After all that chipping in "Has spring sprung in Duluth?" I sat on the steps of our cabin to rest. For some reason I raised my hand and saw its shadow to the northwest. To the northwest! It's four o'clock in the afternoon. The shadow should be to the northeast. The sun must have gone backward or I slept overnight on the steps.
Well, some important evidence was hidden from me. I had a billed cap on and a tree was between me and the sun. The explanation was that the sun was reflected off a window behind me and cast the shadow in the "wrong" place.
Unfortunately, too many of us take little bits of evidence like this to prove outlandish ideas. Democrats, Republicans, Tea Partiers, progressives, atheists, religious people, business people, laborers, just about everybody including you and me.
This is what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls hidden evidence in "The Black Swan. One example is the story about the people who prayed and were saved from a shipwreck. The people who prayed and drowned were ignored as well as those who didn't pray and were saved from the shipwreck.
