This is the title of an article in the New York Times on 2009-02-03. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/technology/companies/04cell.html
The main question is that has the explosive growth of cell phones slowed for other reasons than the recession, namely saturation of the market. Does everyone who wants a cell phone have one?
We might look to the popularity of CB radios in the late 70s as an example. It seemed everyone who wanted one had one, especially those who did a lot of driving. CB stores seemed to be everywhere. Then the chatter on them became overwhelming. It was hard to get a road report because so many people were greeting their friends. I put mine in the closet then.
The CB market got a small boost when the 40-channels models came out, but I rarely see CB antennas on anything but over-the-road trucks.
Radio Shack still sells CB radios ranging in price from $28 to $190, but most of them are available on the web only. Radio Shack now has far more shelf space devoted to cell phones.
Cell phones can't communicate with all those around you, but they certainly make getting emergency help more reliable, at least on a major highway.
Smart phones, iPhones and Blackberries, can keep sales up for a while, but at what point will everybody who wants one at the asking price have one.
I think the only way to sell more smart phones is to open up the networks to all smartphones. I know I didn't get an iPhone because I would have had to change networks. And now that I have an iPod touch, I'm not going to buy something that is not compatible with it. I think I will stick with my 2+ year old Samsung.
