We really should pay attention to the stay-aways who might have given the election away. Were there more “Democrats” who stayed away because Hilary Clinton was not the best possible candidate, or were there more “Republicans” who stayed because Donald Trump was the worst possible candidate?
My comment to “Trump King of Chaos” at http://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/04/opinion/trump-king-of-chaos.html?comments#permid=26207463:26212200.
Also scroll down for “Quote of the day” to
“Remember no drama Obama---how I long for those days.”
ACJ, Chicago
2018-03-05
Showing posts with label chaos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chaos. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 06, 2018
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Chaos, noise, and chance can reward the prepared
One of my coffee companions is always trying to put certain group behaviors into some large philosophical context. Some of us think that people are more independent than stereotypes. That is, our lives are governed as much by chance as by some cultural norms. It is chance that often leads to extraordinary happenings.
Today was another ordinary day that was extraordinary. It was ordinary in that I walked to a coffee shop, went to the library, and got a haircut. Well, not quite, I wouldn't ordinarily do the last two this week.
I went to the library to check for a missing book. I had returned a downtown book to the branch library, but the records showed I didn't return it. I was sure I had and couldn't find it in the house or either of our vehicles. Yesterday I double checked the downtown library. Today I checked the branch library, and, lucky me and lucky library, it was shelved in proper Dewey order in the wrong library. This is part of the chaos, a librarian was probably rushed and shelved the downtown book locally.
While looking for the missing book, I saw "The Language Police" by Diane Ravitch. It's about censorship and bowdlerization in the schools. The jacket says it's "a case of the bland leading the bland." I'll have to get this book when I finish those I am currently reading.
I normally wouldn't be getting a haircut this week and I would normally have gotten it earlier, but the barber isn't at my beck and call. Being later allowed me time to go to the library. Because I went to the barber after leaving the coffee shop and library, I returned home on the other side of the street.
I've been thinking of a photo essay on "The ugly side of Duluth", all the streets and sidewalk needing maintenance or repair, the overgrown trees and shrubs blocking the sidewalk, and so on. As I walked by a small green area of UMD, I noticed two pop cans on an otherwise neatly kept area. It was an interesting juxtaposition with all the mushrooms growing because of the recent rains.
Just as I put my camera back in my case, I heard a car honk. I looked up and saw a car braking for a deer running across the road. It was gone in the brush on the other side of the street before I could get my camera out.
As I continued I saw a deer peeping over a hedge in a yard. I got out my camera and managed one picture before it bounded around the house. Then I saw another deer on the other side of the yard. I kept taking pictures as fast as I could and got one very clear one with the deer trotting towards the back yard. As I was trying for a few more, I noticed that the camera would no longer zoom. I had pushed the off button instead of the shutter. More chaos.
Thatcher's law has been proved again: "The unexpected happens; you had better prepare for it."
See also my two identically titled articles, One thing leads to another (Aug. 4, 2005) and One thing leads to another (Nov. 10, 2005)
Today was another ordinary day that was extraordinary. It was ordinary in that I walked to a coffee shop, went to the library, and got a haircut. Well, not quite, I wouldn't ordinarily do the last two this week.
I went to the library to check for a missing book. I had returned a downtown book to the branch library, but the records showed I didn't return it. I was sure I had and couldn't find it in the house or either of our vehicles. Yesterday I double checked the downtown library. Today I checked the branch library, and, lucky me and lucky library, it was shelved in proper Dewey order in the wrong library. This is part of the chaos, a librarian was probably rushed and shelved the downtown book locally.
While looking for the missing book, I saw "The Language Police" by Diane Ravitch. It's about censorship and bowdlerization in the schools. The jacket says it's "a case of the bland leading the bland." I'll have to get this book when I finish those I am currently reading.
I normally wouldn't be getting a haircut this week and I would normally have gotten it earlier, but the barber isn't at my beck and call. Being later allowed me time to go to the library. Because I went to the barber after leaving the coffee shop and library, I returned home on the other side of the street.
