Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Let's not knock weather forecasters

"Blizzard bears down, a storm with heavy snow and high winds is expected to hit the Northland this afternoon" Headline, Duluth News Tribune, 2009-03-10

"Snow will persist this evening, but totals far less then expected" Online headline, Duluth News Tribune, 2009-03-10, Updated 6 p.m.

Some of the commentators to this latter article are faulting the weather forecasters for their alarmism. In general, many people fault weather forecasters for lack of "accuracy" because not as much rain fell, it was sunny when clouds were predicted, and on and on.

I would rather that weather forecasters be alarmist and give us the worst case scenario. People would really be up in arms if forecasters gave the best case scenario and the worst case happened.

The best that forecasters can do is report likely events from a complex array of weather systems. The current storm did not develop as predicted because moisture that was moving towards this area dropped it as thunderstorms farther south.

The only time I fault forecasters is when they predict clear skies and we have clouds. I can't remember any predictions like this since radar was used in weather prediction.