First, a little history. In 1914 the Archduke Frantz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated in Sarajevo, Serbia. The Austrian government gave an ultimatum to Serbia, of which Serbia agreed to most terms except allowing Austrian police to participate in the investigation of the assassination. Rather than negotiate, Austria attacked Serbia. The consequences were as bad as all the participants believed they would be and worse. We are still living with those consequences nearly a century later.
Now many demands are being made of Iran concerning its nuclear ambitions. Many in the U.S. and Israel are ready to go to war against Iran if those demands aren't met. Have these hawks considered ALL the possible effects of such a war?
Let's ask some "trivial" questions first.
Many of these hawks want low taxes. If taxes are low and kept low, where is the money to come from to wage a new war?
Many of these hawks want low oil prices. If Iran is attacked, what will happen to oil prices?
Many of these hawks want to protect the unborn. If Iran is attacked, how many unborn children will die? Do you really think only soldiers will die in any modern war?
Now let's look at some more global issues.
If Saudi Arabia feels threatened by Iranian nuclear ambitions, shouldn't Saudi Arabia be the country to act? After all, the U.S. has sold them many, many advanced military aircraft. Shouldn't Saudi pilots be able to operate these aircraft efficiently and effectively? If not, why sell the aircraft to Saudi Arabia in the first place?
If the U.S. attacks Iran, this will be the third Muslim country the U.S. has invaded in a generation. What will be the reaction be of many Muslims throughout the world? Will there be a rush of Mujahideen to Iran? What side will various Muslim governments take?
Will a U.S. attack on Iran bring about the fall of many pro-U.S. Muslim governments. If so, which side will the new governments take? If the government of an oil-producing nation falls, will the new government continue or cease oil deliveries to the U.S. or to European countries?
What will the reaction of Pakistan be to an attack on Iran? Will the current generals do nothing? Will they be replaced in a coup by more hawkish officers? Officers who will be quite willing to aim nuclear weapons at U.S. forces or even U.S. territory?
There are more Muslims living in India than in Pakistan. Would Indian Muslims stage a coup and join in resisting a U.S. attack on Iran? India also has nuclear weapons.
What side will Russia and China take?
If Iran is attacked, what will North Korea's reaction be? It has been unpredictable and is not known for acting in its long-term interests.
I think it is safe to say that if the U.S. (or Israel) attacks Iran, many people will die who have nothing to do with the current Iranian government or its nuclear programs. Also, I think it is safe to say that the negative repercussions of an attack will last for at least two generations and maybe even a century.
Meanwhile, for over two generations the U.S. has called the largest offensive military force in the world "defense". At the same time. those who have been the biggest proponents of the military have done their best to sabotage a true defense - energy independence. They have opposed many efforts for alternative fuels and for greater energy efficiency.
"When will they ever learn?" "The answer is blowin' in the wind." They didn't.
