Dubai: A listening post for Iran, and other notes

Jason Rezaian wrote "Reporting from Dubai" http://tehranbureau.com/reporting-dubai/ for the Tehran Bureau. He gives an interesting perspective on where it is easiest to find news about Iran. There is regular travel between Iran and Dubai, and Iranians feel more free to speak in Dubai. He does give a sense that discontent runs very deep in Iran.

Rezaian wrote that Lara Setrakian has been using her network of Iranians to "help round out her reports on Iran. Unfortunately, I searched ABC and her last report on Iran was from July 9.

For a good feel on why Obama must tread carefully concerning Iran, see "Why Russian & China Love Iran's Hardliners" http://tehranbureau.com/russia-china-irans-violent-crackdown/

For a selection of T-shirt ideas, see "Ahmadinejad is President".

Otherwise, I'm finding regular updates from the streets of Iran hard to come buy. The Lede of the New York Times does not start on its promised schedule and Nico Pitney has not written a blog for the Huffington Post on Iran for almost two weeks.

What's happening on the streets in Tehran?

From most of the news available, it would seem the people of Iran have been quiet while Ayotollah Khameni presents Ahmadinejad with a decree confirming the latter's election to a second term and while a trial of over 100 accused is proceeding.

All is not quiet. The Lede in the New York Times has many photos and videos showing otherwise. See http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/03/four-years-ago-in-tehran-a-more-united-regime/

Iranians cannot feel like the rest of us

For a very moving essay on what it means to be an Iranian, read
Alien Nation, Kamin Mohammedi, Tehran Bureau, 2009-08-01

It is very hard to see all these pictures from modern Iranian cities and believe that the Iranians live with a medieval government. We may believe that our 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen, but no newspapers were shut down for writing that fraud had taken place and nobody was sent to prison for claiming there was fraud.

Censorship and anti-censorship

There are great leaks in the dam of Iranian censorship.

Where's the wrist with the green band in this picture from Iran's Press TV?

Mohsen Shadi bags Iran 1st world rowing gold

But then the comments include the following:

** beginning of selected comments. Copied 2009-07-29 20:04 CDT

Ghasem
Wed, 29 Jul 2009 07:43:42 GMT
Just I came here to see you cut his hand in picture!

The Yellow Blue
Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:07:23 GMT
Not only wrists, they can even cut heads, tongues, eyes, ears, etc...!

nndreza
Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:17:51 GMT
DO NOT WORRY EVERY BODY!! all comments will be deleted lool

** end of selected comments **

If you would like to see the original picture, go to

Mohsen Shadi Naghadeh Pictures - FIS World Rowing U23 Championships - Day Four - Zimbio

The Iranian people fight on; their leaders can only follow

You can find an interesting update of the opposition to the official election results at
"Iran's Protesters: Phase 2 of Their Feisty Campaign", Robin Wright, Time, 2009-07-27.

People who normally wouldn't demonstrate in the streets are finding some subtle ways to express their dissatisfaction. Both private and government companies are losing money as a result.

More cracks in the Iranian government

Melody Moezzi reports that many Basiji are getting tired of enforcing prohibitions on demonstrations. They moved from being heros when they helped in disasters to being villains for their street actions. People in opposition often ask Basiji to join them, and some do.

See "The Basij Are Cordially Invited to Join the Opposition".

Why so little news about Iran?

The news out of Iran has all but dried up. The last posting in Nico Pitman's blog http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/10/iran-uprising-blogging-fr_n_229344.html was at 10:47 ET on Friday. Granted, Huffington Post was moving or rearranging its offices, but New York Times, Tehran Bureau, and BBC had no or little recent coverage.

The only two items I found were "Iran Prepares Plan for Talks with the West", dated July 11 and "Mehdi Karroubi warns of 'unimaginable consequences'", also dated today. The latter was published in Karroubi's newspaper. All other news about Iran since July 10 concerns events outside Iran.

Is the opposition resting after Thursday's demonstrations? Have security forces locked down Iran, including all means of communication?

