Sleepwalking to war, quote of the day

“The sleepwalkers of 2017 should consider: On the brink of conflict, you never know just where the edge of the cliff may be.”

- David Ignatius, “What North Korea told a U.N. envoy trying to prevent war”, Washington Post, 2017-12-19

"Sleepwalkers" is a reference to "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914", Christopher Clark

Donald Trump has worn me down

When I read the reports of Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations, I could not get over the feeling that it was George Washington’s worst nightmare.

Washington warned against factions.  Donald Trump is creating them faster than I can even type “faction”.

In his Farewell Address, which the Senate reads every year and then ignores, George Washington warned against factions:

“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism.”

Donald Trump railed against North Korea and Iran.  George Washington warned against being too close to other nations and against being too hostile to foreign nations:

“Against the insidious wiles of foreign influence (I conjure you to believe me, fellow citizens) the jealousy of a free people ought to be constantly awake, since history and experience prove that foreign influence is one of the most baneful foes of republican government. But that jealousy to be useful must be impartial; else it becomes the instrument of the very influence to be avoided, instead of a defense against it. Excessive partiality for one foreign nation and excessive dislike of another cause those whom they actuate to see danger only on one side, and serve to veil and even second the arts of influence on the other. Real patriots, who may resist the intrigues of the favorite, are liable to become suspected and odious, while its tools and dupes usurp
the applause and confidence of the people to surrender
their interests.”

I plan to send this reminder to my Senators: Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.  If you are a U.S. reader, I hope you will send something similar to your Senators, regardless of their party.

But I have no idea how many real, live U.S. readers I have.  Every so often I get a big wave of Russian readers.  My feed is generally United Kingdom readers.  I get a lot of French readers, but I only have three correspondents in France.  Are these other readers really French, or are they Russian trolls?  I do know that at least one U.S. troll site is really a Russian front.

These trolls and Donald Trump have worn me down.  I don’t really know when I will be inspired to post more here.

North Korea and Washington’s Farewell Address

"The nation which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest." - George Washington, "Farewell Address" The U.S. Senate has one of its members read this every year. Do most of them stay away or sleep through it?

Posted to http://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/opinion/north-korea-nuclear-program-trump.html?comments#permid=23130284.

Playing the right game with North Korea

Maybe the best solution is to send a Korean-speaking envoy who plays jang-gi (a strategy board game). Such an envoy could probably get a better dialogue going with Kim Jong-un in a week than a year of huffing and puffing from Washington. Many in Washington would think this a fool's errand, but I think George Washington would definitely approve (see "Farewell Address", https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21/pdf/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21.pdf).

Comment to “Kim Jong-un is not a freakish buffoon”, David C. Kang, New York Times, 2017-07-05
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/opinion/kim-jong-un-north-korea-sanctions.html?comments#permid=23152988

Hypocritic oath and an ignored reading

"The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."

U.S. Constitution, Article VI

Somehow, we have a Congress that gave an oath to the Koch brothers and made sure they passed the religious anti-tax test of Grover Norquist.

Every year the Senate has a public reading of George Washington’s “Farewell Address” and the next day they ignore what he wrote.  Maybe many of them stayed away during the reading or slept through it.

"Observe good faith and justice towards all nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all; religion and morality enjoin this conduct, and can it be that good policy does not equally enjoin it? It will be worthy of a free, enlightened, and, at no distant period, a great nation, to give to mankind the magnanimous and too novel example of a people always guided by an exalted justice and benevolence.  Who can doubt that in the course of time and things the fruits of such a plan would richly repay any temporary advantages which might be lost by a steady adherence to it?  Can it be, that Providence has not connected the permanent felicity of a nation with its virtue? The experiment, at least, is recommended by every sentiment which ennobles human nature. Alas! is it rendered impossible by its vices?

