In 1948, the headlines were “Dewey Wins”. However, the result was that Truman won.
See “Dewey Defeats Truman”, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman.
See”A ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Lesson for the Digital Age”, Jim Gutenberg, New York Times, 2016-11-09, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/business/media/media-trump-clinton.html;
“Case Study 2: The 1948 Presidential Election”, https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html
However, what really counted was how polls were taken, often by telephone. In 1948, many who leaned towards Truman did not have telephones and weren’t called. See “Dewy Defeats Truman, Joe Walter, “The True Facts, 2019-05-31, http://www.thetruefacts.com/dewey-defeats-truman/
So, were the predictions off because too many people don’t answer their cell phones if they don’t recognize the number? I know that I do.
Another thought, maybe many of Trump’s supporters who did answer their phones didn’t admit that they were Trump supporters.
Showing posts with label telephone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label telephone. Show all posts
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Summer Idyll or Sweat Farm
Here I sit in the screen “house” about noon at our cabin after hauling some chips and cut brush. The sky is blue, the trees are green, the wind is blowing through the trees, and birds are chirping. Do I even want to move?
The weather forecast was for 30% chance of thunderstorms, but I am going by my own weather “advisory”. If bad weather is predicted, there is often a bigger chance that the weather will be just fine. This is one of those “just fine” days.
We are here on a too infrequent four-day weekend. Even though it is the weekend of the Fourth of July, there are surprisingly few neighbors around. The only thing we heard from neighbors who often shoot off fireworks was some late evening hooting. Maybe they were watching a soccer match on TV. Somebody was shooting yesterday in the woods, hopefully not on our land. The only person who I think might have had access to that area is already gone.
“Don’t make it a sweat farm” was from Bruce Berggren, a DNR forester, who gave us a stewardship plan in the early Nineties. I don’t remember if we had more than a dome tent, a picnic table, and a tarp then. We weren’t doing more than cutting brush to expand our “living area” and to make room for planting trees.
Now we have a “yard” that is three times as big as our yard in Duluth and three loops of trails with some side paths. But, because we found much to occupy ourselves in Duluth, two of the loops and the side paths have grown over. On the other hand, the “yard” seems to be getting bigger.
Our first major “expansion” was to put cots in our dome tent. Oh! We had so much more room. We could put our packs and coolers under the cots.
Our first building was an 8x8 shed that I built probably within our second year here. We moved our cots into it. Oh! We had so much room. We could even dress standing up. We could even put a propane heater in it and stay overnight in the winter. With each stay, it seemed more and more space was taken up with tools.
A couple years later, I built a cabin with some assistance from others. We decided that a nominal 12x16 should be sufficient for our needs until we built a house here. When I first put in a cot, Oh! We had so much room. Over the years, we have added more and more. Before the second winter we had a wood stove. We added a foldout couch and a card table. We used an Ikea counter for our “kitchen” counter. I had used it for my darkroom when we lived in Sweden. I cut a hole in it for a sink which drains into a bucket on the floor. We added a microwave and a mini-refrigerator. I forgot to mention that we had electricity and telephone before I put the wallboard up. We stuck a portable toilet in one corner.
At some point, I built an outhouse. We can even use it in the winter in “comfort” with a small heater screwed onto a 20-lb propane tank. Last year I installed a solar shed light.
The same year we moved to Duluth we had a well dug. It’s only twenty feet deep, but the water was so nice to have. Then came the drought years and we were back to hauling water.
We built an 8x12 sauna with the help of some friends. A battery and a solar panel provide lighting.
Other buildings include a ramshackle woodshed built out of scrap lumber and a metal shed where we store our power equipment. I wish I hadn’t been stingy on the cost. I’m constantly bumping my head on the low ceiling.
A recent plus is that we have better internet service. From 25Kbps (that’s right, K not M) with a landline to sometimes 10Mbps with cellular. As this is off my cellphone contract with Consumer Cellular, my guess is that I’m paying about a third for phone and internet at the cabin than I was for the landline.