I've been thinking of a photo essay on "The ugly side of Duluth", all the streets and sidewalk needing maintenance or repair, the overgrown trees and shrubs blocking the sidewalk, and so on. As I walked by a small green area of UMD, I noticed two pop cans on an otherwise neatly kept area. It was an interesting juxtaposition with all the mushrooms growing because of the recent rains.
Just as I put my camera back in my case, I heard a car honk. I looked up and saw a car braking for a deer running across the road. It was gone in the brush on the other side of the street before I could get my camera out.
As I continued I saw a deer peeping over a hedge in a yard. I got out my camera and managed one picture before it bounded around the house. Then I saw another deer on the other side of the yard. I kept taking pictures as fast as I could and got one very clear one with the deer trotting towards the back yard. As I was trying for a few more, I noticed that the camera would no longer zoom. I had pushed the off button instead of the shutter. More chaos.
Thatcher's law has been proved again: "The unexpected happens; you had better prepare for it."
See also my two identically titled articles, One thing leads to another (Aug. 4, 2005) and One thing leads to another (Nov. 10, 2005)
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Flawed science understanding
A letter writer in today's Star Tribune claims that the global warming predictions are based on the same science that can be "incapable of accurately predicting local conditions just hours into the future." The Strib titled his letter "Global warming, Flawed science".
I think his understanding of science is what is flawed. First, what is accuracy in weather forecasting? Does he want the exact temperature to the nearest degree and the exact amount of precipitation to the tenth of an inch? Even if he wants the temperature within five degrees and definite precipitation if predicted, it might not happen. Weather does not behave with such precision; there are just too many unknown quantities. We are dealing with chaos.
Consider dust devils. Walking down the street, one may see a small whirlwind of snow or dust, no more than a foot in diameter and three feet high, that comes and goes in an instant. What happens if the sun shines through a hole in the clouds on a large parking lot? Isn't there going to be a big temperature difference between the parking lot and a park or lake nearby? Weather is filled with these little anomalies that can affect local weather.
However, if one looks at weather prediction as giving the general trend for a given area, then I think most forecasters do a darn good job. Rarely do we have a forecast of a clear, sunny day and get a rainstorm. On the other hand, we may get a forecast of precipitation and get none, the weather having been blown in a different direction by some of the chaos that can't be measured.
In other words, weather forecasters and climatologists can make reasonable predictions about trends, but they cannot give precision for a very specific locale or time. For example, in global warming, Europe may get colder. Why? If melting Greenland glaciers dump enough fresh water into the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream could be disrupted by either the decreased salinity or the cooler water. If the Gulf Stream is disrupted, Europe will get less warm air.
I think his understanding of science is what is flawed. First, what is accuracy in weather forecasting? Does he want the exact temperature to the nearest degree and the exact amount of precipitation to the tenth of an inch? Even if he wants the temperature within five degrees and definite precipitation if predicted, it might not happen. Weather does not behave with such precision; there are just too many unknown quantities. We are dealing with chaos.
Consider dust devils. Walking down the street, one may see a small whirlwind of snow or dust, no more than a foot in diameter and three feet high, that comes and goes in an instant. What happens if the sun shines through a hole in the clouds on a large parking lot? Isn't there going to be a big temperature difference between the parking lot and a park or lake nearby? Weather is filled with these little anomalies that can affect local weather.
However, if one looks at weather prediction as giving the general trend for a given area, then I think most forecasters do a darn good job. Rarely do we have a forecast of a clear, sunny day and get a rainstorm. On the other hand, we may get a forecast of precipitation and get none, the weather having been blown in a different direction by some of the chaos that can't be measured.
In other words, weather forecasters and climatologists can make reasonable predictions about trends, but they cannot give precision for a very specific locale or time. For example, in global warming, Europe may get colder. Why? If melting Greenland glaciers dump enough fresh water into the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream could be disrupted by either the decreased salinity or the cooler water. If the Gulf Stream is disrupted, Europe will get less warm air.
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