The one-fingered victory sign

At 2:45 into this YouTube video is Iran's version of Tiananmen Square. Granted that the young woman is not facing tanks, but her gesture is definitely more defiant. I can't say whether this particular picture is made up or not. Even if it is made up, it expresses somebody's feelings "eloquently".

You might be surprised who wants improved Iranian-American relations

Roger Cohen wrote a very interesting and surprising commentary on who wants to see an improvement in Iranian-American relations. See "Let the Usurpers Writhe", New York Times 2009-07-01. Apparently, those currently in government need an improvement in relations, but they don't want to see the opposition get credit for the improvement.

Cohen would very much like to see an improvement, but he believes that best way to bring down Ahmadinejad is for Obama to keep his distance.

My own view is that those who call for Obama to be more forceful are overly optimistic about U.S. power, military or diplomatic. Somehow they think when the so-called leader of the free world speaks, the whole world will jump. They neglect the long history of the U.S. telling some country to do this or that, and the U.S. gets just the opposite. The rulers, legitimate or otherwise, become more popular by their resistance to U.S. pressure.

Sources for news about Iran

My original source for current news about Iran was "The Lede" of the New York Times. It was a good aggregator of news, pictures, and videos from various sources, but the flow seems to have slowed considerably have things have "quieted down". It sometimes is hard to find the latest page. The link in an article may be to the previous day or there may not even be a lead article on Iran. Also, the Times doesn't have the same reporters aggregating for The Lede everyday.

I have now added The Huffington Post to my list of periodic checks. Nico Pitney's "Iran Uprising Live-Blogging" has had many interesting items, including one of the British hosts of Iran's PressTV quitting. For a few more details see, the 5:16ET item in the 2009-06-30 blog.

Revolution or restoration?

The actions of the Iranian opposition have been called a "Green Revolution", but is it really a revolution? Is it more a call to restore the ideals of the 1979 revolution that have been corrupted by the power grab of certain parts of the Iranian elite?

For one view, see "After the Crackdown: Iran's Opposition Down but Hardly Out", Scott Macleod, Time Magazine, 2009-06-30

Is Iraq interfering in Iran's internal affairs?

Authoritarian regimes tend to blame the problems of their own creation on outsiders meddling in internal affairs. Even would-be authoritarians like Sen. Joe McCarthy see meddlers in every cubicle. So it is no surprise that many in the Iranian government are spending so much energy blaming everybody but themselves for the dissatisfaction in Iran.

What surprised me was that one "outside" "meddler" is either unnoticed or seen as a mediator in the conflict in Iran. Who is this "outside meddler"? The Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani of Najaf, Iraq.

Apparently he has more respect among Shi'a muslims than either Rafsanjani or Khameni. Iranian politicians have gone to Najaf to consult with him. Interestingly, he refused to see Ahmadejani. See "Iran's Rafsanjani and Iraq's Al-Sistani", Patterico's Pontifications, 2009-06-22.

I was led to this site from a transcript of "Fareed Zakaria GPS" program on CNN, 2006-09-28.

He had an interview with Robert Baer, a former CIA agent, who thinks there has been a military coup by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard with the connivance of Ahmadinejad, a former officer of the Guard. However, Zakaria followed the interview with his own musings on the influence of Al-Sistani in Iran.

I then looked up Al-Sistani and found Patterico's Pontifications. He in turn referenced "Regime Change Iran: Movement Seeks to Eliminate 'Supreme Leader' Position", Threats Watch, Steve Schippert, 2009-06-21. Schippert quotes Al-Sistani,

"I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian," and that Islam can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. You will never hear such words slip past the lips of Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei. Ever.

Sorry, the quotes are exact from the site.

I recommend reading the full text to get a better idea of all the complexities of this situation. As Patterico implies, we may be seeing a "slow-motion regime change".

Did the Iranian government win the battle only to lose the war?

We lived in Stockholm, Sweden from 1970 to 1974. In our last year I remember seeing a demonstration of a couple hundred or more Iranians demonstrating against the Shah. The Shah did not abdicate until 1979. Iranians in Iran demonstrated this month in the thousands against the Iranian government. The government turned out in force and stopped the massive demonstrations. Did the government succeed or fail? Indications are that they may have failed; will it be weeks or years before the current government falls?

The streets of Tehran are calm and commutes take 15 minutes where they used to take 45. But business is way down, some shopkeepers report by more than half. People are afraid to go out. But they remember what they saw and will not forget.

“'People are depressed, and they feel they have been lied to, robbed of their right and now are being insulted,' said Nassim, a 56-year-old hairdresser. 'It is not just a lie; it’s a huge one. And it doesn’t end; they keep on insulting people’s intelligence with more lies on TV.'”
- "In Tehran, a Mood of Melancholy Descends", Nazila Fathi, New York Times,

"Instead, hard-liners around President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad opted for schism, a historic error. The Iran of yesterday is gone, the Iran of tomorrow not yet born."
- "Iran's Second Sex", Roger Cohen, New York Times, 2009-06-27.

If you haven't done so already, read Roger Cohen's reports from Tehran for the last several days.

The quiet before the storm?

The mass protests in Iran have petered out in Iran because of overwhelming action by the security forces. Even protests made without crowds seem to have been feeble.

Yesterday was supposed to be a day of releasing green balloons. I wondered where the protesters would get enough balloons to fill the sky. Even if there had been enough green balloons in the stores, wouldn't the authorities rush to buy all the balloons?

Supposedly because protesters ran out of green balloons, they used trash bags instead. I knew they would never have enough helium; who stores a helium tank in their apartment? A quick Google search led me to the clue - hair dryers, and I didn't even have to read any full article.

Maybe the time it would take to fill a trash bag with sufficient hot air explains why the only pictures I saw of green balloons were of single groups of four or five bags tied together. Not a very massive demonstration. I was surprised that a trigger-happy Basij didn't shoot them down.

However, a couple of Iranians have been quoted as there is plenty of heat beneath the ashes. We haven't heard for several days about Rafsanjani's work behind the scenes with the Council of Experts, the group that can hire and fire the Supreme Leader. We have read that the mayor of Tehran thinks that people should be able to protest peacefully. We know that several clerics, including some very senior clerics, have spoken out against the clampdown. We know that many members of Parliament did not attend the congratulatory party for Ahmadinejad. What many of us didn't know is how much the security forces control so many aspects of Iranian society. But even in the security forces, not all agree with the necessity of the crackdown.

If there is indeed heat beneath the ashes, what, if any, fuel will start a new conflagration. The 1979 revolution took a year; the 2009 revolution could also.

An interesting non-violent counter-attack in Iran

If you have seen many of the pictures coming out of Iran, you may have seen a middle-aged man on the back of a motor-bike pulling a gun out of his belt. According to the Christian Science Monitor, he is a provocateur trying to increase the level of violence. See "Who's behind Iran violence? Website posts video in name-and-shame campaign".

An Iranian website has posted a few pictures of these provocateurs and some have been identified. People are surprised to learn that they are their neighbors. Supposedly one of the identified provocateurs has left town.

Many critics complain we have become beholden to our gadgets and our technology. But these gadgets and technologies are really giving power to the people. Power is held by the few when information is held only by the few.

Al-Jazeera more liberal than many think

Because Al-Jazeera broadcasts videos and other press releases from the likes of Al Qaeda, many Americans think of Al-Jazeera as nothing more than a mouthpiece for terrorists.

However, if you actually visit Al-Jazeera's web site you will find a much broader reportage. For example, see "Iranian writer on poll result", an interview with Azar Nafisi, author of "Reading Lolita in Tehran". Afisi doesn't pull any punches on what she thinks of the regime in Iran and of reactions to it. For example, "The US government is sometimes silly in its response to Iran."

Because I don't know Arabic, I can't say if this interview was also posted in Arabic. I can say if you click "Arabic" in the sidebar on the left, you will find many of the popular photos from Iran, including a demonstrator holding up a sign, "Where is my vote?"

