I am in a bit of self back-patting remembering my blog entries in 2008 predicting the Great Recession and that Obama would be elected President.
I refer to the first in "I predicted the Great Recession", the original being "Free market is a construct, not reality", January 2008.
I predicted the second in "We now have a three-party system" in June 2008.
"I think that Obama will win in a landslide because he represents the future. He will win because he will get more people voting than ever. He will win because he has built a strong organization of average people rather than of Washington insiders. He will win because he is a better speaker and thinker. Finally, he will win because people do want change."
Once Obama was in office, too many people expected immediate results. In 2012, many of these with high-hopes didn't even show up, giving many elections to the Republicans.
Now in April 2012, I am not so sure yet, but that could change by the summer. However, I do think that if certain things happen, then Obama might not only be re-elected but he may be the first President in a long, long time to get not only a plurality of eligible voters, but a majority of eligible voters.
Those certain things are a very high Democratic turnout and a lower Republican turnout.
If the Democrats put as much energy, time, and money into getting people to show up in November as they do countering Republican campaign speeches and ads, they could get a record turnout.
If many Republicans think that Romney is not conservative enough or if they don't want to vote for a Mormon, many of these will probably not even vote in November.
If many independents think that Romney is too conservative, they may either stay away or vote for Obama.
For Obama to be the first majority President, we would need a 90% turnout in November 2012 with 60% of those who show up voting for Obama. Sixty percent of ninety percent means that 54 percent of eligible voters voted for Obama.
The reality is probably that we will be lucky to have 70% turnout with 50% of those voting for Obama, something less than that for Romney, and a few voting for Ron Paul or some other third-party candidate.
