Showing posts with label turnout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label turnout. Show all posts

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Vote! If you don't vote will you get even worse candidates?

 I'm still here.  But I don't get to see much about the traffic here.  I just haven't figured out just what I have to reset.

 We have settled into senior housing after selling our house.  We are in a location where we can walk to almost all the places that we need to go. 

We have cast our 2020 ballots at city hall.  We were surprised that we had to wait, not long, but it sure beats standing in line on November 3.

We are also happy that we live in a state that honors vote integrity.  We can see this by the way parties keep switching around.  I would like to vote Republican, but I haven't seen any real Republicans since Arne Carlson replaced a child molester on the ballot for Governor.

See also Dave Durenburger's book When Republicans Were Progressive.

As for the title of this article: Hilary Clinton may have won the popular vote, but would she gotten the Electoral College vote if 90% or more had shone up?  The less than 70% vote was not worthy of a democracy.

If you are an American be sure to vote.  Sorry, you don't get to vote twice this year for not voting in 2016.

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Shame on Wisconsin stay-aways

In the election for a Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge, Rebecca Dallet, a Democrat, beat Michael Screnock, a Republican, 56 to 44 percent.

No matter what your party affiliation is, this is very  bad news.  The turnout was 22 percent!!  This means that just over 12 percent of the voters supported Dallet with their time.

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Russian collusion and Donald Trump

If you have a few hours free, read the Washington Post’s long article on Donald Trump and the Russians.

If you still have time read all the comments.  This is a bit more time consuming because the Washington Post allows instant commenting.  It’s great to have instant posting rather than waiting hours for arbiters to approve comments, but some people criticize others over and over again, often with insult rather than insight.

Tuesday, December 05, 2017

Third Party candidates, another false equivalency

A Los Angeles Times article on the death of John Anderson blames his candidacy for Jimmy Carter’s loss in the 1980 Presidential Election.

These articles rarely, if ever, blame the losing major party candidates for the loss.  A more thorough analysis would include the turnout.  How many Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, and Hilary Clinton lukewarm supporters stayed away?  I think poor turnout has far more to do with a major party candidate’s loss than anything else.

Monday, November 06, 2017

Don’t throw your vote away. Vote on 11/6

Odd year elections are decided by turnout more than the even year elections.  If you stay away, you are even more likely to get your least liked candidate.

If you live in Virginia, this applies very much to you.  It is a election that will be decided more by who stays away than by who shows up.  If you don’t live in Virginia but have friends or relatives in Virginia, please remind them to vote.

My wife, an election judge, thinks I am too negative with this sentiment.  But if I don’t shout it from the rooftops…

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Staying home changes nothing, you must vote for change

“The real change will come when those who felt compelled to stand on principle and not participate in an election in which they felt they were being forced to choose between “the lesser of two evils” realize the staggering magnitude of the gap between those ‘two evils.’”
Soul Survival in Trump’s Hell”, Charles Blow, New York Times, 2017-09-11.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Democracy: quote of the day

"Democracy is about majority rule, not majoritarian tyranny."

"Gandhi won't leave India", Gopalkrishna Gandhi, New York Times, 2017-08-14

We do have to be careful even about the phrase “majority rule”.  Does the majority rule about climate change?  If the majority is purple people do they get to rule that all orange people should leave the country?

“Majority rules” should be limited to the majority elects those who govern, not to each and every rule that a government makes.  And in our last election, a minority of those who voted determine who would become president.

Consider also that many corporations want to eliminate many rules that “the majority” made: rules about safety, rules about pollution, rules about…

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Does the Senate really believe Washington's Farewell Address?

I posted the following to “Will the Presidency Survive This President”, Eric Posner and Emily Bazelon, New York Times, 2017-05-20

Dear Reader,

Every year on Washington's Birthday, the Senate has one of its members read George Washington's "Farewell Address".  You can find a copy at https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/WashFarewell.pdf.

Your homework assignment is to read George Washington's "Farewell Address" and send both your Senators a quote that you feel is appropriate to current events.

You probably can find many quotes that support what the Senate is doing and that chastise them for not following the advice Washington gave.

Two that stand out for me are his warning about factions and the danger of foreign entanglements, both with friend and foe.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Thousands of phone calls are better than thousands of protestors

I posted the following to the comments section of “The Alt-Majority: How Social Networks Empowered Mass Protests Against Trump”, Farhad Manjoo, New York Times, 2017-01-30

Anti-Trump demonstrations are shedding harsh light on much of Trump’s arrogance, but my big question is what percentage of the protestors voted.