I probably will not live to see it, but the 22nd century may see no dictatorships. Optimistic? Consider that in the 1950's Western Europe had Franco in power in Spain and Salazar in Portugal.

Many views on how to support the Iranian people

The comments on the Lede of the New York Times are all over the map: unquestioning support of the Iranian demonstrators, unquestioning support of the Iranian government, ignore the Iranians, stop the Iranian government, and more.

Those calling for no support believe that the Iranians are the enemy, government and people alike. This is the terrorist mindset: all of the X are the enemy, and so they all deserve to die.

The hard-nose cold warriors: they don't understand how foreign interference rallies people to support their government and backfires. Sen. John McCain faults President Obama for not doing enough. See "President Obama Reiterates Concerns about Iranian Election", New York Times, 2009-06-16. “He should speak out that this is a corrupt, flawed sham of an election,” Mr. McCain said in an interview on NBC’s “Today.” “The Iranian people have been deprived of their rights. We support them in their struggle against a repressive, oppressive regime.”

Boy, am I glad I voted for Obama! This is not the kind of talk we need coming from a President.

“We make sure that the world knows that America leads,” Mr. McCain said.

Wait a minute! If the Iranian election was corrupt and flawed, in what election was American chosen as a leader of the world?

There are the overly sympathetic meddlers: they call upon people to join a denial of service campaign against Iranian government sites. But denial of service on a few sites also reduces the available bandwidth in the local network and hinders outgoing messages. It is also stooping to the level of your opponent. In fact, one should avoid any Iranian site; the foreign traffic decreases the available bandwidth. Internet access in Iran has become very slow. Depend on non-Iranian sites to aggregate.

There is the reasoned approach: President Obama gave restrained support for people without undue criticism of the government. See the above article quoting John McCain. Also, note that Richard Lugar, Ind.-R, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, agrees with Obama. “For the moment, our position is to allow the Iranians to work out their situation,” Mr. Lugar said in an interview Tuesday morning on CBS’ “Early Show.” “For us to become heavily involved in the election at this point is to give the clergy an opportunity to have an enemy and to use us, really, to retain their power.”

Whither Iran?

"Yet [Ayatollah Khameni] must have been troubled by a sense of déjà vu having lived to hear the calls of “God is Great” from Tehran rooftops denouncing his handpicked president. The same calls 30 years ago brought the shah’s regime to its knees."

- "A Middle Class Uprising", Abbas Amanat, New York Times, 2009-06-16, appended to an editorial "Where Will the Power Lie in Iran?"

Amanat also points out that 80% of Iran's population is urban or semi-urban. So much for the rural people were dominant in the election.

The size of the crowds in Tehran is unbelievable

See http://www.flickr.com/photos/mousavi1388/sets/72157619701000269/ for photos posted by Moussavi1388. 1388 is the current year in the Iranian calendar.

Also a counterattack on Iranian government websites is underway. Two can play the game of web-blocking. Simply by requesting a web site, thousands of people can block that web site. Try Ahmadinejad's web site. Since there are more Iranian citizens upset with the election results than there are government employees who can block opposition web sites, the only government defense is to shut the web entirely. And that would upset lots of business people who have not been demonstrating. I think the strong-armers in the Iranian government have put themselves in a no-win situation.

I think we're going to see the Web as the biggest promoter of democracy that we've ever seen.

Will Iranians bring democracy to the Middle East?

Many Americans think of Al-Jazeera as an anti-American, anti-Israeli broadcaster. However, you might want to take a look at one Al-Jazeera story on the crisis in Iran, "Iran protesters defy rally ban", Aljazeera.net, 2009-06-15. It is a rather even-handed reporting of the events and the conflicts in Iran.

When people in the other countries see footage and stories like this, will they starting asking why they shouldn't be doing likewise?

And it could spread out even wider. China Daily reportage seems on the surface to be pro-government, but those who read between the lines might see more. See "Iran's supreme leader warns against provocative behavior", China Daily, 2006-09-15