"Those who stay flexible and realize the world is dynamic are better judges than those who pretend it's built on certainties."
- Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool, "How to Know When a Talking Head is Full of Hot Air"
Although Housel is writing in the context of those making stock market predictions, it can apply to many other situations. Just think of all those who think tax-cuts will solve all of our problems and of all those who think that more stimulus will solve all of our problems. The real fix is probably some combination of the two applied in the proper areas and at the proper time.
He recommends "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" by Philip Tetlock. Read Housel's article for a quick summary of Tetlock's reasoning.
Neither the Duluth Public Library nor the UMD Library have this book, but the UMD Library has three political psychology books of which Tetlock is a contributor or an editor.