One big project I would like to do is get rid of all the “Toimi sand”. Toimi is the neighboring township and the sand grains are from fist-size to boulders to climb onto. This area is also called Kivi Country, kivi being Finnish for stone. I would really like to get rid of many of them because those that stick up only an inch or two are lawnmower busters. Even bigger ones make it hard to pull a cart over.
Two years ago I really hurt one shoulder using a ten-pound hammer on a 4x3x2 boulder to no avail other than chips flying all over. I wonder if a small electric jackhammer would work. Probably I couldn’t take the strain.
Well, I better wrap this up. It looks like 30% chance of thunderstorms getting closer. There are more clouds, some even dark, in the sky and the wind is getting stronger. I hope I can cut the grass on at least one short path. Oh well, if the rain comes, I still have many books to read and last week’s Reader Weekly.
Mel did get more than one path cut, edited this, and sent it. The rain still hadn’t come.
This was also published in the 2014-07-10 issue of the Reader Weekly at http://duluthreader.com/articles/2014/07/10/3701_summer_idyll_or_sweat_farm.
The weather forecast was for 30% chance of thunderstorms, but I am going by my own weather “advisory”. If bad weather is predicted, there is often a bigger chance that the weather will be just fine. This is one of those “just fine” days.
We are here on a too infrequent four-day weekend. Even though it is the weekend of the Fourth of July, there are surprisingly few neighbors around. The only thing we heard from neighbors who often shoot off fireworks was some late evening hooting. Maybe they were watching a soccer match on TV. Somebody was shooting yesterday in the woods, hopefully not on our land. The only person who I think might have had access to that area is already gone.
“Don’t make it a sweat farm” was from Bruce Berggren, a DNR forester, who gave us a stewardship plan in the early Nineties. I don’t remember if we had more than a dome tent, a picnic table, and a tarp then. We weren’t doing more than cutting brush to expand our “living area” and to make room for planting trees.
Now we have a “yard” that is three times as big as our yard in Duluth and three loops of trails with some side paths. But, because we found much to occupy ourselves in Duluth, two of the loops and the side paths have grown over. On the other hand, the “yard” seems to be getting bigger.
Our first major “expansion” was to put cots in our dome tent. Oh! We had so much more room. We could put our packs and coolers under the cots.
Our first building was an 8x8 shed that I built probably within our second year here. We moved our cots into it. Oh! We had so much room. We could even dress standing up. We could even put a propane heater in it and stay overnight in the winter. With each stay, it seemed more and more space was taken up with tools.
A couple years later, I built a cabin with some assistance from others. We decided that a nominal 12x16 should be sufficient for our needs until we built a house here. When I first put in a cot, Oh! We had so much room. Over the years, we have added more and more. Before the second winter we had a wood stove. We added a foldout couch and a card table. We used an Ikea counter for our “kitchen” counter. I had used it for my darkroom when we lived in Sweden. I cut a hole in it for a sink which drains into a bucket on the floor. We added a microwave and a mini-refrigerator. I forgot to mention that we had electricity and telephone before I put the wallboard up. We stuck a portable toilet in one corner.
At some point, I built an outhouse. We can even use it in the winter in “comfort” with a small heater screwed onto a 20-lb propane tank. Last year I installed a solar shed light.
The same year we moved to Duluth we had a well dug. It’s only twenty feet deep, but the water was so nice to have. Then came the drought years and we were back to hauling water.
We built an 8x12 sauna with the help of some friends. A battery and a solar panel provide lighting.
Other buildings include a ramshackle woodshed built out of scrap lumber and a metal shed where we store our power equipment. I wish I hadn’t been stingy on the cost. I’m constantly bumping my head on the low ceiling.
A recent plus is that we have better internet service. From 25Kbps (that’s right, K not M) with a landline to sometimes 10Mbps with cellular. As this is off my cellphone contract with Consumer Cellular, my guess is that I’m paying about a third for phone and internet at the cabin than I was for the landline.
One big project I would like to do is get rid of all the “Toimi sand”. Toimi is the neighboring township and the sand grains are from fist-size to boulders to climb onto. This area is also called Kivi Country, kivi being Finnish for stone. I would really like to get rid of many of them because those that stick up only an inch or two are lawnmower busters. Even bigger ones make it hard to pull a cart over.