"In the execution of such a plan nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations and passionate attachments for others should be excluded and that in place of them just and amicable feelings towards all should be cultivated. The nation which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest. Antipathy in one nation against another disposes each more readily to offer insult and injury, to lay hold of slight causes of umbrage, and to be haughty and intractable when accidental or trifling occasions of dispute occur. Hence frequent collisions, obstinate, envenomed, and bloody contests. The nation, prompted by ill will and resentment, sometimes impels to war the government, contrary to the best calculations of policy. The government sometimes participates in the national propensity and adopts through passion what reason would reject; at other times, it makes the animosity of the nation subservient to projects of hostility instigated by pride, ambition and other sinister and pernicious motives. The peace often, sometimes perhaps the liberty, of nations has been the victim."

Who has the U.S. become beholden to either as a friend or as an enemy: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, North Korea, Cuba .

Corporate efficiency?

Olive is software to put facsimiles of the newspaper print editions on line.  By clicking on an article, a reader can see a more screen friendly copy of an article.  Both the Duluth News Tribune and the Star Tribune have Olive editions.  I subscribe to both, partly to get the comics rather than the text of some of the articles.

But for years the Olive edition has had a major flaw; a flaw that still exists in the current version rolled out last year.  I don't know where they get o• writing about people like Je•rey.

The Olive edition of the 2017-04-17 Duluth News Tribune converted a USA Today article about North Korea to:

"The secretive state also showed o• a submarine-launched missile that it successfully fired last year.
"Analysts said that the weapons on display raised new questions about North Korea’s capacities going forward. Je•rey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Calif., called the show 'a bewildering array of new missile-related hardware.'"

I did change the quote marks to match the standard for quoting material that includes quotes.

Given all the product recalls, the unfriendly skies of the airlines, and much more, I would say the only efficiency in far too many corporations is move as much revenue as possible to the CEOs and board members.  Gosh, I wish I could get $250,000 or more for showing up for six board meetings a year.  And many of these people, including the CEO's are on the boards of several companies.

Trump and Nuclear War

I am worried that Charles M. Blow is a Cassandra.  He speaks the truth but nobody believes his warnings of doom. See Charles M. Blow, “Are You Not Alarmed”.  See https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/opinion/are-you-not-alarmed.html

I left the following comment, but as far as I know, it was not approved.

After a nuclear war, will Donald Trump have become the last President of the United States? Sad!

Quote of the day: corporation interest in strong dollar

"The reason that our government doesn’t intervene to push down the value of the dollar is that powerful U.S. transnational corporations like Wal-Mart prefer a strong dollar because it makes imports and overseas labor cheaper for them.”

“Will Trump outdo Obama in handling US-China: No: Even before taking office, Trump has made a mess”
- Mark Weisbrot, Duluth News Tribune, 2016-01-07

The “other side” is “Yes: His policies will protect our allies, economy, citizens from Chinese bullying”
- Pete Hoekstra

Why does so much writing, politics, and whatever have to be either/or?  There are so many more considerations than “either side” puts forth.

In support of Weisbrot, I’d cite “You can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.”  Also, Republicans have turned the Constitution upside down so many times; in this case they have replaced Congress has the power to regulate commerce among the states to commerce having the power to regulate Congress!!

I wonder if any other democratic nation has as many “pariah” states as the United States: Cuba, North Korea, and Iran.  Yet we support many broken or rigid states far worse than Iran.

Bombs away!

No, I don’t mean drop bombs from an airplane.  I mean bombs go away, bombs never to be used again.  Let’s get rid of nuclear weapons, drone bombers, conventional bombs, cannons, and all other weapons that indiscriminately kill bad people as well as good people.

Yes, ’n’ how many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
Yes, ’n’ how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?

From Bob Dylan’s web site at  http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/blowin-wind

Unfortunately, the answer is not blowing in the wind from the mouths of politicians around the world.  They blow out phrases like “defense”, “saving jobs”, and “gun rights”.

