Valley Forge and Afghanistan

A ragtag army of rebels held itself together over a winter as the enemy wined and dined in a nearby major city.  Guess who won in less than eight years.

The only thing we learn from history is that we don't learn from history.

Comment posted to “On Afghanistan, There’s No Way Out”, Bret Stephen, New York Times, 2017-08-24.

A couple of Middle East surprises

When I wrote "Muslims do speak out" I mentioned some newspapers including The Daily Star of Lebanon.  I scanned the headlines and read a story or two.

One story was that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that Syrian rebels have about 50 Stinger missiles.  Stinger missiles were used quite effectively by Afghani fighters against Soviet helicopters.  I wondered when some would be available to the rebels in Syria against the aerial attacks by the government.  I didn't see any mention of the missiles actually being used.  But Lavrov voiced concerns about the missiles being used against civilian aircraft.  Given the shifting mix of fighters, this should concern all countries.

The other surprise was an ad near the bottom of a page - an ad for Mitt Romney for President sponsored by www.MittRomney.com/Minnesota!  We're being tracked!!

Women's role in Libyan War bigger than you thought

See Libya's "War-Tested Women Hope to Keep New Power", Ann Barnard, New York Times, 2011-09-12.

Military quote of the day

"The British never clearly understood what they were against–a revolutionary struggle involving widespread support in the population.  Hence they continually underestimated the staying power of the rebels and overestimated the strength of the loyalists.  And in the end, independence came to mean more to the Americans than reconquest did to the English."

- The American Revolution, Gordon S. Wood, p. 78.

Why should foreign soldiers be needed against native insurgents?

I've long wondered why the U.S. or any other country needs to send its armed forces to another country to fight home-grown rebels. If the rebels can fight effectively, why can't the local government soldiers fight back effectively?

First, how strongly do the fighters on either side believe in their cause? Too often, the rebels are "true believers" who think their cause will bring about a "better" world, and the government soldiers are reluctant supporters of a weak or corrupt government. The latter may be in the military because it is one of the few jobs available, and even some erratic pay is better than no pay at all.

Second, a weak or corrupt government cannot organize itself to effectively solve any problem. It either spends too much time trying to get people involved co-operatively or spends too much time lining pockets.

A foreign army can't do much about either situation unless it completely takes over the country and rules with an iron fist. Armies from democratic countries find this very unpalatable.

For the most part, foreign armies are just that, foreigners. They don't speak the language and don't understand either the customs or the politics. This was especially true in Iraq, where the foreign army created more enemies than it eradicated.

The situation may be changing in Afghanistan. According to David Brooks, "The Winnable War", New York Times, 2009-03-27, "every Western agency is finally focused on" creating a civil society. We shall see.