Two years ago I really hurt one shoulder using a ten-pound hammer on a 4x3x2 boulder to no avail other than chips flying all over. I wonder if a small electric jackhammer would work. Probably I couldn’t take the strain.
Well, I better wrap this up. It looks like 30% chance of thunderstorms getting closer. There are more clouds, some even dark, in the sky and the wind is getting stronger. I hope I can cut the grass on at least one short path. Oh well, if the rain comes, I still have many books to read and last week’s Reader Weekly.
Mel did get more than one path cut, edited this, and sent it. The rain still hadn’t come.
This was also published in the 2014-07-10 issue of the Reader Weekly at http://duluthreader.com/articles/2014/07/10/3701_summer_idyll_or_sweat_farm.
Monday, December 09, 2013
Don't touch that phone!
Those of us who grew up on radio remember the admonition "Don't touch that dial!" It was said to keep you listening for the next program.
Now "Don't touch that phone" is an admonition to not answer a robo-call or other unsolicited message. We had started to not answer the phone between 5 and 7 in the evening. We had learned that almost all the calls were unwanted calls. Now we don't answer the phone at all. These calls come at almost all hours of the day. I just had one at 9:30 in the morning!
We wait for the caller to leave a message; if the caller is legitimate, we pick up the phone and apologize for not answering immediately. Almost all these callers are understanding as they suffer the same at home.
Now "Don't touch that phone" is an admonition to not answer a robo-call or other unsolicited message. We had started to not answer the phone between 5 and 7 in the evening. We had learned that almost all the calls were unwanted calls. Now we don't answer the phone at all. These calls come at almost all hours of the day. I just had one at 9:30 in the morning!
We wait for the caller to leave a message; if the caller is legitimate, we pick up the phone and apologize for not answering immediately. Almost all these callers are understanding as they suffer the same at home.
Monday, August 12, 2013
Unlimited has its limits
I was considering switching from CenturyLink for phone and internet to Enventis, but the cost would be about the same or maybe even slightly higher; Enventis might not even be available in Duluth.
I couldn't help but smile at
At least I didn't see "The possibilities are limitless!" See "The endless use of 'infinite'" and "Great speech but erroneous mathematics".
I couldn't help but smile at
Unlimited Long DistanceThe asterix points to a paragraph that states "Usage over 5,000 minutes [per month] will be billed at 5¢ per minute" or that Enventis can cancel the service.
• $15.00/mo*
At least I didn't see "The possibilities are limitless!" See "The endless use of 'infinite'" and "Great speech but erroneous mathematics".
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Surveillance Allowed Days
In its first 24-hours, "No Surveillance Allowed Days" had only seven page views, fewer than most of my other blog entries. I guess it is not a very popular idea. I'll consider keeping to some of its tenets on No Surveillance Allowed Days, but I won't be rigid about it. Sort of like paying cash for most of what I buy, I'll pay with credit or debit card when it is more convenient.
I should have known better. "No Surveillance Allowed Days" had as much chance of success as my attempt to get 90% voter turnout or better at every election.
I should have known better. "No Surveillance Allowed Days" had as much chance of success as my attempt to get 90% voter turnout or better at every election.
Monday, July 15, 2013
No Surveillance Allowed Days
This entry was inspired by "FAQ: What You Need to Know About the NSA's Surveillance Programs" by Pro Publica, reprinted in the Reader Weekly of Duluth on 2013-07-11. You can find a long list of similar stories by Pro Publica with the search terms "FAQ: What You Need to Know About the NSA's Surveillance Programs" "Pro Publica".
If you think government has overstepped its bounds on surveillance, you can protest in a "simple" way: don't use a phone, the Internet, or a debit or credit card each No Surveillance Allowed Day (NSAD). If the usage of these drops significantly every Wednesday, the large corporations such as Google, Yahoo, Verizon, AT&T, Visa, and many others will certainly notice. I am sure you have noticed that large corporations have more clout with Congress and the Administration than we ordinary citizens. No Surveillance Allowed Days could manipulate the large corporations to influence the government not just for their benefit but ours!