As stated in the article, the protests are getting attention and making Trump nervous.  But are the protests going to change the minds of those in Congress who enable Trump?

A better way to make a protest is to call your U.S. Senators and U.S. Representatives, even if they are Democrats.  Calling Democrats will help give them more backbone.

The best way is to call, not send email or a letter.  You can find your Senators phone numbers at https://www.senate.gov/ and your Representative’s number at  http://www.house.gov/.

Keep your message brief: 200 words or less.  Be polite.  If you have a another message, don’t hesitate to call at another time.

Also call your state senators and representatives, especially if you live in a gerry-mandered state.

If you voted in the last election, the American people thank you.  If you did not make sure to vote in each and every election from now on.  And in your phone call, remind the office holder that you intend to vote.

The Trump White House doesn’t list a phone number, but it does have an email form at https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact.  Gosh, what would happen if every protester filled out this form.  Would it bring down one of the White House servers?

Friday, December 30, 2016

Donald Trump came in third, not second

Forrest Johnson’s latest column in the Reader Weekly stated that Donald Trump came in second ("Dear President-Elect Donald the Clown").  The reality is that Trump came in third; the real winner was a de facto “None of the above”.

Wikipedia gives the following figures:

Turnout - 55.3%
Trump -  62,979,879 45.95%
Clinton - 65,844,954 48.04%

Neither received a majority of the votes, but Trump is acting like he has a mandate.  In almost every election (too many) where a candidate doesn’t get a clear majority, the winner acts like he did.  If we didn’t have the Electoral College mucking things up, Clinton probably would act like she had a mandate.

In this year’s election, Trump received the votes of 25.4% of the electorate.  Clinton did only slightly better with the votes of 26.6% of the electorate.  This is not the way to run a “democracy”.

Few candidates have the humility to admit that more people didn’t show up than voted for him or her.  This holds for local elections as well as national elections.

It is far better to show up and leave a slot blank than to not show up at all.  In the first case your vote “counts” because you are part of the electorate.  In the second case your “vote” will never be counted.

The Election Project has slightly different figures, but the result is just as bad for democracy.

Turnout - 60%
Voting Eligible Population - 231,556,622
Ballots - 138,884,632

We will only have a democracy is when all eligible voters truly believe the following:

The only way
You throw your vote away
Is to stay away!

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

2016 turnout seems to be super…

… now if we can only continue that each and every election day.

My wife is a precinct judge, and based on her text reports on turnout, that precinct may have over 90% turnout.  I think her figures are for those who voted today.  Considering the number of early voters in Duluth and elsewhere, many areas of the country may have over 90% turnout.

Now if we could only get all eligible voters to turn out for each and every election, not just presidential elections.

If you are eligible to vote in the U.S. I hope you show up or showed up to vote today.  If you are reading this before the polls close and have not voted, I hope you make a point of voting before they close.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Rain or shine: VOTE! If you don't, you could give the election away!!

Rain or cool weather means lower Democratic turnout.  Does this mean those without cars don’t show if the weather is not good.

"These findings significantly illuminate the theory in regards to voter turnout. In
particular, these results show that the primary exogenous mechanism through which
turnout affects elections is the composition effect. In other words, when turnout is
increased, newly mobilized voters are disproportionately Democratic.  Furthermore, these results illuminate a question that has been claimed to be unanswerable: If one could increase voter turnout, would it help Democrats? We find that the answer to this question is, resoundingly, yes.”

"The Joke Isn’t on the Democrats?  The Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout"
Alexander Kendall, Political Science, Stanford University
http://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci353/2004spring/reading/kendall_final.pdf

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Thought of the day; 2016 election turnout

See”Trump or Cruz?  Why It Doesn’t Matter Anymore for the GOP, Fiscal Times, 2016-04-14,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-cruz-why-doesn-t-174800466.html.
Now the trick is that those who would vote Democratic don’t stay away because they don’t like Sanders or Clinton.  In fact, a huge Democratic turnout and a huge Republican stay-away are needed to give support to Sanders or Clinton.

Remember my mantra: If you stay away you throw your vote away!

Friday, April 01, 2016

Why you should always vote!

I would rather see a 90% turnout with 60% voting for someone I didn't like than a 60 % turnout with 60% voting for someone I liked.

Think about it!  In the first case 54% of the eligible voters elected the winner.  This is democracy.  A government by "the people".

In the second case 36% of the eligible voters elected the winner.  This is oligarchy, government of the few.

Always vote!  You may not like your choice, but if you don't vote for "the lesser of two evils" you may get "the greater of two evils".