We should ask “defense of what”?  Defense of the right to tell other people how to live?  Defense from dictators?  Strange, we are allies with lots of dictators, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  Oh, but they are “our” dictators, not “their” dictators.  Defense from Communism?  Communism as a label is all but dead.  “Communism” in China is just a label for another dictatorship that is withering away.  “Communism” in North Korea is a name for a paranoid dictatorship.  Our “defense” against North Korea only serves to feed the paranoia.

Another paranoid quasi-dictatorship is Russia.  But consider the historical reason for its paranoia.  The Mongols invaded, the French invaded, the Germans invaded twice, and now the alliance that was built as defense against the Soviet Union keeps expanding, feeding the paranoia of not only Vladimir Putin, but many ordinary Russians.  Of course, it doesn’t help the alliance that Putin’s given name contains the Russian words for lord and world.

If we are so interested in “saving jobs”, we should never have instituted Prohibition.  Think of how many bartenders, servers, distillers, and brewers lost their jobs.  Prohibition did help the gun industry, guns for both the bootleggers and for the police.

Do we want to “save jobs” at the cost of lives far, far away?  How many wedding guests should die because somebody up in the sky decided the guests were “terrorists”?  How many hospitals must be destroyed because enemy combatants were believed to be hiding there?  Interesting, the “enemy combatants” live in the country; the bombers are from a country far, far away.

I didn’t know guns had “rights”.  As far as protection in case of a terrorist attack, would more people die because some of the target group had weapons?  John pulls out a gun to shoot the terrorists.  Mary sees John with a gun in his hand and thinking he is a terrorist, shoots him.  Even the police have a hard time shooting the terrorists.  And the police get wounded and killed.  Major Hassan at Fort Hood wounded and downed a police officer who had excellent scores in marksmanship.  Her partner managed to wound Hassan enough to get him to stop shooting.

Maybe the better idea is to keep military-style weapons in armories and not make them easily available to the general public.  Many seem to have forgotten that we had armories to keep the more deadly weapons away from the general public but available to the militia in case of insurrection.

Another better idea is to use propaganda instead of bombs.

Instead of attacking Israel, Palestinian protesters should fly children’s balloons over Israel.  Each balloon would carry a slip of paper with the words of Hillel in Hebrew: “Do not unto your neighbor what you would not have him do unto you; this is the whole Law; the rest is commentary.”

Instead of burying Daesh terrorists in bomb debris, bury them in pamphlets: “...and you should forgive and overlook: Do you not like God to forgive you? And Allah is The Merciful Forgiving.” _ Qur’an (Surah 24, “The Light”, v. 22)

And of course, the “bomb them back to the Stone Age” bloviators who claim to be “Christian” should receive letters from their constituents: “Therefore all things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you, do ye even so to them: for this is the law and the prophets.” – Jesus of Nazareth, Matthew 7:12

I am surprised that Iran didn’t use this latter quotation with those negotiating to stop Iran’s nuclear capacity.  All the nuclear-armed negotiators except the Chinese purport to be Christians.  If the negotiating countries didn’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons, shouldn’t Iran have proposed some schedule for these “nuclear powers” to eliminate their nuclear weapons?

Maybe the only answer is for a peace coalition to be formed in the United Nations.  It could start with countries without militaries, like Iceland and Costa Rica.  This coalition could offer a time table for the elimination of nuclear weapons, then of massive navies, then of bombs, then of armies.

Impossible?  Improbable?  Maybe!  Consider that Europe had a very vicious war, with many, many civilian deaths on both sides, seventy years ago.  The Cold War ended twenty-four years ago.  And a country divided by that war is now a major player on the world stage.

The answer my friend is blowing in your votes!

Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names cannot hurt me

"A faith that cannot withstand ridicule is no faith at all. And a faith that cannot laugh at itself is a faith that defies human nature."
- “Your Free Speech, and Mine”, Timothy Egan, New York Times, 2015-01-16

There are too many people and too many governments that take offense too easily at any criticism of their religion or their government.  They are so insecure in their beliefs or of their power that they are willing to kill those who criticize them.

