Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Airlines: Lose if you win, lose if you lose

Many have complained about speculators driving up the price of oil, but few think of who the speculators might be.  Many of these speculators are fuel users who try to minimize their future fuel costs, for example, airlines and large trucking companies.  I oversimplify a bit, but they buy at today's prices to protect against tomorrow's higher prices.

If the market is indeed rising, they do win a bit because they pay a bit less than if they had waited.  Still, if fuel costs continue to go up, so do their costs, and down go their profits.  On the other hand, if the market switches direction, they are caught paying more than the market price for fuel.

See "As Hedges Go Bust, Airlines Hit by Crude Drop", Kate Kelly, CNBC, 2012-06-26.