also my two identically titled articles, One thing leads to another (Aug. 4, 2005) and One thing leads to another (Nov. 10, 2005)

Monday, October 01, 2007

One definition of wit

As I was sorting through the scraps of paper on my desk, I discovered that I left one thought out of Putting up with putdowns. It was related to our seeming ability to rapidly counter or neutralize conversation-stoppint putdowns.

Miss Palmer, my high school English teacher defined wit as that which we have on the way home that somebody else had at the party.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

MyNation wins Tiddly-Winks championship

When I saw the New York Times headline, "Germany Wins Women's World Cup Again", I thought all Germans won the World Cup? No, some German's won the Women's Soccer World Cup. Undoubtedly many supported this team, if not in money or attendance, at least in spirit. That can give a team drive, but how much real contribution did all Germans make to the team's success.

Somehow, it seems ludicrous to me that one should automatically have great loyalty to a sports team because they "represent" a geographical area, be it one high school of many in a town or be it one team selected from many from a country. When I watch a sports events, which is generally because my host has not given me much choice, I cheer for all contenders. I feel great when someone makes a great play and I feel down when someone makes a mistake, whatever side they are on.

It may be a good substitute for war or other strife, like the Iraqi team winning the Asia cup. Unfortunately, few of the Iraqi team actually lived in Iraq; it's too dangerous for men in shorts. But it did momentarily give many Iraqis a feeling of unity beyond the daily violence.

Ideally, we would work more on co-operative efforts rather than competitive efforts. We do see that in business where companies form alliances across borders to produce a product or service. Too bad these don't generate the excitement and attention that "high-level" sports events do.

Iraq war and riding in a car

The post Iraq war? on Minnesota's in the middle had a comment about not knowing why we are in Iraq and implied the President knows more than we do.

Yeah, we ask someone to drive us somewhere and that person takes a "shortcut". The car gets stuck in the mud and we all have to get out and push, except the driver. The driver keeps encouraging us saying, "I can see solid ground ahead."

Will we ever have representative government?

I was updating my The Moderate Manifesto I checked the links. When I looked at Unity08 I read a few of its pages.

In short, Unity08 thinks that the nominating process is not serving the country. As another choice "we will prepare to hold, in June 2008, the first-ever online convention where millions of Americans will nominate a Unity ticket for President and Vice President of the United States. We will work to achieve ballot access for that ticket in all 50 states. We will elect them to the White House in November 2008." - About Unity08

This sounds great, but I don't think those participating will be representative of the electorate.
According to the survey Unity08 took of its membership, it is 90% with some college or more, 50% over 50, 73% male, 53% business or professional class (slide 26), 90% have high-speed internet access (slide 27), and generally half don't watch politic pundits on TV (slide 28).

Well, I guess that's not so bad. Except for the TV viewing, it looks much like the demographics of the current major parties.

The upside is that people will be participating in the selection in a small time frame, and that the selection of candidates will be as large as the participants wish. The winnowing will not be determined by a small number of people in a few parts of the country.

It will be interesting to see how big a role money will play in this campaign. It might be more a matter of time to post sufficient comments. And there may be ways to game the system, like recruit people by whatever means to vote for a given candidate.

Do decide for yourself if this is a reasonable alternative to the system few really like.

Monday, September 17, 2007

Constitution Day

Did you know today is Constitution Day? I didn't and from what I gather most people don't either. Supposedly this situation will change because federal law now requires schools to provide educational programming on the history of the Constitution on the school day closest to September 17.

I think it's a pity that we don't elevate the honoring of the Constitution to the level of many of the other holidays that venerate "patriotism". The Constitution is more important to our freedom than any war or the flag. It gives the legal underpinning for our government and our rights. Time and time again, the greatest threats to these have been apathy, mob rule, and our own government.

Are demonstrations effective?

The beauty of demonstrating is that you do not have to compromise.

You gather the like-minded, stand around or march with signs, and some people agree with you, most ignore you, and a few attack you, verbally or physically. You feel good about making a statement and go home. But have you really changed anything?

The real way to get change is to get involved politically. To be effective politically you have to appeal to a wide range of people and interests. To appeal to a wide range of people, you have to compromise.