The current political insecurity is shown by the North Korean government.  They can’t take the spoof of their leader in an American film.  One, should they worry about a rebellion in North Korea because of this film?  It will definitely not be shown publicly.  Two, have they considered the spoofs of American politicians that are made daily in all kinds of media all across Europe and the Americas?  Does President Obama really have such big ears as drawn by many cartoonists?

The current religious insecurity is shown by those who take offense at caricatures of Mohammed.  This is also a political insecurity by certain governments who use religion to control their people.  Have they considered all the spoofs of religion and religious figures that have been made for centuries in Europe and the Americas?  Does the Pope really wear such a high mitre that his aides have to check the height of a bridge before the Pope can ride under it?

Wiley’s “Non Sequitur” frequently draws the foibles of people entering heaven.  I bet most of us have seen over a dozen cartoons in the last year from a variety of cartoonists picturing God.

Many of you probably know several jokes about religion.  Here are a few that I’ve known for decades.  I’ve shortened them a bit to save space.

A priest and a rabbi golfed together every Sunday afternoon for many years.  One day the priest asked the rabbi if he ever ate ham.  Hem, haw! “Well, yes, I have.”  “Tasted pretty good, huh?”  A couple holes later the rabbi asked the priest if he ever slept with a woman.  Hem, haw!  “Well, yes, I have.”  “Better than ham, huh?”

Two priests and a Protestant minister went fishing together.  After a bit, one priest said he forgot something on shore and walked across the water to shore and came back.  A bit later the other priest did the same.  The Protestant minister had to show that he could walk on water also.  He stepped out of the boat and sank up to his neck.  One priest asked the other, “Do you think we should have told him where the rocks are?”

Jews tell this about themselves: If two Jews are in a room there will be three opinions.  You can substitute Unitarians for Jews and probably several other religious groups.

Garrison Keillor claims the original settlers of Lake Wobegon were Unitarian missionaries, one of whom wanted to convert the Ojibwe with interpretative dance.

For a lot more jokes about Unitarians, see http://www.imladris.com/Sandbox/index.shtml?UuJokes.html.  The lead paragraph is “Many of these jokes are collected in the fine volume "The Church Where People Laugh" by Gwen Foss. They're full of unwarranted stereotypes suggesting that all UUs are flaky, coffee-swilling environmentally fanatical atheists ... as a UU, I find them hilarious.“

Monty Python produced two popular movies heavy on spoofs of religion: “Life of Brian” and “Monty Python and the Holy Grail”.

Ah, “The Holy Grail”!  There is a violent religion for you.  All the Christians that pillaged their way across Europe and the Near East to drive Muslims out of the Holy Land.  And many of them made alliances with the Muslim rulers.

Even religious groups that many consider strait-laced can laugh at themselves.

“A teacher asked her students to bring an item to class that represented their religious beliefs. A Catholic student brought a crucifix. A Jewish student brought a Menora. A Southern Baptist student brought a CorningWare.”

For many more like this, see http://www.christianpost.com/buzzvine/7-southern-baptist-ecumenical-jokes-that-will-have-you-rofl-107419/.

I was given a book by a French friend, “Dieu rit en Alsace” (“God laughs in Alsace”).  It has many anecdotes about clergy and lay people.  One of my favorites is about a young Protestant pastor asked to perform a wedding in another town.  He directed the couple to exchange knees and bend their rings.  I wish I still had the book to see the original German and all my other favorites in French.  I hope the person I lent it to can find it.

I wonder if God is so great, then can't he take care of blasphemers like he did with the Great Flood or with Sodom and Gomorrah?

I think those who criticize “blasphemy” are insecure in their own beliefs.  Like the North Korean leaders they see everything that contradicts their world view as a physical threat to themselves.  Many believe that the best counter to “blasphemy” or any insult is to dismiss these with “consider the source”.

Take a look at the “Charlie Hebdo” cover.  It was republished last week in both the Reader Weekly and the Duluth News Tribune.  Isn’t Mohammed shedding a tear about the violence done is his name?  At least twice this past week I’ve seen Muslims retell the story of Mohammed’s forgiveness of a women who threw garbage at him as he passed her house.

“...and you should forgive And overlook: Do you not like God to forgive you? And Allah is The Merciful Forgiving.” – Qur’an

“Life ain't no how serious.  We have met the enemy and he is us.” – Pogo

“Can't we all just get along?” –  Rodney King

Je suis Charlie!  Je suis Ahmed!

Insecure believers and non-believers

"Insecure believers sometimes cling to a rigid and simplistic faith."
- David Brooks, "The Subtle Sensations of Faith", New York Times, 2014-12-23

The insecure believers make the headlines or the history books.  Think of all the "Islamists" who want to kill anyone who does not believe as they do.  Think of the Ku Klux Klan, the Protestants and Catholic gunmen of Northern Ireland, the Communists of North Korea, and many more "true believers".

We also have so-called non-believers who have to attack those who claim to believe.

Maybe I'm being a hypocrite here because I have questioned the texts that many base their beliefs on.  However, it is only the texts I question, not the belief in something greater than oneself.  But I have no problem with people who believe in something I don't believe in.  My problem is with those who want to "prove" that they are right because of something somebody long ago wrote as "fact".

For example, did Adam and Eve really exist?  Or are they metaphor for our hubris that we "know better than God"?

What we really should consider is "moral truth" over "mythical truth".  For example, was God really tempted by Satan to severely test Job, or is the Book of Job an exploration of why bad things happen to good people?

The Axis of Weasels

Syria, Iran, and North Korea have voted against the Arms Trade Treaty.  An axis of weasels that would rather have the right to threaten opponents, domestic and foreign, than have a reduction in the arms trade that enables petty tyrants and terrorists to destabilize countries.

Now, thanks to a few who wrongly fear that the Arms Trade Treaty would take away their right to have their guns, the United States may be prohibited by a vote of the Senate from signing the treaty, thus joining the Axis of Weasels.

Oh, well, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who warned against the military-industrial complex would be a RINO to those opposing the Arms Trade Treaty.

See "Tell the Truth about the Arms Trade Treaty", Rachel Stohl, New York Times, 2013-04-11

War of words better than war of swords

Iran threatens to sue Google over dropping the name of the Persian Gulf from Google Maps.  See
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sue-google-over-dropping-092013861.html

Probably Google was caught between a rock and a hard place because Arabs want to call it the Arabian Gulf. 

Maybe the best way of dealing with Iran's supposed development of nuclear weapons is to sue them over violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.  Sure, it was signed during the Shah's regime, but the current government has not withdrawn from the treaty as has North Korea according to Wikipedia's List of Parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Quote of the day: foreign policy tantrums

"Unfortunately, U.S. policy towards Cuba resembles a 50-year tantrum, rather than a coherent plan for encouraging a transition to democracy. "The Castros, Cuba, and America: On the road towards capitalism", The Economist, 2012-03-24, reprinted in the Star Tribune, 2012-03-27

I am always amazed as to how long the U.S. government holds grudges; these put it in the same play pen as North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran.  I suppose internal U.S. politics has more to do with this silliness than practical diplomacy.  I hope it doesn't take another Nixon to take the initiative like he did with China.

I've been wondering lately why the U.S. doesn't say to Iran, "We are sorry that we overthrew Mossadegh and supported the Shah.  Now would you apologize for the taking over of our embassy?"  Oh, but I forgot internal U.S. politics!

Iran - Questions for American hawks

First, a little history.  In 1914 the Archduke Frantz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated in Sarajevo, Serbia.  The Austrian government gave an ultimatum to Serbia, of which Serbia agreed to most terms except allowing Austrian police to participate in the investigation of the assassination.  Rather than negotiate, Austria attacked Serbia.  The consequences were as bad as all the participants believed they would be and worse.  We are still living with those consequences nearly a century later.