Also never ever believe polls.  Did they ask you who you would vote for?  Chances are better than 90% that they did not even call you.

Never respond to polls.  If you don't respond you increase the uncertainty of polls.  By increasing the uncertainty you will decrease the uncertainty of people who might not vote because their candidate was "down" in the polls.

Polls have another bad effect on democracy.  Candidates may change their messages to align with the polls.  If candidates ignored polls, they would work harder to convince you of their solutions.  if candidates adjusted their messages to match the polls, they might give you solutions which they have no intention of implementing.

Finally, my favorite mantra that I have yet to see elsewhere:

Always vote!
The only way you throw you vote away
Is to stay away!

Thursday, February 11, 2016

General Ization’s power grows

Despite my warning in the Reader Weekly of 2007-04-26 (General Ization Battles Truth), people keep enlisting in his armies and misleading others.

The latest is the sweeping generalization that this or that candidate “won” in the Iowa primaries.  Figuring out the Iowa caucus results is a bit of a slog, but looking at the result summary in the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/iowa), you will see that one candidate “winning” and the others ‘losing” is a serious over-generalization.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had 49.9% and was effectively awarded 23 delegates.  Bernie Sander had 49.6% and 21 delegates.  I would hardly call this a Clinton win, because Sanders received almost as many delegates as Clinton and who knows what will happen in the state convention when delegates are selected for the national convention?

On the Republican side, Ted Cruz had 27.6% of the vote and eight delegates, Donald Trump 24.3% and seven, and Marco Rubio 23.1% and seven.

These five candidates were all “winners” in the Iowa caucuses.  But how will these results translate into actual votes in November?  Iowa is a caucus state, not a primary state.  My guess is that a lot fewer people show up for caucuses than do for primaries, and a lot fewer show up for primaries than do for final elections.

The Iowa Secretary of State’s registered-voter list has 586,835 “active” Democratic voters and 615,763 “active” Republican voters.  But it lists 727,112 “No Party Active” voters.  The Republican caucus turnout was 186,874 or less than a third of the “active” Republican registered voters.

I would say that the biggest winner, based on the large number of “no-shows” in the Iowa caucuses was “None of the Above”, and that means the biggest loser is democracy.

“New Hampshire Embraces Trump’s New York Bombast” (New York Times Online 2016-02-07).  Really?  Did all the voters in New Hampshire really embrace Trumps bombast?  If we look at the figures of how many thousand New Hampshire voters actually turned up for Trump’s speeches, maybe the headline should read “New Hampshire Rejects Trump’s New York Bombast”.

Closer to home, the Duluth News Tribune has had headlines that imply all of Duluth is involved in something or other.

When a student died of exposure on Woodland Avenue, the News Tribune had a headline similar to “Duluth should be ashamed.”  Did each and every person in Duluth know she was outside freezing to death?  Was each and every driver passing by her house in any position to know that somebody was outside in need of help?  Were even any of the very few pedestrians in a position to see somebody huddled at a door?  Her death should never have happened, but only a few people were in any position to prevent this or come to her aid.

A recent headline was “Duluth feels ‘the Bern’”.  How many Duluthians showed up for Bernie Sanders’ rally in Duluth?  I think it was about 4,000.  That is a rather good turnout, but that also means that about 76,000 Duluth residents didn’t show up for Sanders’ rally.  How many would have liked to attend but didn’t for one reason or another?  How many didn’t even want to consider going?  We don’t know the numbers for either of these possibilities.  But considering that probably more than 4,000 Duluth voters would not vote for Sanders, we could also have the over-generalized headline: “Duluth rejects Sanders”.  If Sanders wins the Democratic endorsement, we will have to wait until November to find out if “Duluth rallies for Sanders” or if “Duluth rejects Sanders”.  Either headline will be a generalization because there will be a large number of people who voted for the Republican candidate.  These voters are also “Duluth”.

Since my previous column on General Ization, I’ve learned he would not have all this power without the able help of his lieutenants, Xavier Aggeration and Ms. Direction.  You can detect some of X. Aggeration’s contributions above.

Ms. Direction has been spreading the notion of “value voters” embracing the Republicans.  But don’t most voters have values?  Besides anti-abortion and Biblical literallism, aren’t there the values of peace and justice?  I find it strange that these “value voters” align themselves with supporters of “greedy corporations” who hold no values except “shareholder value”.

Ms. Direction, like her boss General Ization, doesn’t play favorites.  She spreads the idea of “greedy corporations” as if all corporations treat their workers as serfs and cheat their customers as often as they can.  There are many corporations that value their employees and often tell the regulators that something went wrong in the production of some product.  And we find many corporations that are changing their products to suit their customer’s wants.

Of course, they only know what some customers want.  Maybe other customers don’t want change, or if they want change, they want change back to products they could buy some years ago.  Hopefully, the customers that want certain changes are those who volunteered the information, not those who were coerced into agreeing to a desired response in a focus group.

This leads us into the worst generalization: “The People”.  It would be great if “The People” were a majority of all eligible voters.  Unfortunately, election after election it is a “majority” of those who actually show up to vote; this too often means that a minority of  eligible (and too often registered) voters “decided” the outcome.    I hope you, dear reader, are going to be one who shows up and shows General Ization, X. Aggeration, and Ms. Direction that they are wrong.

Also published in the Reader Weekly of Duluth on 2016-02-11 at http://duluthreader.com/articles/2016/02/11/6703_general_izations_power_grows.

See also http://magree.blogspot.com/2016/02/general-ization-battles-truth.html.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Do you give elections away?

Are you going to be in the 40% who lets the 31% decide who's going to be elected?

If you are among those who stay away in elections, then a majority of a 60% turnout is less than 31%.  Too many media outlets use "landslide" when the victor receives 55% of the vote.  If the turnout is only 60%, then the victor only received 33% of the eligible vote.

If these figures were reported more often, then maybe the "winners" would have less hubris when they take office.

Always vote because all votes count!

Monday, November 10, 2014

My great influence as a writer

Every so often, somebody tells me they enjoy my columns in the Reader Weekly of Duluth but few write a letter to the editor about my columns.

I have people all over the word read my blog entries, but I suspect many of them are only occasional readers or even reverse spammers.

Well, I just had the wet pail of reality dumped on my head.

Only three people have read “Be Counted!  We the People Are Counting on You”.  Even posting a link to it in a comment to a turnout article in the New York Times didn’t help.  In fact, only one person recommended my comment.

On the other hand, seven people have read “Consideration for Garlic Lovers”.

Oh, well!  I guess three readers is better than the none I would have had if I had left the ideas in my head.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Who decides? The many or the money?

Keith Ellison, U.S. Representative for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, wrote a good “Counterpoint” in today’s Star Tribune - “Minnesota Values Deserve Our Support”.

My favorite line is “…the voices of the many, not the money, should govern our democracy.”

If you are a U. S. citizen, I hope you have Tuesday, November 4, 2014 on your calendar to remind you to vote.  In fact, be sure that the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is on your calendar for every year.  Local and state officials need your electoral support, too.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

“Dollars don’t vote – you do” - David Brat

The full quote is “What you proved tonight is that dollars don’t vote – you do.”  See
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/david-brat-s-win-143742269.html

David Brat defeated Rep. Eric Cantor in the primary for the Republican nomination for the U.S. House District 7 in Virginia.

What was really proved is that elections are determined by who shows up and who doesn’t show up.

See also Politics: Don Givadam wins again.

I would like to amend my advice about voting with a more positive spin:

Always vote because every vote always counts.  If you stay away you give the election away.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Politics: Don Givadam wins again

Many a commentator is making a big deal about Representative Eric Cantor’s loss to a “Tea Party” candidate in the Virginia Republican primary.  But few look at how many actually voted.

From http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CON&map=CTY

Unoffical results 2014-06-11 15:22 EDT
Eric I. Cantor 28,902  44.45%
David A. Brat  36,120 55.55%
Total votes 65,022

However, there are 473,032 registered voters in Congressional District 7 which means that 13.75% of them voted for either Republican candidate.  Assuming that these registered voters are evenly split between “Republicans” and “Democrats”, then we could say that 27.5% of the registered Republicans bothered to show up.  Does that mean that 72.5% of the registered “Republicans” don’t care for either candidate or just plain don’t care to vote. If there are more “Republicans” than “Democrats”, the percent of “Republican” no-shows is even worse.

But, some who voted for Brat consider themselves “Democrats”.  They voted for him to get rid of Cantor.  See these admissions in the comments to http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/us/politics/after-eric-cantor-primary-defeat-house-republicans-take-stock.html  These “crossover” voters are probably a tiny percent of those who bothered to show; still, their votes won’t be there for Brat in November.  Also, how many Cantor supporters will be no shows in November?

I think we should get away from party primaries and have open primaries.  Those who didn’t give time or a dime to a political party should not be choosing a party’s candidates.

No matter your political preference, the lesson here is:

Always vote because every vote always counts.  If you stay away you give the election away.

See also "Dollars don't vote – you do" – David Brat.