Saturday, September 12, 2009

Which weather report to believe

As we were considering going to our cabin this weekend, I noted the conflicting weather reports. I look at three different sources: Accu-weather through a widget on my computer, Yahoo! on my iPod, and Fox News in the Duluth News Tribune.

Early in the week, one had sunny weather every day through Sunday, and another had rain every day through Sunday. The high temperatures were in the mid 70s for one and the high 60s for the other. Later in the week one had rain on Friday, the day we were leaving and sunny on Saturday, the day we were returning; the other had the weather reversed. They still had the same variance in temperature.

We drove to Brimson on Friday assuming we would have some nice weather and some not so nice weather. We had great weather both days. We had a bit of fog this morning, haze in the trees, and partly cloudy or cloudy both days. Partly cloudy was often very much that; lots of sun.

Now these are vaunted free-enterprise companies giving contradictory reports, not the "government weatherman" who people often blame for incorrect reports. One brief comment on an MPR weather report gave me an understanding for the confusion.

The report mentioned that a system was moving across the state at some given slow speed. From what little I know about weather, I assume that whatever the speed, it will not be steady. So, different forecasters will make different assumptions about when a system will arrive over an area. And of course, many systems are not large enough to cover an entire area. Not quite the comic book rain following in half-drops on the fence, but one can often see a storm one way and blue sky the other. See "It all depends on your point of view".