You can get political change by running for office, by supporting those who share many of your views, or by writing reasoned letters to the editor or to office-holders. Or you could start a new political party that addresses issues you think are not being addressed. But to be successful in getting your party's candidates elected, it has to appeal to a wide range of people and interests. See above about compromise.

So it is much easier to demonstrate and feel good.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

War in Iraq may lead to relative U.S. decline

I just read Thomas Friedman's "Iraq Through China's Lens" in today's New York Times. He points out that in a major speech Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, talked about economic progress made and economic, political, and environment challenges to be faced. On the other hand, Friedman wrote, the U.S. is focused on the war in Iraq.

It's time for many to reread Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000.

Kennedy's thesis is that the great powers rise and fall relative to each other, even if a power's economy and military is growing, others may be growing faster. Considering how fast China and India are growing relative to the U.S., the U.S. is squandering much of its resources in Iraq and will "fall" further behind China and India.

See also my articles Is the Asian Century coming? and More on a Possible Asian Century.

Friday, September 07, 2007

Why I avoid message boards

I had difficulty getting a new picture into one of my standard picture of the day pages. No matter how carefully I copied the HTML code from flickr, I got the alternate message indicating the picture couldn't be found.

I plugged in the HTML for an old picture, and the page worked fine. I plugged in the HTML for the new picture, and the picture couldn't be found. I used the URLs to look at the pictures in another browser; they were displayed fine.

I went to flickr's message board and picked a couple of topics that seemed relevant. I waded through message after message reporting having difficulties with flickr. And message after message complaining about others' posts. And message after message complaining about complaining about others.

Finally, on a second topic I found a message from flickr staff that my browser's cache may have lost the picture but didn't know it. I diddled around with the browser a bit, including closing it at least once. I was very frustrated and so I just floundered around without noting what I did. However, the important point is that the picture now appears in my web page (http://www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/picture_of_the_day.html today and tomorrow or soon http://www.cpinternet.com/~mdmagree/picture_2007-09-07.html).

Most of the time I'm not so lucky to find a relevant answer.

Monday, September 03, 2007

An education "then" never was

I'm reading John Allen Paulos' Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences. In Chapter 4, "Whence Innumeracy", he gives an anecdote about his own public school mathematical education.

When he was 10, he calculated a pitcher's ERA as 135. He told his teacher about it, was asked to explain it to the class, did so shyly with quavering voice, and was told by the teacher he was wrong and should sit down. The teacher said an ERA could never be greater than 27.

At the end of the season, the local newspaper published all the major league ERAs. Since this particular pitcher never played again, his ERA was 135. Paulos showed the article to the teacher who gave him a dirty look and told him to sit down.

"His idea of good education apparently was to make sure everyone remained seated."

Paulos received his B.S. in Mathematics in 1967, and so this incident occurred about 1955. I wonder if 1955 is in Mallard Fillmore's "now" for "bad education".

Just as bad as Paulos' incident, when I was in fourth grade and nine (1947), a substitute teacher took a vote on the distance to the Moon. I wonder how long ago Mallard Fillmore's "then" was. I don't think Bruce Tinsley even knows when "then" was; he was born in 1958.

See more in Chapter 4 of Innumeracy about shortcomings of math education. The book was published in 1988 when Tinsley was 30.

See also my recent article "If numbers make you number, you'll lose dollars before you holler".

Sunday, September 02, 2007

Why don't men sing?

A couple of years ago I wrote a column "Why Don't Men Sing" for the Reader Weekly. I gave various cultural reasons for men's lack of interest in singing. One I mentioned was our becoming more passive with respect to entertainment because of radio and TV. John Allen Paulos gave a broader look at this problem in Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences.

He wrote that the averages in a small collection and a large collection are about the same but that the extremes will be wider in larger collections. For example, in a small town there may be some good singers, but in a large city there may be some even better singers. When the small town singers performed in their home town, people appreciated them. However, as people in the small town heard the better singers available in the big city on radio and TV, they were no longer satisfied with their neighbors' singing. This is even more discouraging to beginning singers because they are judged by a cruelly higher standard.

We can see the reverse in the performances of small children. Some indulgent adults go overboard in praising any effort by small children, even if half of them can't even be heard. That is, the wonder is not how well they sing, but that they sing at all. It's a pity that encouragement of effort won't last for more of their lives.