This won't be "simple" because many of us need to use the telephone and the Internet for work and for other matters that can't wait until another day. But you might find some things among the following ideas that you can do to make a small contribution to make the large corporations notice.
If you live outside the United States, especially in a country with heavy-handed censorship, you can stage your own small non-violent resistance with little fear of government retaliation.
On No Surveillance Allowed Days, think twice about any phone calls you might make, especially cell phone. Can the call wait until tomorrow? Does the call even need to be made?
On NSADs, avoid using the Internet. Can you look up that burning question with Google on Thursday instead? Can you make that online payment that is due on Wednesday a day early? If you read newspapers online, can you buy a paper copy on Wednesdays instead? If you don't buy a paper copy, you you could catch up online on Thursday. If you must use the Internet, avoid clicking on any ads and avoid any sites that give you a short advertising video before showing you what you clicked for.
Oh gosh! Our Social Security checks are deposited on the fourth Wednesday. I guess we don't need to check online that they are in our accounts that day. We can assume that they are there. Besides, if we're avoiding the Internet, we won't be making any online payments until Thursday.
Finally, pay cash on NSADs instead of using a debit or credit card. Or can you wait until Thursday to make that big purchase with one of your cards?
If we spread the word that we are doing these things in protest of the National Security Agency's wide-ranging snooping on our lives, we might get the attention of the large corporations who control our phones, our Internet use, and many of our purchases and payments. If they are being hit in the pocket book, even one day a week, they might make a big squawk that will be heard in Washington.
No matter how much you plan to participate, would you at least spread the word about No Surveillance Days? If you do so, please pass on the link to this entry (http://magree.blogspot.com/2013/07/no-surveillance-allowed-days.html). That will give me some idea of how well this idea is catching on. I'll periodically post how many views have been made of this entry.
Thanks, and may you sleep well, knowing you have done your part to stop excessive government snooping.
If you think government has overstepped its bounds on surveillance, you can protest in a "simple" way: don't use a phone, the Internet, or a debit or credit card each No Surveillance Allowed Day (NSAD). If the usage of these drops significantly every Wednesday, the large corporations such as Google, Yahoo, Verizon, AT&T, Visa, and many others will certainly notice. I am sure you have noticed that large corporations have more clout with Congress and the Administration than we ordinary citizens. No Surveillance Allowed Days could manipulate the large corporations to influence the government not just for their benefit but ours!
This won't be "simple" because many of us need to use the telephone and the Internet for work and for other matters that can't wait until another day. But you might find some things among the following ideas that you can do to make a small contribution to make the large corporations notice.
If you live outside the United States, especially in a country with heavy-handed censorship, you can stage your own small non-violent resistance with little fear of government retaliation.
On No Surveillance Allowed Days, think twice about any phone calls you might make, especially cell phone. Can the call wait until tomorrow? Does the call even need to be made?
On NSADs, avoid using the Internet. Can you look up that burning question with Google on Thursday instead? Can you make that online payment that is due on Wednesday a day early? If you read newspapers online, can you buy a paper copy on Wednesdays instead? If you don't buy a paper copy, you you could catch up online on Thursday. If you must use the Internet, avoid clicking on any ads and avoid any sites that give you a short advertising video before showing you what you clicked for.
Oh gosh! Our Social Security checks are deposited on the fourth Wednesday. I guess we don't need to check online that they are in our accounts that day. We can assume that they are there. Besides, if we're avoiding the Internet, we won't be making any online payments until Thursday.
Finally, pay cash on NSADs instead of using a debit or credit card. Or can you wait until Thursday to make that big purchase with one of your cards?
If we spread the word that we are doing these things in protest of the National Security Agency's wide-ranging snooping on our lives, we might get the attention of the large corporations who control our phones, our Internet use, and many of our purchases and payments. If they are being hit in the pocket book, even one day a week, they might make a big squawk that will be heard in Washington.
No matter how much you plan to participate, would you at least spread the word about No Surveillance Days? If you do so, please pass on the link to this entry (http://magree.blogspot.com/2013/07/no-surveillance-allowed-days.html). That will give me some idea of how well this idea is catching on. I'll periodically post how many views have been made of this entry.
