Winning candidates, be humble!

Most of the election results are in, and once again the "largest party" came in first.  The "largest party" is the party of no-shows, the eligible voters who chose to stay away.  The turn out figures are estimated to be around 60 percent.  In order to come in "first", a candidate would have to have about two-thirds of the votes cast.  Few, if any, have received this level of support.

Well, maybe in pockets here and there.  For example, Obama may have received 75 percent of the votes in Boston, but throughout the country, he received just over half the votes.

Some claim can be made that the Hurricane Sandy lowered the vote in New York and New Jersey, but  Sandy can't account for 19 percent fewer votes in Arizona and 25 percent fewer in Alaska.  Voter ID laws may have had some effect, but not that big in Alaska.

What would be interesting to know is how many 2008 Obama supporters stayed away because Obama didn't do all they wanted and how many Tea Partiers stayed away because Romney wasn't "pure" enough.

At least at the top of ballot, both Romney and Obama are acting humble.  Their speeches this morning were filled with gracious remarks.  Let's hope that these attitudes are shown by those down the ranks.

Thanks for reading

I would like to thank all who have been reading this blog, whether long-time readers or recent visitors.  The number of page views per day has gone way up for the couple of dozen per day.  I don't kid myself that I'm writing better.  It's mostly the same old stuff.

I think there are two factors, one mine and the other the times.

I've been writing more entries per day.  Probably because of the other factor.  It is election time in the United States, and so all the political junkies are looking for as many opinions and I like to peck out my opinions

I thank you for your visit to the "Irregular Blog", and I hope you will come back often.  And if you like what you read, please tell your family and friends.

Remember to vote

Tomorrow I plan to vote early, go to a class, see some friends for coffee, read and write some more, go out for pasta and a beer, and read about the results of the election Wednesday morning.  My wife, on the other hand, will be working as an election judge from the before the polls open until probably well after they close.  She will come home too tired to even listen to the radio or check her computer.

If you are an American citizen and have not cast an absentee ballot for the November 6, 2012 election, be sure to make every effort to show up and vote for the candidates and issues of your choice.  There are lots of choices of candidates and issues, wherever you live.

I'm sorry but it is hard not to close with an admonishment.  If you don't vote, don't complain about the results, especially to those who took the time and made the effort.

Barack Obama may be our first majority president if…

I am in a bit of self back-patting remembering my blog entries in 2008 predicting the Great Recession and that Obama would be elected President.

I refer to the first in "I predicted the Great Recession", the original being "Free market is a construct, not reality", January 2008.

I predicted the second in "We now have a three-party system" in June 2008.

"I think that Obama will win in a landslide because he represents the future.  He will win because he will get more people voting than ever.  He will win because he has built a strong organization of average people rather than of Washington insiders.  He will win because he is a better speaker and thinker.  Finally, he will win because people do want change."

Once Obama was in office, too many people expected immediate results.  In 2012, many of these with high-hopes didn't even show up, giving many elections to the Republicans.

Now in April 2012, I am not so sure yet, but that could change by the summer.  However, I do think that if certain things happen, then Obama might not only be re-elected but he may be the first President in a long, long time to get not only a plurality of eligible voters, but a majority of eligible voters.

Those certain things are a very high Democratic turnout and a lower Republican turnout.

If the Democrats put as much energy, time, and money into getting people to show up in November as they do countering Republican campaign speeches and ads, they could get a record turnout.

If many Republicans think that Romney is not conservative enough or if they don't want to vote for a Mormon, many of these will probably not even vote in November.

If many independents think that Romney is too conservative, they may either stay away or vote for Obama.

For Obama to be the first majority President, we would need a 90% turnout in November 2012 with 60% of those who show up voting for Obama.  Sixty percent of ninety percent means that 54 percent of eligible voters voted for Obama.

The reality is probably that we will be lucky to have 70% turnout with 50% of those voting for Obama, something less than that for Romney, and a few voting for Ron Paul or some other third-party candidate.