Sunday, November 04, 2007

Iran will bring about World War III?

President George W. Bush thinks that Iran possessing nuclear weapons will bring about World War III. He may be right but have the circumstances all wrong.

If the U.S. attacks Iran, the world could turn against the U.S. The rest of the world would not attack the U.S., but the world population probably would prevent any democratic (and even some autocratic) governments from joining any "coalition of the willing." Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Many of the people of the world would probably make Americans and American companies very unwelcome. Remember, in WWI many American schools forbade the teaching of German and the U.S. Government confiscated the assets of the Bayer Company.

The antipathy towards things American and the stretching of resources to fight three wars at once would continue the relative decline of the American economy. Sure, the American economy is still growing, but others, like India and China, are growing even faster. Without an economy commensurate with the need to for a strong military, going to war will only accelerate the relative decline of the economy. History has many examples. See The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy.