Barack Obama may be our first majority president if…

I am in a bit of self back-patting remembering my blog entries in 2008 predicting the Great Recession and that Obama would be elected President.

I refer to the first in "I predicted the Great Recession", the original being "Free market is a construct, not reality", January 2008.

I predicted the second in "We now have a three-party system" in June 2008.

"I think that Obama will win in a landslide because he represents the future.  He will win because he will get more people voting than ever.  He will win because he has built a strong organization of average people rather than of Washington insiders.  He will win because he is a better speaker and thinker.  Finally, he will win because people do want change."

Once Obama was in office, too many people expected immediate results.  In 2012, many of these with high-hopes didn't even show up, giving many elections to the Republicans.

Now in April 2012, I am not so sure yet, but that could change by the summer.  However, I do think that if certain things happen, then Obama might not only be re-elected but he may be the first President in a long, long time to get not only a plurality of eligible voters, but a majority of eligible voters.

Those certain things are a very high Democratic turnout and a lower Republican turnout.

If the Democrats put as much energy, time, and money into getting people to show up in November as they do countering Republican campaign speeches and ads, they could get a record turnout.

If many Republicans think that Romney is not conservative enough or if they don't want to vote for a Mormon, many of these will probably not even vote in November.

If many independents think that Romney is too conservative, they may either stay away or vote for Obama.

For Obama to be the first majority President, we would need a 90% turnout in November 2012 with 60% of those who show up voting for Obama.  Sixty percent of ninety percent means that 54 percent of eligible voters voted for Obama.

The reality is probably that we will be lucky to have 70% turnout with 50% of those voting for Obama, something less than that for Romney, and a few voting for Ron Paul or some other third-party candidate.

We don't have political parties, we have dreaming parties

We have one party that engages in wistful thinking and another that engages in wishful thinking.  One dreams of a time that never was and the other of a time that never will be.

Too many commentators try to make a continuum from one to the other.  What we really need are a political party or two that can define the real problems of here and now and come up with practical solutions for them.  These would not be "moderate" parties, taking a little bit from one side and a little bit from the other.  These would be parties that are interested in governance over grandstanding.

It's happened before in our country, but we are 150 years overdue for it happening again.

How to get serious about "throwing the bums out"?

If you are tired of the same old, same old with politicians, no matter what the party, you have a choice but few exercise it.  Vote for none of the above, whether it's on the ballot or not.

You can do this in on of two ways.  Write in a candidate of your choice or leave that particular item blank.

I remember reading that a hippo in a Brazilian zoo once got more votes than any of the candidates on the ballot.  I would recommend writing in Mickey Mouse, but we should consider the vote counters.  They work long hours, and they don't need to count hundreds of write-in votes.

If you leave a particular choice blank, then that will reduce the percentage of votes for all candidates.  That means if enough voters leave a choice blank, the leading candidate may get less than 50% of votes.  That would hardly be a mandate.

However, if you do neither of the above and stay home, the leading candidate may get 52% of the vote and claim a "mandate" from "the voters".

My wife just said that we need to get into the popular vernacular "A blank ballot is a vote for change!"

Let's make this idea viral!  Pass on this entry or its link to as many friends as you think would be receptive to politics as unusual.