Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Markets are like the weather, never in balance

Many tout markets as the most efficient allocators of resources. This often true, but like the weather, there is no such thing as a steady state; some development will bring wrenching and even destructive change.

I thought of this reflecting on Charles Wheelan's most recent Naked Economist column, "The Human Capital Bubble". http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/economist/167581
He says that Wall Street sucked up a lot of talent that could have been used more productively elsewhere. Now the Wall Street bubble has burst and many people must rethink what they will be doing.

If we build as if a sunny summer will be perpetual, we will be in big trouble when the imbalance in weather conditions is corrected. Our flimsy summer structures will be blown away when the hurricane or tornado strikes.

Similarly, if we act as if a particular segment of the economy will continually grow, we will be caught short when the market has enough of whatever we have to offer.