Thanks, and may you sleep well, knowing you have done your part to stop excessive government snooping.
Monday, May 27, 2013
Offers you can refuse
As I opened my Frontier statement for our cabin phone, I was shown an ad for High-Speed Internet for "$19.99 No Contract, 3-year price guarantee". The tiny, grey, fuzzy print is "per month with qualifying phone service". I have yet to find "qualifying phone service" explained in detail.
Fine print on another page states "Limited time offer to new or current Frontier customers who subscribe to a qualifying package of Frontier local service with features, long distance and new High-Speed Internet with speeds up to 6Mbps."
Ah! When I clicked on "bundles" then I got a list of packages that include high-speed internet. The minimum bundle is "Digital Phone Essentials" which includes 30 minutes of long-distance per month, caller iD, and call waiting; all features we do not have and do not need. The price is $47.98; taxes are not mentioned. Our basic dial-up service is $18.00 including extended area service* and $16 taxes and other charges. So, we would be paying at least $64/month for internet and phone we use only one or two nights a week.
I think I'll stick with the poky 25kbps dial-up.
But I may have no choice. Last time I knew, the faster phone cable hadn't been laid as far as our cabin. Even faster Frontier service is being provided in the area with fiber-optic cable, but it ends about 1-1/2 miles from our cabin. I assume any extension of that cable will continue on the main paved road and not come down our gravel road.
* Surprisingly, we can make a local call to our house in Duluth that is 46 miles away, but we can't make a call to Two Harbors about 35 miles away.
Fine print on another page states "Limited time offer to new or current Frontier customers who subscribe to a qualifying package of Frontier local service with features, long distance and new High-Speed Internet with speeds up to 6Mbps."
Ah! When I clicked on "bundles" then I got a list of packages that include high-speed internet. The minimum bundle is "Digital Phone Essentials" which includes 30 minutes of long-distance per month, caller iD, and call waiting; all features we do not have and do not need. The price is $47.98; taxes are not mentioned. Our basic dial-up service is $18.00 including extended area service* and $16 taxes and other charges. So, we would be paying at least $64/month for internet and phone we use only one or two nights a week.
I think I'll stick with the poky 25kbps dial-up.
But I may have no choice. Last time I knew, the faster phone cable hadn't been laid as far as our cabin. Even faster Frontier service is being provided in the area with fiber-optic cable, but it ends about 1-1/2 miles from our cabin. I assume any extension of that cable will continue on the main paved road and not come down our gravel road.
* Surprisingly, we can make a local call to our house in Duluth that is 46 miles away, but we can't make a call to Two Harbors about 35 miles away.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Why I don't believe polls
I've long been suspicious of polls, especially political polls. I also dislike polls because they turn elections into horse races rather than thoughtful consideration of candidates and because they reinforce the myth of "the two-party system".
The first question is who is asking what questions of who.
Who are the pollsters? Are they completely neutral or are they hired by a party or a candidate?
What are the questions and what order were they made? Were the questions framed to get a desired response? Were questions asked in an order to set up the responder for a desired answer?
Who responded to the poll? Was it only people who happened to be at home? Was it only people who always answer the phone and politely enter into a dialog? How many people screen their calls and won't respond to pollsters or other solicitation calls? How many people who did answer hung up right away? What about people who only have cell phones? Even if cell phones are called by pollsters, do the phone owners screen their calls and don't respond to unknown callers?
For some of these difficulties facing pollsters, see "Pollsters struggle to find the right sample of voters", John Harwood, Star Tribune, 2012-08-06.
Polls also can be very far off. One iconic picture is Harry Truman holding up a newspaper in November 1948, "Dewey Wins". Harry Truman didn't even stay up for the results, but the polls were way off. It was one of the first telephone polls, but nobody seemed to think that many Democratic voters didn't have telephones.
More recently, the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial polls predicted Hubert Humphrey III (DFL), Norm Coleman (Rep), and Jesse Ventura (Reform Party) in that order. The result was just the opposite with Ventura winning with 36.99 percent of the votes. The turnout was 60 percent, and so Ventura came in second to none of the above. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_gubernatorial_election,_1998.
