The President claims the stimulus created x jobs. Republicans claim tax cuts will create y jobs. Developers claim waiving the zoning rules for their mega-projects will create z jobs.
They all miss the point. Many jobs are gone forever because of productivity gains, automation, and changing product and service mix. A stimulus is not going to reverse productivity gains. Tax cuts may only decrease jobs because of investment in productivity. Mega-projects may create jobs for a year or two, but then there will have to be another controversial mega-project to hire those laid off after the previous mega-project.
If you want to create jobs in the short term, here's what you'll have to do. And few will be happy about it.
Take out all self-service machines. More bank teller jobs will be needed without ATMs. More pump-jockey jobs will be needed without self-serve pumps. More elevator operators will be needed without automatic elevators. Take out all drink and food dispensing machines. Replace them with staffed snack bars. Cut off direct dial calls. Operators will be needed to place calls outside the immediate area. Ban email and online payment. Mail carriers have delivered letters, bills, and payments successfully for decades.
We will all lose a lot of convenience and pay more for goods and services. But, what the hey! We won't have to pay the taxes for unemployment benefits.
But if we keep the taxes the same, maybe we can use the savings to create even more jobs. Let's run all bus routes ten minutes apart from five in the morning until one the next morning, seven days a week. That will save us the costs of a car. Let's give 24-hour service on pothole repair. That should also save us a lot on auto repair. Let's increase traffic enforcement. The increase in enforcement will save us on insurance, generate some funds to pay for the enforcement, and save on health costs with reduced road rage.
I think only two systemic changes are going to bring about real job growth – free quality health care and free quality education from pre-school to university.
Our health care expectations give a double whammy to job creation. First, employees expect health care insurance and employers need to provide health care insurance to attract employees. This increased cost reduces employers willingness to hire. Second, people who want to quit their jobs and start a new business are reluctant to do so because they will lose their health care insurance. It would be interesting to see what percentage of entrepreneurs have a spouse with a job with health care insurance. And if an entrepreneur needs employees…
Many jobs are going begging because there are not enough qualified people to fill them. These jobs often require education well beyond high school. But the rising costs of college education discourage many from even considering college. Ironically, those who think tax cuts will create jobs don't consider that tax cuts reduce the future number of job creators.
A quality education from pre-school through university can produce creative people who will create a dynamic economy in the future. Creative people are not created through standardized tests; they are created by active stimulation of their imaginations. This means they have to have teachers who can personally interact frequently with each student; they have to access to books, labs, and workshops to gain and try a wide variety of ideas. Those who have difficulties may need social workers who have the time and resources to understand and ameliorate those difficulties. Laying off teachers and others is only eating our seed corn.
Until we have a majority of politicians who fully understand that lack of these two basic needs is standing in the way of job creation, we are going to have one half-baked solution after another offered up, sometimes from the so-called liberals and sometimes from the so-called conservatives.
Until we can break out of the habit of having to vote for one or the other "major" party, we are going to be stuck with polarized politics. We need some leaders with the courage to take us in a new direction. We aren't going to get those leaders until they feel they have a good chance of being elected under a new banner.
