Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Small things can make a big difference

After my voice lesson today, I decided to stop at the Red Mug in Superior for a mocha.

I waffled over the 12 oz. and the 16 oz., and I decided for the 12 oz. because I would have change for a tip. I neglected sales tax, which would have given me hang for a tip in either case.

I also wanted to access the web with my iPod, but I had to have a userID and password. I could hardly see what was needed because the log-in page was dark print on a dark red background. I did get the info from a barista, but I had trouble because the userID was case sensitive.

I eventually got online, read several articles in The Huffington Post, and drank my mocha. When the mocha was done, I went out to my car. Surprise! Traffic was backed up from the railroad crossing to my car. I wasn't going anywhere until the train was through the crossing and the backed-up traffic had moved forward.

My first stop after the coffee stop was at a bank to get a roll of quarters for our morning newspapers. After I parked my car and walked to the bank, I checked my watch. It was four minutes to five. The bank would close soon. I made it and got my roll of quarters.

What if I hadn't gotten the quarters. I might not have walked to the corner tomorrow for the newspapers but gone elsewhere. If I went elsewhere for the newspapers, what chain of events might have been set in motion.

Consider the ifs that could have changed the whole afternoon:

If I had not stopped for a mocha,
If I had ordered a different size,
If I had not used my iPod,
If Huffington Post had published less or more articles that caught my interest,
If the train had been shorter or longer or earlier or later,
If I had parked at the bank rather than nearby stores, and
If who knows what else.

Think of all the big and little things that have happened because one small thing was changed. What if somebody who became a CEO had started with a different company? What if an inventor hadn't made a certain mistake? What if a guard hadn't been sleepy on a certain night?

We'll never know. The person could have become CEO of one of several companies. The inventor could have done any one of different things that would have led to his invention. The guard could have been sleepy on any other night except that one. Or no matter what any of these people did, their lives might have been humble and uneventful, relatively speaking.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Chaos, noise, and chance can reward the prepared

One of my coffee companions is always trying to put certain group behaviors into some large philosophical context. Some of us think that people are more independent than stereotypes. That is, our lives are governed as much by chance as by some cultural norms. It is chance that often leads to extraordinary happenings.

Today was another ordinary day that was extraordinary. It was ordinary in that I walked to a coffee shop, went to the library, and got a haircut. Well, not quite, I wouldn't ordinarily do the last two this week.

I went to the library to check for a missing book. I had returned a downtown book to the branch library, but the records showed I didn't return it. I was sure I had and couldn't find it in the house or either of our vehicles. Yesterday I double checked the downtown library. Today I checked the branch library, and, lucky me and lucky library, it was shelved in proper Dewey order in the wrong library. This is part of the chaos, a librarian was probably rushed and shelved the downtown book locally.

While looking for the missing book, I saw "The Language Police" by Diane Ravitch. It's about censorship and bowdlerization in the schools. The jacket says it's "a case of the bland leading the bland." I'll have to get this book when I finish those I am currently reading.

I normally wouldn't be getting a haircut this week and I would normally have gotten it earlier, but the barber isn't at my beck and call. Being later allowed me time to go to the library. Because I went to the barber after leaving the coffee shop and library, I returned home on the other side of the street.

I've been thinking of a photo essay on "The ugly side of Duluth", all the streets and sidewalk needing maintenance or repair, the overgrown trees and shrubs blocking the sidewalk, and so on. As I walked by a small green area of UMD, I noticed two pop cans on an otherwise neatly kept area. It was an interesting juxtaposition with all the mushrooms growing because of the recent rains.

Just as I put my camera back in my case, I heard a car honk. I looked up and saw a car braking for a deer running across the road. It was gone in the brush on the other side of the street before I could get my camera out.

As I continued I saw a deer peeping over a hedge in a yard. I got out my camera and managed one picture before it bounded around the house. Then I saw another deer on the other side of the yard. I kept taking pictures as fast as I could and got one very clear one with the deer trotting towards the back yard. As I was trying for a few more, I noticed that the camera would no longer zoom. I had pushed the off button instead of the shutter. More chaos.

Thatcher's law has been proved again: "The unexpected happens; you had better prepare for it."

See also my two identically titled articles, One thing leads to another (Aug. 4, 2005) and One thing leads to another (Nov. 10, 2005)