I wonder if anyone bothered taking a poll of the 40 percent who didn't show up. What fraction were Democrats who didn't feel Humphrey would do "enough", what fraction were ex-Republicans who didn't like the direction the party was taking even then, and what fraction were people who just didn't give a damn about getting good governance?
The first question is who is asking what questions of who.
Who are the pollsters? Are they completely neutral or are they hired by a party or a candidate?
What are the questions and what order were they made? Were the questions framed to get a desired response? Were questions asked in an order to set up the responder for a desired answer?
Who responded to the poll? Was it only people who happened to be at home? Was it only people who always answer the phone and politely enter into a dialog? How many people screen their calls and won't respond to pollsters or other solicitation calls? How many people who did answer hung up right away? What about people who only have cell phones? Even if cell phones are called by pollsters, do the phone owners screen their calls and don't respond to unknown callers?
For some of these difficulties facing pollsters, see "Pollsters struggle to find the right sample of voters", John Harwood, Star Tribune, 2012-08-06.
Polls also can be very far off. One iconic picture is Harry Truman holding up a newspaper in November 1948, "Dewey Wins". Harry Truman didn't even stay up for the results, but the polls were way off. It was one of the first telephone polls, but nobody seemed to think that many Democratic voters didn't have telephones.
More recently, the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial polls predicted Hubert Humphrey III (DFL), Norm Coleman (Rep), and Jesse Ventura (Reform Party) in that order. The result was just the opposite with Ventura winning with 36.99 percent of the votes. The turnout was 60 percent, and so Ventura came in second to none of the above. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_gubernatorial_election,_1998.
I wonder if anyone bothered taking a poll of the 40 percent who didn't show up. What fraction were Democrats who didn't feel Humphrey would do "enough", what fraction were ex-Republicans who didn't like the direction the party was taking even then, and what fraction were people who just didn't give a damn about getting good governance?
Saturday, August 29, 2009
A cool, new telephone service - Google Voice
Google has started a free, new service that allows you to route incoming calls to one or more of your phones, home, cell, or work. This is great if you have friends, relatives, or customers who are trying to track you down.
For example, my wife's sisters often will call us at home when we are at the cabin, or vice versa, but not both. However, if they call our Google Voice number, both phones might ring and we would answer the one we were at.
We also get caller ID if the caller is on our Google Voice contact list. We also get call blocking in that we can choose to accept or not accept a call.
My daughter thought this would be great for her use because she switches among a company phone, her home office phone, and her cell phone. By letting customers and employees know her Google Voice number, they would be able to reach her with a single call.
For more information see https://services.google.com/fb/forms/googlevoiceinvite/. There is a button for more information on Google Voice at the bottom of the invitation page.
Google Voice also provides within the U.S. and Canada free long-distance. Outside this area they provide very low cost service. For example, most of Europe is two cents per minute, and Japan is three cents per minute. For some countries, it can cost more to call a cell phone. For a complete list of rates, see http://www.google.com/support/voice/bin/answer.py?answer=141925
For long distance, you can either do it from one of your registered phones or online. If you place the call from one of your registered phones, you enter your four-digit PIN, select place a call from the voice menu, and then dial the number. This is not much different from using a call service like CogniDial.
If you do it online, you can call or send SMS from your contact list, or you can enter any number in a sidebar. I think then your phone will ring for the call. Skype has an advantage here in that you can use your computer for the call without extra equipment.
Speaking of Skype, it already provides free world-wide video calls; the drawback is that both parties must have a Skype account. Oh, yes, both parties must also have a web-cam for a video call.
The cost and ease of world-wide communications has been improving dramatically and will probably improve even faster over the next decade. I remember when it as a long-distance call for a few miles away, from a couple of miles to about 25 miles, depending on where you lived in a calling area. To make a long-distance call you had to go through an operator. In some countries, you had to request your call in advance and be ready hours later for the call to be completed.