Now many demands are being made of Iran concerning its nuclear ambitions.  Many in the U.S. and Israel are ready to go to war against Iran if those demands aren't met.  Have these hawks considered ALL the possible effects of such a war?

Let's ask some "trivial" questions first.

Many of these hawks want low taxes.  If taxes are low and kept low, where is the money to come from to wage a new war?

Many of these hawks want low oil prices.  If Iran is attacked, what will happen to oil prices?

Many of these hawks want to protect the unborn.  If Iran is attacked, how many unborn children will die?  Do you really think only soldiers will die in any modern war?

Now let's look at some more global issues.

If Saudi Arabia feels threatened by Iranian nuclear ambitions, shouldn't Saudi Arabia be the country to act?  After all, the U.S. has sold them many, many advanced military aircraft.  Shouldn't Saudi pilots be able to operate these aircraft efficiently and effectively?  If not, why sell the aircraft to Saudi Arabia in the first place?

If the U.S. attacks Iran, this will be the third Muslim country the U.S. has invaded in a generation.  What will be the reaction be of many Muslims throughout the world?  Will there be a rush of Mujahideen to Iran?  What side will various Muslim governments take?

Will a U.S. attack on Iran bring about the fall of many pro-U.S. Muslim governments.  If so, which side will the new governments take?  If the government of an oil-producing nation falls, will the new government continue or cease oil deliveries to the U.S. or to European countries?

What will the reaction of Pakistan be to an attack on Iran?  Will the current generals do nothing?  Will they be replaced in a coup by more hawkish officers?  Officers who will be quite willing to aim nuclear weapons at U.S. forces or even U.S. territory?

There are more Muslims living in India than in Pakistan.  Would Indian Muslims stage a coup and join in resisting a U.S. attack on Iran?  India also has nuclear weapons.

What side will Russia and China take?

If Iran is attacked, what will North Korea's reaction be?  It has been unpredictable and is not known for acting in its long-term interests.

I think it is safe to say that if the U.S. (or Israel) attacks Iran, many people will die who have nothing to do with the current Iranian government or its nuclear programs.  Also, I think it is safe to say that the negative repercussions of an attack will last for at least two generations and maybe even a century.

Meanwhile, for over two generations the U.S. has called the largest offensive military force in the world "defense".  At the same time. those who have been the biggest proponents of the military have done their best to sabotage a true defense - energy independence.  They have opposed many efforts for alternative fuels and for greater energy efficiency.

"When will they ever learn?"  "The answer is blowin' in the wind."  They didn't.

The Anglo-Mexican War: Ten Years in

By 2050 Mexico had restored much of the area of Aztec and Mayan control, from the Rio Grande to the Panama Canal.  In 2050 Mexico saw its chance to expand its control.  The U.S. was now bogged down in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Korea.  In the name of the freedom of Latinos in the Southwest U.S., Mexico invaded California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

After pushing the overburdened U.S. Army out and quelling the Tea Party Patriots, Mexican forces met resistance from Los Insurgentes, a loose confederation of Apache, Hopi, Navaho, and descendants of immigrants from Mexico.

Losses for the Mexican army are now over 15,000.  Five thousand of those were killed when Los Insurgentes lured the Mexican Army into the Grand Canyon and then blew up the Glen Canyon Dam.

The fiercest fighting has been in East Los Angeles where many of the gangs have ambushed Mexican patrols.  The gangs have used the sewer system to great effect to move around the city.  The Mexican army has tried booby traps, tear gas, and other means to hinder the Los Insurgents; but Los Insurgents often seem to be able to turn these back on the Mexican Army.

Mexico City itself had been filled with demonstrations in support of the troops and demonstrations protesting the war.  One of the biggest scandals was the discovery that the government had hired drug lords as contractors to quell the violence in the American cities.  The actions of the contractors have further alienated the residents and all but eliminated any cooperation with the Mexican Army.

Although President Volpe was re-elected in a landslide because he played on the patriotism of the Mexican people, the cost of the war in its tenth year is draining his support rapidly.  People complain that taxes are too high and that the government has done little to alleviate the three-year-long recession.

