Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Iraq is about the war on terror, but...

Many decry the war in Iraq as being for oil, especially since so many oilmen are involved in the administration. Many others say it is to fight the terrorists there rather than here.

George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, a private intelligence company, writes in America's Secret War that the invasion of Iraq was used to convince other states in the region to fight the war on terror.

Pakistan's secret service supported the Taliban. Iran didn't like the Taliban but didn't like the U.S. either. Many in Saudi Arabia funded Al Qaeda but the Saudi government didn't want to crack down on these donors and other supportive groups. The U.S. couldn't invade Saudi Arabia because that would inflame Muslims all over the world.

Plus, because of pullbacks in the Middle East going all the way back to Ronald Reagan, the U.S. was seen as weak by most of the players in the Middle East. So to "scare" everybody into cooperating in the war on terror, the U.S. felt it had to invade the guy everybody else loved to hate - Saddam Hussein.

The initial result was as Donald Rumsfeld predicted - the efficient, overwhelmingly armed U.S. forces easily defeated Saddam's army. But then things went downhill because there was no plan for the aftermath, because political appointees instead of experts were sent to govern Iraq, and because few American's really understood Iraqi society.

Now the U.S. can't stay because fewer people in America support the war, and the U.S. can't leave because other states will see the U.S. as weak.