The latest reported incident in the Gulf of Hormuz has two interpretations. If either scenario is allowed to be played out militarily, it will be a disaster for all concerned, military and civilian, American and Iranian alike.
If the Gulf of Hormuz incident is another Gulf of Tonkin incident, blown out of proportion and used as an excuse for an attack on Iran, Iranian citizens will suffer through no fault of their own.
If the Gulf of Hormuz incident is a direct provocation by certain elements of the Iranian military, it is a serious miscalculation. These provocateurs may think that the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and does not have the resources to attack Iran. It may be true that the Army is stretched thin in these two conflicts, but the U.S. Navy still has a lot of firepower in long-range artillery, cruise missiles, and aircraft, all of which could hit any point in Iran. Does Iran have sufficient defenses against this firepower? I think not other than world opinion. World opinion has not stopped U.S. Presidents and Congress in previous cases.
If either scenario is played out, loss of Iranian life, property, and infra-structure will be mind-boggling, American politics will be even more polarized, the U.S. economy will decline precipitously, and terrorists will be working overtime to strike American interests.