This just in!  President Volpe has appointed Pedro Santos as Generalissimo of La Reconquista.  President Volpe said that Generalissimo Santos has a plan to bring the war to a close in two years.  An editorial in La Jornada pointed out that Generalissimo Santos' predecessor said the same thing two years ago.

Coincidences or premonitions, chicken or egg

Last week I was doing a crossword puzzle and the clue was "An Oldsmobile model". I hadn't a clue but from other clues I had a-blank-ero. I don't remember if I took a guess at Alero or saw it in the next day's paper. A few days later I was in a gas station and noticed an Oldsmobile up on a hoist; it was an Alero.

Also last week I was asked at coffee if I knew what the name Pomfret had been attached to as a condition or a situation. I looked it up on my iPod and found only that pomfret was another name for the fish pampano. A few days later I saw an article in a newspaper written by Keith Pomfret (or was it John Pomfret of "Pomfret's China").

Did the first instance of each of these links forewarn me that the second instance would occur? Or did the first instance prime me to see the second instance. That is, if I hadn't seen the reference in the first instance then I would have never noticed the second instance.

I'll go with the second case. There are so many references that I see that I never see anything similar for many weeks thereafter.

And then serendipity strikes. Trying to find a reference to Pomfret in the Washington Post, I found "Why China Won't Do More With North Korea" by John Pomfret. It is worth your consideration; so often we take a view of world events congruent with our own interests and don't delve into what the interests of others are.

New spear proliferation

Way back when on the island of Gaia, people settled disputes with clubs. Then Shama, who lived in the west of Gaia, discovered he could make tools with flint. He even discovered that he could put a flint tip on a heavy stick and throw it at somebody attacking him with a club. He began making more and more spears to protect himself from those with clubs.

Shama's stockpile of spears frightened Putmed who lived in the north of Gaia. Putmed began stockpiling spears to defend himself against Shama. This frightened Shama even more and he began stockpiling even more spears.

But Maowen who lived in the east of Gaia was also frightened by these two stockpiles. Maowen was loosely allied with Putmed, but he didn't fully trust Putmed to protect his interests. He too began stockpiling spears. He never stockpiled as many as Shama or Putmed, but they made him less insecure about an attack by either.

Shama, Putmed, and Maowen realized their own stockpiles were a threat to themselves and reached an understanding to not attack each other with clubs or spears.

Kog lived on a tiny peninsula of Gaia and he was frightened by all three of his co-islanders' stockpiles. Although he had some of the same ideas as Putmed and Maowen, he couldn't be sure they would support him against Shama. He decided he should start making his own spears. None of his spears worked very well; he couldn't aim them very well and the flints often came off in flight. Nonetheless, Kog was very unpredictable and Shama, Putmed, and Maowen couldn't be sure that he might throw spears at them.

Shama, Putmed, and Maowen told Kog that he shouldn't have any spears, but the more they told him this, the more he wanted to have spears.

The historical record is incomplete as to what happened next, but Gaia is devoid of human habitation. Archeologists have uncovered many skeletons in all parts of Gaia with spears through the bodies.

Peace brings more change than war?

Roger Cohen wrote an interesting piece on the change that is coming to China and Vietnam, despite being officially one-party states and Communist to boot: "Peaceful Evolution Angst", New York Times, 2009-05-24.

Now that neither has any real threat of war with the West and has been incorporated into the community of nations, these governments have put more energy into the prosperity of their people and used less ideology to govern. For these states, "Communism is little more than the brand name given to power retention."

Power retention has become a bit more difficult because "Technology has taken the 'total' out of totalitarian." The governments may draw red lines around certain activities, but those red lines are very porous.

I've been wondering about the problem of North Korea. If China and Vietnam have become more open and less paranoid, what can we do to reduce the paranoia in North Korea? I hope we don't have to wait for a Moderate Party president to visit North Korea.