… and I don't really have any well-based predictions of my own.
Consider that our phone rings several times a day. We don't answer and very few leave a message on the answering machine. Those who do leave a message have some meaningful connection to us. Given the approaching election, these "empty" calls are
1) Robo-calls for a candidate or a party
2) Person calls for a candidate or a party
3) Poll calls
Also consider that many people have cell phones but no land line. Although some pollsters say they are calling both land lines and cell phones, many cell phone numbers are not in any directory. My cell phone has few calls and the two recent unknown calls may have been misdials or random spamming. Besides, I generally have it off.
Which way will those who are not reached by a poll lean? I can't really say. Will too many younger voters stay away because they didn't think Obama didn't do enough? Are those who don't answer more likely to lean toward Obama? As I write this yet another call came in that stopped after three rings.
How likely are those who respond to actually vote? One of the questions is if the respondent is a likely voter. Many people say they are likely voters because they are embarrassed to admit that they don't plan on voting.
I think the election will be determined by the balance of unhappy people, which group will stay away in larger numbers - Tea Party types who don't think Romney is "conservative" enough or "liberals" who don't think Obama did enough. My inclination is that the latter will be the larger group.
I hope you, dear reader, will not be a stay-away on election day. Please remind your friends to vote.
