Quote of the day: foreign policy tantrums

"Unfortunately, U.S. policy towards Cuba resembles a 50-year tantrum, rather than a coherent plan for encouraging a transition to democracy. "The Castros, Cuba, and America: On the road towards capitalism", The Economist, 2012-03-24, reprinted in the Star Tribune, 2012-03-27

I am always amazed as to how long the U.S. government holds grudges; these put it in the same play pen as North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran.  I suppose internal U.S. politics has more to do with this silliness than practical diplomacy.  I hope it doesn't take another Nixon to take the initiative like he did with China.

I've been wondering lately why the U.S. doesn't say to Iran, "We are sorry that we overthrew Mossadegh and supported the Shah.  Now would you apologize for the taking over of our embassy?"  Oh, but I forgot internal U.S. politics!

A butterfly flapped its wings in Tunisia

A student, Mohamed Bouazizi, is selling vegetables in Tunis to support his family.  A policewoman complains that he doesn't have the proper permit.  In the argument, she slaps him.  He is humiliated and sets himself on fire.  This in turn sets many Arab countries on fire.

Many have complained that the U.S. with its vast intelligence network didn't foresee this.  Consider that many didn't foresee the fall of the Czar of Russia.  Consider that Winston Churchill said in the 1920s that he thought war with Japan was impossible.

Other than knowing that kowtowing to dictators is itself playing with fire, I won't pretend to judge the intelligence community.  I'll let you read some short analyses by other commentators.  See "Why Didn't the U.S. Foresee the Arab Revolts?", Room for Debate, New York Times, 2011-02-24.