“Junk science” has been junked

Have you seen the charge that some scientist’s work is “junk science” lately?

It always frosted me when I read an op-ed or letter to the editor that charged that some widely accepted scientific work was “junk science”.  “Junk science” is a contradiction.  If it is “junk” then it is not science.  If it is science, then it is not “junk”.  Science is postulating a hypothesis and then testing it.  If a number of scientists can replicate the tests, then the hypothesis can start to be called a theory.

A good example of a hypothesis that couldn’t be replicated was “cold fusion”.  A single lab coming up with a drug to cure whatever is not really proven until hundreds or even thousands of cases can demonstrate the drug gives the desired results.

I think that those who promoted the idea that the mounting evidence of global warming was “junk science” have finally decided that it was a poor phrase to promote their own interest in a denial of global warming.

I was inspired to write this blog by Dr. Phil Plait’s introduction to “50 popular beliefs that people think are true” by Guy P. Harrison:

“The basic property that makes science science is that it’s self-checking.  You don’t just make an assumption; you test it.  You see if it works the next time you use it. And you don’t assume because it did, it always will.”

And for people who dismiss scientific research with, “It is only a theory”, I hope they don’t walk off any cliffs because gravity is only a theory.

My TicTacToe Hypothesis

I've long wondered about the relation of the size of a TicTacToe grid and the number of squares to the outcome of a game.  For example, a 2x2 grid will always be won by the first player:

The odd numbers are the first player's moves, and the even are the second player's moves.

Part one of my hypothesis is that an n to the nth grid will always be won by the first player.  So far, so good!

If we now try a 3x3 (n+1 to the nth+1) grid, we get the following result:

Many people know that in 3x3 TicTacToe game that either the first player will win or a tie will result, especially if the first player always starts from the center.  In the above example, we have a tie because neither player has any moves that will lead to a win. The red numbers are blocking moves.  The only way player two would lose is by making his or her next move in the lower left corner.


Now let's try a three-dimensional game.  If the grid is 3x3x3, then player one can always win with careful play:

Again the red numbers are blocking moves and the green numbers are the winning moves.  The second player has only two choices for the fourth move (8), as shown or where the first player made the winning move (9).  Neither would have prevented the first player's win.

OK, let's try a 4x4x4 game.  After several tries where the first player won, I found one where the second player won, even though the first player kept trying to take the initiative:

The two red X's are the only choices the first player has, either of which still allows the second player to make the winning move.  Can you find which move by the second player put the first player on the defensive?

And thus goes my hope of a grand theory of TicTacToe crashing to the ground, pulled down by the weight of contrary evidence.  My hypothesis is that I went too long to test my TicTacToe hypothesis and kept getting my hopes higher and higher.

Use and misuse of words: theory and hypothesis

"'I am taking what you have told me, and what is in this book, and what I have seen and heard, and making an imagining from them.'

"'A hypothesis,' I said, 'That is what Windlow called it.  A hypothesis; an imagining which might be true.'" - "The True Game: Wizard's Eleven", Sheri S. Tepper

How often have you heard an idea is "only a theory", for example, evolution?  Often others retort that gravity is only a theory, but don't walk off a cliff.

All of us should learn to use each word in its proper context.  A hypothesis is an idea that has some basis in facts, but not enough facts are known yet.  A theory is an idea that has a preponderance of facts to substantiate it.  The "four corners of the earth" was a hypothesis based on limited geographical knowledge.  A round earth is a theory based on so much evidence that few of us question whether the earth is round or not.

How many of us are going to use "hypothesis" instead of "theory"?  My hypothesis is that few of us, including me, are going to use these words properly.