First came direct-dial calls all across a country, then direct-dial across national borders, and then across oceans. It was a big thing when long-distance was a dollar-a-minute anywhere in the U.S., and then it dropped to twenty-five cents a minute. I don't know what local telephone companies charge now. I do know you can get single-charge long-distance with some providers, either for a set number of minutes per month or unlimited number of minutes.
I wouldn't be surprised if in ten years one could call anywhere in the world for free, the only cost being a fixed cost for telephone or internet access.
For example, my wife's sisters often will call us at home when we are at the cabin, or vice versa, but not both. However, if they call our Google Voice number, both phones might ring and we would answer the one we were at.
We also get caller ID if the caller is on our Google Voice contact list. We also get call blocking in that we can choose to accept or not accept a call.
My daughter thought this would be great for her use because she switches among a company phone, her home office phone, and her cell phone. By letting customers and employees know her Google Voice number, they would be able to reach her with a single call.
For more information see https://services.google.com/fb/forms/googlevoiceinvite/. There is a button for more information on Google Voice at the bottom of the invitation page.
Google Voice also provides within the U.S. and Canada free long-distance. Outside this area they provide very low cost service. For example, most of Europe is two cents per minute, and Japan is three cents per minute. For some countries, it can cost more to call a cell phone. For a complete list of rates, see http://www.google.com/support/voice/bin/answer.py?answer=141925
For long distance, you can either do it from one of your registered phones or online. If you place the call from one of your registered phones, you enter your four-digit PIN, select place a call from the voice menu, and then dial the number. This is not much different from using a call service like CogniDial.
If you do it online, you can call or send SMS from your contact list, or you can enter any number in a sidebar. I think then your phone will ring for the call. Skype has an advantage here in that you can use your computer for the call without extra equipment.
Speaking of Skype, it already provides free world-wide video calls; the drawback is that both parties must have a Skype account. Oh, yes, both parties must also have a web-cam for a video call.
The cost and ease of world-wide communications has been improving dramatically and will probably improve even faster over the next decade. I remember when it as a long-distance call for a few miles away, from a couple of miles to about 25 miles, depending on where you lived in a calling area. To make a long-distance call you had to go through an operator. In some countries, you had to request your call in advance and be ready hours later for the call to be completed.
First came direct-dial calls all across a country, then direct-dial across national borders, and then across oceans. It was a big thing when long-distance was a dollar-a-minute anywhere in the U.S., and then it dropped to twenty-five cents a minute. I don't know what local telephone companies charge now. I do know you can get single-charge long-distance with some providers, either for a set number of minutes per month or unlimited number of minutes.
I wouldn't be surprised if in ten years one could call anywhere in the world for free, the only cost being a fixed cost for telephone or internet access.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Can you believe the polls anymore?
In the 1948 presidential election, many polls predicted that Thomas Dewey would beat Harry Truman. They were so wrong. The polls were made by telephone, but many Democratic voters had no telephone. So, they were not counted.
Now more people have telephones; and polls, except exit polls, are conducted by telephone. But two things make them inaccurate. Many polls are conducted by robo-dialer and a large number of people hang up when there is silence on the other end. Polls are conducted to numbers that are in some database, but many of those database are based on listed numbers. People with unlisted numbers might not be called. Cell phone numbers generally do not appear in listings. Many young people have cell phones only. So many young people will never be called by polls.
Barack Obama is attracting and energizing many young people. Will a representative number of his supporters be called? Some polls show him getting fewer votes than John McCain. Will John McCain be the 2008 version of 1948's Thomas Dewey?
Now more people have telephones; and polls, except exit polls, are conducted by telephone. But two things make them inaccurate. Many polls are conducted by robo-dialer and a large number of people hang up when there is silence on the other end. Polls are conducted to numbers that are in some database, but many of those database are based on listed numbers. People with unlisted numbers might not be called. Cell phone numbers generally do not appear in listings. Many young people have cell phones only. So many young people will never be called by polls.
Barack Obama is attracting and energizing many young people. Will a representative number of his supporters be called? Some polls show him getting fewer votes than John McCain. Will John McCain be the 2008 version of 1948's Thomas Dewey?
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